Thursday September 19 2024 Forecast (7:16AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

On goes the atmospheric blocking, but it has shifted just enough to allow low pressure to the south to get closer to our region, and this will give some unsettled weather to the region over the next few days. While this is a slightly slower evolution than I’d originally forecast, the basic idea is the same. The greatest impact from rainfall will be over southeastern MA and southern RI, with most areas northwest of a general line down I-95 / I-90 / I-86 staying rain-free much of this time. The maximum impact of the low pressure area’s rain shield should occur between tonight and Friday afternoon in general, but there will be impulses of “less” and “more” during the next few days, with a distinctive trend of the system being pushed back to the south by re-strengthening high pressure by early in the weekend. Region-wide dry weather returns during Saturday and continues Sunday as well as Monday. We also see a cooler regime set-up with a broad scale northeasterly air flow in general for much of this period. The autumnal equinox occurs at 8:43 a.m. EDT on Sunday – the beginning of fall – though some trees this year are already ahead of the game, letting their leaves change as a result of some cooler nights earlier this month, and some as a result of an ongoing dry spell. Boston is now sitting at its 4th-longest recorded stretch of days without measurable rain. That streak may come to an end in the next 48 hours, but we will see how much rain makes it in there.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Periodic rain is most likely east and south of a line along I-95 from southeastern NH to I-90 to I-86 (eastern and southeastern areas). Highs 66-73. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.

TONIGHT through FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain favoring far eastern and southeastern areas (east & southeast of a line from I-95 to I-90 to I-86). Areas of fog at times. Lows 51-58. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts favoring coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Lots of cloud – partial sun more possible to the north and west. Lingering rain possible near the South Coast and Cape Cod until midday. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Another trough / low pressure area brings a wet weather chance around September 25-26, based on current mid level projections of features. Dry, cooler weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Overall pattern looks dry here with some moderation briefly then another shot of cooler weather.

63 thoughts on “Thursday September 19 2024 Forecast (7:16AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Pete was on the Rain band wagon last night.

    Giudeance is mixed on how much, if any rain makes it in here. Going to be close either way.

    I am back to no measurable rain in Boston

    Time will tell.

    Reply

        1. I think they will get measurable rain (but not much) after moving into 4th place. Their measurable comes in the first 12 hours of Friday.

          Reply

  2. Top 5 stretches of no measurable rain at Boston…

    4) August-September 2024 (29 days currently) & September-October 1930 (29 days)
    3) March-April 1915 (36 days)
    2) May-June 1999 (37 days)
    1) October-November 1924 (44 days)

    Reply

    1. Lowell had 0.04″ on 8/31, so the current stretch there is on Day 19. The record is 25 days, set June 14 – July 8, 1975. The current 19 day stretch is tied for the 14th longest.

      Reply

  5. We had some stratus / light fog around here in Woburn earlier, but that’s gone, and there’s actually a fair amount of blue sky visible with thinner / clearer areas in the higher cloud deck. Even more than I’d have expected this morning. This is one sign that the guidance will have over-estimated rain near the I-95 belt. You can see the ongoing effects of the dry air eating away at the edges of the low pressure area. Chomp-chomp!

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  7. We know just like in winter. The high will win out and eat away at the precip.

    Thanks TK. Been back two weeks from Aruba and finally feeling better. Travel and illnesses is no joke.

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  8. Thanks, TK!

    We actually have some steady showers in Middleborough right now with some soft breezes moving the branches.

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  9. That band on the south shore has in it a few green and yellow dots and when we were under one, the visibility went way down and it was an extreme thick mist, perhaps even some regular rain drops.

    We have large puddles now, so I’m guessing we are well into the hundredths for rainfall, if not approaching a tenth.

    Reply

    1. Thanks Vicki. Ivy is in rough shape with her knee since Tuesday morning. Can’t walk hardly at all, so we will be staying home this year!

      Reply

  13. Thanks TK! Had a wonderful sail out in Buzzards Bay last evening out towards Cuttyhunk. Even got a peak at sunset which was an added bonus.

    Reply

  17. As we approach the equinox …..

    Ellemere Island, west of Greenland, containing Alert on its northeast coast has chilled off. Seeing readings of 16-20F this morning.

    The rest of the Arctic Circle is in the 30s to low 40s.

    The initial seedlings of winter developing.

    Reply

  19. Tom, thank you for posting the temp at Alert. Love the idea of 16-20F. In Trumpian terms, even the “concept of 16-20F” sounds good.

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    1. Unfortunately, La Nina is in better shape than it was in July and August.

      That western Caribbean might be a prime area to produce multiple systems this fall.

      Reply

  25. We were on the beach last week and a few folks were commenting how warm the water was.

    Walking out of school and there’s a breeze right off the ocean and it’s not chilly at all.

    It’s not warm, but with no sun, it’s fairly mild still and a bit humid.

    Reply

    1. The euro’s circulation looks massive even though the pressure isn’t anything extraordinary. The GFS’ circulation also looks massive with an intense low within it.

      Maybe that western Caribbean/Central America gyre is going to create a big circulation ??

      Reply

    1. After one band of showers moved through and briefly wet the ground, we’ve had partial sun out here in the NW ‘burbs.

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      1. Nice.

        Open house at the middle school tonight and as I was driving westbound on 139 back to school, could occasionally see the disk of the sun and even 1 or 2 breaks of blue.

        Solidly cloudy and kind of dark to the east.

        Reply

  29. Leaves are just giving up here in Boston.

    As large clumps drop from the trees I hear a “ah, what the hell” each time they fall to the ground. It’s kind of a sad spectacle.

    The mini torches – which is what I call the small maples that produce such beautiful foliage in autumn – are either leafless already (very unusual) or have turned a muted orange and yellow (unusual), skipping the bright red/orange entirely.

    Reply

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