Friday September 20 2024 Forecast (7:06AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

While blocking goes on, it has allowed low pressure far enough north to impact our region with clouds and some wet weather. Though we’re not in for a deluge, and could certainly use any rain that falls, we’ll see some occasional rain today and lingering into early Saturday before it dries out again from north to south. The highest rainfall amounts will occur over Cape Cod where it will rain longest from this event. A cooler northeasterly air flow will last from this unsettled period right through the dry-out period during the weekend, and it’ll definitely feel more “the season” as we welcome autumn with the occurrence of the equinox at 8:43 a.m. EDT Sunday. High pressure will keep our region dry again early next week.

TODAY / TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain and drizzle, favoring eastern and southern areas mainly east and southeast of a line from I-95 to I-90 to I-86. Highs 61-68. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering rain eastern and southern areas in the morning then trending drier. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Another trough / low pressure area brings a wet weather chance around September 25-26. Dry weather follows. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

A more zonal pattern evolves. Two frontal passages bring brief shower chances otherwise drier and a slight cooling trend.

58 thoughts on “Friday September 20 2024 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  3. Thanks TK! I wake up a thrilled Jets and Mets fan this morning. I have not had a September night like that since 2000. I will take any joy I can get at this point in the decade.

  6. Thanks, TK

    Some nice rains here this morning.
    Some pretty good gusts from time to time, too.

    Fun, stormy morning!

  8. Jaromir Jagr announced that after playing professional hockey for 37 years, this will be his final season. He’s currently playing for the team he owns in the Kladno, Czechia (He had an assist in their season opener on Wednesday). He turns 53 in February.

    He is, without a doubt, one of my all-time favorite hockey players, and has been since coming to the NHL with the Penguins in 1990. I have an extensive hockey jersey collection, and there are 2 different Jagr jerseys in there.

  10. We are up to 64 from a low of 62 overnight. DP is 61 so it’s a bit of a muggy cool temp

    We had a whopping 0.01 inch of rain….that seems to be suttons magic number this summer.

  15. I told an acquaintance of mine in Sligo, Ireland about the 28 day streak in Boston without measurable rain. He replied with some Irish humor, “well, it can be dry here for 28 straight hours … but even that’s a stretch.” I reminded him, however, of the summer of 2021 which featured incredible stretches of dry weather across Ireland, in which some places in the Eastern section of the island did not have measurable rain for a few weeks.

  18. I find it interesting that the only Pats comment was from a Jets fan (Jimmy B.). I try to scan here at least once a day but I don’t recall any comments on the blog about the Patriots (positive or negative) so far this season. Hopefully they can start winning some HOME games. The Patriots won only ONE home game all of last season if I’m not mistaken. While I hope management gives Mayo a decent chance, the team had better at the very least finish strong down the road for momentum next season.

    Why can’t the Patriots repeat their opening performance they had with the Bengals? Have injuries already piled up?

    2. Because repeat performances in sports are rare. Different teams. Different strategies. Some work. Some don’t.

      What Pats fans need to understand is this team is only going through what EVERY team goes through from time to time. We were spoiled with success for 2 decades. Wanna talk about unprecedented. We had it great for a long time. Now, it’s rebuilding time. And it’s going to take time…

      1. I absolutely agree. No team can just win all of the time and boy did we try to prove that untrue. The pats didn’t lose me because they are not winning. They lost me for reasons I’ve been really clear about.

      2. I absolutely agree with you TK. It’s going to take time no doubt. When it comes to the Patriots I always have plenty of patience. 🙂

  20. The dry air, as expected, is taking apart the northwest edge of the moisture and every time it makes a little progress, it’s given a reality check. This will continue to be the case until the system is pushed away to the south.

    Previous forecast remains unchanged.

    1. The latest from Ch. 7 has pretty much a washout tomorrow for eastern sections. Any steady rain not really ending until days end. Oh well.

      1. Also I have noticed their mets use “I-95 corridor” a lot. I suppose that is most accurate given our extensive highway system.

        1. I use it a lot. And for the ring routes I tend to specify additional details. For example, you can be outside of I-495 and north of it, west of it, or south of it, depending on where you are in relation to the highway.

          But the I-95 corridor, while not straight, is fairly easy to use as a general boundary, as is I-90, and a couple other major roads.

          What folks have to realize is when a meteorologist uses a road as a boundary, the assumption is made that there is not a sharp line between weather type A and weather type B. There’s fuzzy area near the boundary given. Weather is non-linear, and constantly changing.

          A storm is not an entity, by definition, but a region in which a certain set of processes are ongoing. The translation of this region is actually the “movement” of the “storm system”. We like to think of them and talk about them like they are entities because it makes it easier for us to visualize what’s going on in terms of impact.

  21. I think an intern wrote the NWS afternoon discussion. Ouch.

    Since when do models have forecast confidence levels? They are strictly output. They don’t “think” therefore they can’t have any level of confidence. If they are going to have someone with no experience writing these, they should at least have somebody with more experience check them. Just sayin’. 😉

    My ideas for the weather overall are the same. I’m a little less gloom & doom than some forecasts out there regarding the weekend. I do think the improvement will come a little more quickly tomorrow in areas north and west of Boston.

    I’ve noticed CPC is going to have another miss in their temp projections. They had forecast this period (today through early next week) to be WARM in comparison to normal. It will be coming in a little COOL in comparison to normal. They have a massive warm bias in that office lately, especially the further out in time the forecasts go.

    Get out several months and the entire USA is always forecast to be above normal for temps, and then they have to change it. Wasn’t like that some time ago. Maybe it’s time for a leadership change, like at NHC. Just voicing my opinion, since I help fund these operations. 😉

  22. TK – Do you agree on a Saturday “washout” for most of eastern sections? Yes I understand we need the rain anyway.

    1. I do not. I do think that southeastern MA will be in rainfall for a few hours, but I do not buy some of the guidance that generates more rain much of the day for more of eastern MA. Drier air wins, slowly, but wins nonetheless.

      Some beneficial rain for the southeast, but much of the region will still be left in need after this “event” is over.

    1. NAO is strongly negative and will continue this way for quite a while.

      Now we’re starting to see some things that I believe are related to the Atlantic Nina which mimics a -AMO, combined with the ongoing impacts of HT. There have been some meteorologists / scientists who have tossed both of these factors aside like they mean little to nothing, and I COULD NOT DISAGREE with them MORE. They are SIGNIFICANT factors not to be ignored, and much to be learned as a result.

      Our great opportunity, yet some just want to turn their back on it. I’m disappointed.

        1. Not necessarily much cooler, but often cooler, and it’s most representative of a blocking pattern, which we have.

    1. Super moon + planetary alignment. This set-up occurs up to a few times a year and if it coincides with a decent onshore flow, flooding like this will result.

      We’ve built up every square inch of that coastal area too so there is now a lot more to have notable flooding on than previously.

      One of the results of that is increased land subsidence which has been noted to be more prominent in New England than most other parts of the country.

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