Monday September 23 2024 Forecast (7:04AM)

41 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Our weather pattern continues to be governed by blocking in the northern hemisphere, and while it allowed low pressure northward enough for some wet weather for part of the weekend, high pressure regains control for dry weather the next few days. There will be another give by high pressure starting at midweek as a trough approaches from the west, bringing wet weather Wednesday night and Thursday. Currently, it looks like the next system will be a little more west-to-east progressive underneath the blocking high so that we dry out at the end of the week. A broad scale northeasterly air flow will keep us on the cool side through midweek, with an interruption in that flow and a more variable wind as low pressure passes through, then a return to a cool north to northeast flow late week.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day, favoring western areas. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Highs 62-69. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable, eventually W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Showers end, clouds break, and patchy fog develops. Lows 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Looking ahead to the September 28-29 weekend, we must note the increasing liklihood of a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall later this week somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Sometimes moisture from such a system will waste no time streaming northward and reaching our area, but the current indications are that blocking high pressure will be strong enough to keep this away and keep our area dry. Will monitor trends for this. Pattern still looks drier now heading out of September into early October but minor front from the west may bring a brief shower interruption.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Transition from blocking to quasi-zonal may mean a bout of wet weather at some point in this period of time, but the overall pattern still looks fairly dry most of the time. Temperatures variable, but no extremes.

41 thoughts on “Monday September 23 2024 Forecast (7:04AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank uou TK

    At this point that tropical looks to be a strong cat2 or minimal cat3 Hard to tell this far out We shall see. lot’s of heat in the gulf, something to watch.

  7. Thanks, TK!

    SAK on SAR this morning!

    NWS/BOX reports 11.69″ in West Chatham!

    2.02 at my home which matches up nicely with the 1.96 at the NWS in Norton.

  9. Now, the National Hurricane Center is all over
    the new Tropical

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

    HWRF Hurrican model has a 932 MB system hitting Florida

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2024092306&fh=78

    HMON, 930 mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2024092306&fh=81

    HAFS-B 917mb !!!!!

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsb&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2024092306&fh=87

    HAFS_A 925 mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsa&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2024092306&fh=87

    Those hurricane models depict mostly a CAT 4, but one has it as a CAT 5

    These are MUCH more powerful depictions than the global models and these are specifically designed hurricane models.

    YIKES!!!! Watch out Florida!!!!!

  15. Thanks TK!

    “PTC 9” is certainly one to watch for the Gulf, really anywhere from New Orleans eastward but particularly Florida. The initial NHC forecast of a strong Cat 2 peak is definitely reasonable given the storm hasn’t even formed yet and is only going to have about 3 days to work with to get organized.

    However, in terms of “theoretical maximum” potential, a strong (Cat 4+) major hurricane is absolutely on the table. This year has proven repeatedly that SSTs and ocean heat content *do not* trump all when it comes to getting tropical cyclones. However, if other conditions are favorable, then the level of oceanic heat in the northern Caribbean and Gulf is a massive force multiplier for a potential storm. With essentially all of the higher resolution/hurricane specific guidance making this a major hurricane, I’d bet heavily on that outcome…

  18. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, until there is an actual low-level center for the models to initialize, ALL model solutions are suspect, and not to be trusted.

    Just because they all say something similar now does not mean they are right. If the low-level center forms in a different spot than where the models all show now, then all of those model runs are wrong right off the bat, and the errors only get worse the farther you go in time.

    1. Oh boy. And like you I know this is not written in stone. But it sure is interesting to follow. And to hope it scales down

  20. Tom, I’m hearing central st humarock washed out starting maybe as far back as where Barratt goes into Atlantic. Have you heard anything? I know it floods regularly at the bottom of the cliff but that is a very long stretch.

    1. I haven’t heard anything but after 5 days of astronomical high tides and onshore flow, that wouldn’t surprise me.

  21. Interesting …… Hurricane John on the Mexico coast intensified much more than predicted. 24 hrs ago, NHC projected 70 mph at landfall and it’s at 105 mph and looks much better since that update.

    It’s outflow could effect PTC 9 and it can go either way, positive or negative, depending where 9 organizes as it’s a ridge over John, then a trof followed by a ridge.

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=cam&band=09&length=24

    I think PTC 9 is further east and under a building ridge caused by John’s outflow and a retrograding closed low over the yukatan which should encourage strengthening.

  22. NHC forecast is a little less intense now. A little.
    Taking a long time to get organized. Every hour that passes is one less hour it has to grow before landfall, and I think we’ll be looking at a category 2 hurricane at landfall with a potent storm surge and decent rain swath, but less impact than some of the other storms to have hit this general area, not to downplay the danger that exists with this or any tropical cyclone. Technically, as of the last update it still isn’t one, but its in its late formative stage of becoming one, and it will be one before long. Won’t be surprised if they right to TS status by 12z.

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