Sunday September 22 2024 Forecast (8:27AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Counting down the final minutes to summer as I write this morning’s update, when I post it there will probably be only a handful of minutes until the autumnal equinox at 8:43 a.m. EDT this morning. So, goodbye summer, and happy autumn! I’d love to say that today’s weather is going to be stellar, but clearly, low pressure put my overly-optimistic forecast for this weekend to shame, first giving us a more widespread rainfall lasting much of the day in much of the region yesterday. Some areas further to the west did miss out on the beneficial rain, and “too much” rain fell on parts of Cape Cod where 4+ inches were recorded. But overall, a beneficial rain event for many of the areas in southeastern New England that had been dry. And even today is not as “nice” as I had said. While most of the region ends up dry, it takes several more hours to rid ourselves of the rain chance in southeastern MA, and the persistent onshore flow with the storm still not that far away will hold a lot of clouds in, limiting the sun that I also forecast too optimistically for today. Additionally, coastal areas will have to deal with splashover and minor flooding at and around times of high tide due to the persistent onshore flow and still somewhat high astronomical tides. So, while we continue in a blocking pattern into the week ahead, it’s a different enough configuration that we now find ourselves on the unsettled side. That said, I do expect rain-free weather Monday and Tuesday as a weak area of high pressure does build in. However, the center of this high being to the north allows a continues broad scale onshore flow, which means it won’t be as sunny as if the high were parked atop our area. So we’ll have clouds to deal with even if no rainfall. Heading into midweek, systems move enough to allow another trough of low pressure to move our way from the Great Lakes, bringing back the rain chance by later Wednesday and most especially Thursday.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun. Shower chances continue this morning southeastern MA before ending. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Considerably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day, favoring western areas. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Highs 62-69. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Low pressure may linger around the region the first day or two of this period with more wet weather, but it’s unclear how quickly it will move out. Better chances for drier weather come mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Somewhat more zonal pattern may get going here, with quicker-passing mostly minor systems bringing brief shower chances. Temperatures variable, but no extremes.

43 thoughts on “Sunday September 22 2024 Forecast (8:27AM)”

    1. Counting it down!

      I actually have a lot of old cassette tapes bought or made over the years, and I’ve been going through them to make sure there are no versions of songs that can’t be found anywhere else, so I know to transfer those to digital before I retire them forever. This morning, at 8:00, I started a collection called “The SUMMER Tape” that literally ends at 8:43, and will be followed by a collection called “The FALL Tape”. 🙂

      I’m taking a walk with my son in the woods later this morning and we often will take my little portable speaker with instrumental tunes when we do those walks. Today’s lineup includes George Winston, Paul Winter, and Eugene Maslov, with very autumn-themed instrumental music.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    56 here earlier this morning.

    Ocean temperature fall is well on it’s way with Boston buoy down to 61.5.

    As Summer approached, that was watched for trooical system support and swimmable waters. Now it will be watched for cosatal snow support. Long way to go in that department.

  3. Today is National Ice Cream Cone Day not to be confused with National Ice Cream Day which next occurs on July 20, 2025.

    1. Well, it may be the first day of autumn, but I’ll get a cheapo McD’s soft serve cone with my son after our walk since we pass a McD’s on the drive home, and I actually like their soft serve. I get the sundae’s sometimes with a little hot fudge or caramel. It’s a nice treat without being “too much”. 🙂

    1. Thanks Jimmy! Interesting how Esther did that wide “loop-de-loop” just south of here before it eventually turned north and reached SNE. Also amazing the rainfall totals in eastern sections including Boston.

      I was alive then but have no memory whatsoever as I was just 10 months old. 🙂

    1. You might have to head to the Great Lakes, NNE, and Midwest to see snow this coming winter. 😉

      But check with me again in about 8 weeks. 🙂

      1. You mean it will be (3) THREE Craptastic non-snowy Winters in succession?

        @)(#)(!*#)(!)(@#&*)(!@*#)(!&*@#)(*!@)(#*)!(@#*()!@*#)(!*@#()*!@()#*()!@*#()!*@#()*!()@#*()!@*#()!*@#(*!@(#*!@

  11. Thanks again Jimmy for posting the “Great New England Hurricane” of 1938 anniversary yesterday. What I find interesting is that at one point briefly, the storm was a Cat #5 before it made landfall here as a Cat #3.

  12. According to Ch. 4, yesterday for the Cape was a 1 in 50 year event.

    Imagine if that was all snow: 40-80”!!!

    THAT would have made our Blizzard of 78 seem like a brief snow squall in comparison.

    1. If that was all snow, the amounts would not have been 40-80 inches, probably more like a foot or two, assuming it was cold enough.

      Colder air is unable to hold nearly as much moisture so the precipitation amount would have been far less.

    1. YIKES!!!!!

      Look at it at landfall!!!

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024092212&fh=108&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024092212&fh=108&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

      That would be a cat 4 I do believe

      Hurricane Glossary
      Category Central Pressure Winds
      3 — Extensive 945 to 964 mb or 27.91 to 28.47 in 111 to 130 mph or 97 to 113 kts
      4 — Extreme 920 to 944 mb or 27.17 to 27.88 in 131 to 155 mph or 114 to 135 kts
      5 — Catastrophic less than 920 mb or 27.17 in greater than 155 mph or 135 kts

  15. Thanks TK.

    Lovely day. I’m hearing concord NH area is greener than we are. We sure did have leaf drop yesterday.

  17. Major global guidance backs off the wetter pattern and again goes drier.

    Seeing the flip flop is not unusual in the late summer to early autumn time of year. You may hear a range of many things about guidance, but global guidance performs most poorly from late summer to mid autumn, basically the heart of tropical cyclone season.

    The guidance sets have difficulty with systems that are formed in their simulations, often quite erroneously, which are then drawn into the mid latitudes enough to very much mess up the rest of the simulation.

      1. Yes I think there is a window of opportunity for wet weather from Wednesday night through Friday (not meaning we’re wet Wednesday night through Friday – but an opportunity during that time to see some wet weather). But the uncertainty about the start of next weekend is shown as a drier trend on guidance today. I’m not just going to buy it though. Trends. If it’s still there solidly tomorrow, then I am more confident of a drier outlook for late next week. Jury’s still out.

  21. I’ll miss a month or more of this winter in Boston as I just booked my next trip to the UK (late December through late January). I’m seriously considering emigrating in a few years time, which means I might only be back for visits at a certain point. I found out that there is a way I can do this, though it isn’t easy.

    There are things I’d miss in Boston and SNE, including the weather. But in the past 30 years or so I haven’t felt as drawn to living overseas as I do now. I don’t romanticize it. There are things I won’t like over there. But I will like the general civility, less polarization, more calm and less financial worry about health- and long term care (particularly relevant as I age). Plus, my daughter lives in the UK and won’t come back to the US. And my son intends to return to where he was born, the Netherlands.

    1. 17-4 for the two games..

      8-1
      9-3

      Very much dampened the playoff hopes of Minnesota by sweeping the DH.

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