Saturday September 21 2024 Forecast (8:07AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Offshore low pressure spins and sends lots of clouds and some wet weather into the region today, but a drying trend will begin from north to south this afternoon and continue tonight into Sunday, which will be the better of the 2 weekend days. Coastal areas will continue to have some flooding issues around high tides due to persistent northeast winds and astronomically high tides. The autumnal equinox occurs at 8:43 a.m. EDT on Sunday. High pressure builds in with dry weather for the beginning of the week. The next low pressure system approaches and brings a rainfall chance by midweek.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain / drizzle. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially near the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Some drizzle / rain can linger mainly south of Boston. Lows 49-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers or rain late in the day. Highs 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Low pressure brings a rain chance early in the period, followed by drier, cooler weather as it departs and high pressure returns to control.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

A trough brings a shot at showers early period, then dry weather again. Temperatures variable, averaging close to or a little above normal.

65 thoughts on “Saturday September 21 2024 Forecast (8:07AM)”

    1. Lots of stories from my mom on that. As with Carol even later, they had so little awareness of how serious or how close these storms were. My mom and her mom took the trolly from Belmont to Harvard square and then the subway into Boston. They got back to Harvard square later but the trolleys were not running. They started to walk back to Belmont. A Belmont cab driver recognized them a drove them home. My mom always felt he saved their lives.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    current rada

    https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard

    GFS and the tropical that has been depicted for days:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024092106&fh=162&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

    Up Here

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024092106&fh=201&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    6Z gfs total Precip !!!!!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024092106&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Only 11 inches or so for Boston. hmmm

    Luckily, it’s only the GFS, BUT, it has depicted this system day after day after day. Does it mean it will verify? Of course not, but something to keep an eye on for sure.

    National Hurricane Center still DOES not have anything on
    this potential system

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    1. This model has done stuff like this all season – which finally leads me to conclude with regards to fake tropicals, the most recent upgrade was also a fail. In other areas it did improve the model performance. It’s done a little better in the mid latitudes, where it’s designed to do best anyway.

    2. How are you feeling about the Cowboys ?

      Best game of the weekend, them vs the Ravens.

      Could Baltimore start 0-3, wow !?

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Light rain here in Boston. At least it’s something. And it’s been a fairly steady light rain at times.

  6. Tom mentioned Chatham coming in at 4 inches of rain thus far. Chatham had been in a very dry spell like all of us. But at the end of the day, Chatham’s September rainfall may be above normal. Shows you how quickly things can change just with one rain event.

  7. https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.c.gif

    Not for intensity, because as TK always says, it’s so much more than just warm water for tropicals.

    The gulf and western Caribbean are incredibly warm. The ocean heat available, combined with Tonga effects can create incredible rainfall.

    Combine that with a very negative NAO that offers a chance for something to get bogged down, particularly in the Deep South.

    Well, the rain opportunity in the long range in the Deep South is already concerning.

  8. Tom Cowboys defense can’t stop the run and tomorrow the Ravens are going to do a lot of that tomorrow. The same problems we had on defense last year showed up last week. Nothing was done to correct that I’m the off-season

    1. That surprising having Micah Parsons and that defensive front.

      They sure can rush the passer.

      I guess stopping the run is a different skill than pressuring the QB.

      Anyhow, I’m rooting for the Cowboys in this one, anyone who can beat the Ravens and especially the Chiefs get my vote.

  10. .22 more in the last hour or 2 at nearby Airport, 1.19 since midnight.

    Chilly, windswept soaking rain ongoing.

    The lawn has some standing water here and there.

  13. As an empath I tend to feel others’ pain, even folks I don’t know. And it’s not just a little bit of empathy. It’s a lot. It’s why I could never have become a doctor (which all 4 siblings did do). I would have been a total mess when confronted by pain, anguish and suffering. I can’t even enter a hospital building without feeling dread, even to the point of being sick.

    Oddly, this extends to things that don’t endure pain per se, like trees and vegetation. So I’m now happy for the trees and grass that they’re `suffering’ less with the rain today. I realize that this is weird. Heck, being hypersensitive can be an affliction. I’ve had it for 59 years so it’s highly unlikely to ever go away.

  14. Billerica has declared that their Yankee Doodle Homecoming festivities will go on as planned .. a day-long series of events.

    Fireworks scheduled for 8:00 p.m. … So far I think they’ll be ok. But they will bump those out every week until they get it in. Last year it landed on the 2nd weekend in November… hahaha!

  15. Good morning and thanks, TK

    Today is the 86th anniversary of the great Hurricane of 1938.
    My Mom gifted me a rare photo book of that storm and its damage along the South Coast and Rhode Island published by the New Bedford Standard-Times. The damage from the hurricane is astonishing.

    In my study of that storm, 35% of New England’s forests and woods were destroyed. That’s also the storm when the Boston Bees (later to be the Braves) actually played a doubleheader!
    The second game was called when the plywood outfield fence blew down and routine infield pop-ups ended up in the grandstands behind home plate.

    2. Wow. I did not know about the double header or fence. But I’m not surprised they played. See my story above. And what a special gift from your mom

  17. Thanks TK.

    Other than a couple sprinkles, it’s been dry as a bone here in Coventry. And doesn’t look like that rain shield is going to back far enough west to get in here this afternoon before getting eaten away.

    We are sitting at 0.37” on the month of September but still well above normal precip for the year overall ( currently at 45.71” which is about normal for the entire year here).

  19. 58 outside and getting chilly in the house. Almost time
    for sweatshirts. Don’t want to turn the heat on, but I WILL
    if it gets too uncomfortable! 🙂

      1. Heck, 80F plus certainly is a possibility, too. Not in the coming days, but who knows what October will bring. Remember October 28th last year. It was a very warm day.

        1. It can happen. Just don’t think we’ll be in the right regime to see much of it. Opportunities look limited.

      1. This is the classic mix of seasons … chilly, humid, last full day of summer, less than 24 hours away from the equinox. I love it.

        1. Agree. I do love this weather And I graduated to a long sleeve tee. Heat won’t be on here till November….i hope. But it might be fun to turn the fire on tonight.

  20. A mid level wave coming from the west is making my forecast look far too optimistic now. 😉 It’s hard to pick out, but it’s there, helping to create some additional lift, the result being a longer-lasting rain area. Some of the short range guidance depicts it when you see the rain area re-generate after it’s starting to dissipate. This holds the rain in some sections longer. It’s the weekend, which of course sucks for some, but the weather doesn’t care what we call our days, and any rain we get is beneficial, so there’s a distinctive bright side to this. 🙂

  21. I’m not saying I buy this yet, but if the GFS is correct, we pretty much eradicate the “abnormally dry” from Wednesday through Saturday next week.

    1. Depends on where you are. Under the quasi-stationary band along the I-95 belt and that general vicinity, it’s a soaker. I’ve already accepted the fact my prognostication was too optimistic. No, not the big amounts that some of the guidance was painting the other day (that’s southeast where it was expected) but nonetheless, some areas are quite wet, and other than messing up some outdoor weekend-related plans, it’s beneficial rainfall where it’s happening. We’ll take it, no matter what day it occurs. Might happen again before the coming week is over too! and followed by a cool spell, this might be a solid boost to the foliage season. 🙂

      1. Our rain seems to parallel JPDs. We have 0.47 of gentle beneficial rain. I do know some are bailing basements. I need to revisit Petey Bs map.

  23. Thinking that the Red Sox will not be starting as scheduled at 4:10. I have club seats, so it doesn’t bug me as much. I’m dry and enjoying the buffet.

  25. Of course we all know by now if this was mid-winter the precipitation shield wouldn’t get much further north than route 44. That’s usually the case. 😉

  26. The rain is relentless on the south coast – but I am missing it – on Long Island where it’s an entirely different season!

  28. I have to wonder if Tonga has struck again. Some of the rain totals on the cape exceed anything modeled and for that matter, lots of interior areas exceeded expectations.

    1. A factor IMO, but also just the orientation of the heavier rain band and lack of movement of best “wring out” area kept it right there for a long time. That’s a result of a blocked up pattern. But yes, some of the BIG rains can be attributed to Hunga Tonga. I’m finally starting to see more papers written about the impacts of this volcano by scientists, because we’re starting to learn more about it. I was disappointed when some professionals just tossed the effects of a major eruption aside like it meant little or nothing. Irresponsible science and those folks lost a lot of my respect. Oh well.

  32. New forecast post (and yup, I own my terrible weekend outlook in it – don’t feel bad for me, this is just part of predicting the future). 🙂

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