Tuesday September 24 2024 Forecast (7:27AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

On goes the blocking, and our broad scale flow of air off the Atlantic continues during the next 2 days. But today there will be more sun than we saw yesterday, and tomorrow more cloudiness will return both from the ocean due to more moisture from the ocean, and from the west due to the approach of a trough. This trough will bring with it a low pressure area that will deliver showery weather later from late Wednesday night until Thursday evening, so the one really unsettled day of this 5-day period is Thursday. The system moves along and high pressure builds in from eastern Canada for dry weather to return later in the week.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches form in lower elevation locations. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Overnight showers. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Patchy fog. Highs 62-69. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Showers end, clouds break, and patchy fog develops. Lows 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 45-52. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Blocking high pressure is expected to keep tropical moisture to our south early in the period. Some remnants of that moisture combined with a trough from the west will bring a brief period of unsettled weather in the October 1-2 time window before fair weather returns. Temperatures variable, moderating early in the period, chill-down late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

A mid-period unsettled interlude as the pattern shifts from blocking to quasi-zonal (more west to east flow). Details TBD. No temperature extremes expected.

61 thoughts on “Tuesday September 24 2024 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  3. PT9 still quite disorganized. Development is slower. Potential for becoming intense diminishes with each passing hour.

    Reminder: It takes more than just “warm water” to make a hurricane. You need the right atmosphere. It’s not there at the moment. Yes it will get better and this thing will get organized, but we’re not about to see a CAT 4 or 5 hurricane slam the Gulf Coast. It’ll still be formidable nonetheless by that time and people in the path should prepare, like any other system. It’s hurricane season. Media still goes on these things about making it sound like something is wrong because the ocean / atmosphere is doing what it’s made to do! Get out of the way!

    1. At this time, the National Hurricane Center agrees with you.
      As they have this max out at a minimal cat 3 with top winds of
      115 mph.

      https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/240859.shtml

      Given that, some of the hurricane models don’t quite agree.
      Exhibit A HAFS-A

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsa&region=09L&pkg=ref&runtime=2024092406&fh=66

      Exhibit B HWRF

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=09L&pkg=ref&runtime=2024092406&fh=66

      BUT 2 models does NOT make it so.

      But I think it does beg the question: IS a more powerful system still on the table? Let’s see what the 12z runs look like.

      1. Both those models intialized a few mb too strong, and about 50 miles farther east than where NHC says the center is. Of course, there still is no low-level well defined center, so these models are guessing at where it is to start, and not guessing well.

          1. Thanks for the links. We do all know it can and undoubtedly will change but it sure is interesting go watch as it develop as time passes. It’s one of the best features I’d this blog.

  7. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=wv_mid

    PTC 9 being held in check, especially on its western half by a combination of the outflow of now Tropical storm John and a retrograding upper low over the Yukatan.

    But, look over Cuba and can see that fanning high cirrus as high pressure aloft forms over the eastern half of PTC 9.

    My opinion is that, as PTC 9 moves north and the Yukatan upper low moves further west, PTC 9 will get more centered under that forming 500 mb high, I think there will be explosive development.

    Slow development today.

    Later overnight tonight, strengthening and then tomorrow, watch out. That’s my guess.

      1. Interesting, so ALL of the NHC Hurricane Models
        F’d up at the same time. Hmmm
        So all of the logic is based on the same initialization.
        Something is wrong with that initialization process.
        What the hell good is it IF it can’t even initialize correctly???
        There is enough wrong with them WITHOUT that issue.
        NO MODEL can forecast correctly if Initialized incorrectly!!!

        WOW!

        None-the-less I feel compelled to watch closely. 🙂 🙂

        1. Not too many days ago Pete was the outlier re higher rain amounts. His areas were not accurate and he didnt see the huge numbers some areas saw but he sure saw something. Doesn’t surprise me as he has done this repeatedly. My point though is that it seems to me…..as someone with very little weather knowledge but lots of interest….that it makes sense to watch closely.

  9. Across social media, people referring to “Hurricane Helene”.

    The system isn’t even a DEPRESSION yet!!!!!

    This is annoying.

    It’s misinformation. Period. Not even debatable. These things have definitions for reasons!

  19. Thanks TK.

    PTC 9 is officially Helene as of the new advisory. But still a very sheared and disorganized system. NHC forecast a 115 mph Cat 3 peak. However, a reasonable interpolation in between 12 hour forecast points would imply a stronger peak is very much possible (and I believe likely).

    Not that there’s ever a “good” place for a major hurricane to come ashore, but my hope would be that the current forecast track holds, as much of the Florida coastal area within the forecast cone is sparsely populated.

    I do have extremely significant concern for Tampa Bay though. IMO, rightward track shifts are more likely than leftward. Worst case scenario for Tampa is a landfall just north of the city (essentially, along the very far right edge of the current cone).

      1. Helene’s forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
        size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this
        system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
        away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition,
        the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result
        in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
        southeastern United States after landfall.

        Credit to NHC. The ending paragraph of the 11am discussion.

  24. Down on Siesta Key Sarasota County, the beach staff will be there soon with a front end loader and chains to pull the life guard towers back towards the pavilion. Have seen them do it many times. They do it also in the winter time if they expect westerly gales. The same goes for Lido Beach near St Armands Circle.

  26. WxW thank you again for checking in. I was actually going to make the same 2 points that you made for me (thanks!) …

    1) Current forecast track is into a very sparsely populated area, the 2nd least-population region in the state behind the Everglades. I remember media ignored this on a recent system and made it sound like the entire population of the state was about to be washed away (one reason why I despise mainstream media including TWC). Not the case. Yes, bad where it hits, and people will be effected, but assuming a correct forecast track, it’s kind of a best-case scenario.

    2) I also agree with right-ward track shifts being more likely, and this does raise my concern level a little bit for those populated areas further south, especially since they’ll be on the stronger side of the storm even without a direct landfall over them. Any shift to the right (east) is not good, so let’s hope it’s not in the cards.

    Again, thank you!

    1. 🙂

      Thanks TK! Agreed. So far, seems like the track is holding, but I won’t feel comfortable on it til at least this time tomorrow. Even though it’s officially a TS now, the center is still ill-defined. Not that I’d expect wholesale changes, but if the center reforms or gets tugged around by convection, it could easily shift things 50-100 miles. IMO, the current models are too tightly clustered/under-dispersive versus reality.

      Ironically, in an effort to “perfect” weather models, what we’re really doing is making them more and more alike each other. And while that does result in overall better forecasts, you also get a lot of model group-think where if one’s wrong, they’re all wrong, even in ensembles. And the models tend to shift together, not independent of one another. Sometimes you need those apparent outlier solutions in the 3-5 day range that are actually on to something. Sandy comes to mind… we don’t see that much anymore.

  27. I have watched several forecasters on ch. 5 today with forecasts for rain this week. Morning outlook was under half inch of rain while afternoon/evening outlook was over an inch. Is this due to new forecast or new forecaster? Are Mets urged to side with station (chief met or group consensus) outlook as long as there are no major changes or do they have carte Blanche?

    2. You were likely just seeing output from two different models, or two different runs of the same model. A lot of the TV presentations include raw model data now which as I have made very clear I am NOT in agreement with. I think it’s a very poor practice in fact. The models, as guidance, should be used by the forecaster, to aid in coming up with a forecast, that should be presented as its own graphic. There is no practical use for showing model output on a TV weathercast, as 95% or greater of the viewers are not going to garner the most useful information from them. But they are being directed to show the animations of the models because that’s the “in” thing. This is why I’d never be hired if I wanted to work on TV. I’d battle management to do what’s right and they’d show me the door before the interview started. Also, I’m too old. 😉

      One map, a forecast graphic. Or an animation that is a creation of the forecaster, not one run of a model.

      If I’m on there, I am showing MY forecast, not the NAM’s.

      1. Exactly why I have always suspected the same for Pete and why he is not head met. We know damned well he should be. But he has always forecast as he sees it. And can be an outlier, and darned if he isn’t usually on the mark. Corporate doesn’t care about accuracy. It just cares about number.a

  29. Not a “hidden” hazard per se with watches already up, but a less front-of-mind concern with Helene could be potentially devastating inland flooding effects over Georgia and the Carolinas. There’s potential for a 1-2 punch of a predecessor rain event and then Helene itself. If the track does end up taking Helene into rural portions of the Florida panhandle or Big Bend, this could become the number one issue…

  30. Love this New York Times article on the White Sox season. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/24/magazine/chicago-white-sox-loss-record.html

    Mind you, the White Sox were in the playoffs in 2021. And now, well, they’re headed for the worst season a team has ever had.

    I do wish the White Sox fans well. The diehards have suffered a lot. People forget that they’ve only won the World Series 3 times: In 1906, 1917 and then 88 years later in 2005. The Chicago Cubs had an even longer drought between 2 WS victories in 1907 and 1908 and then their only other championship in 2016. Both teams also suffered from decades of mediocrity or worse.

    We in Boston greatly exaggerate our “curse” and our team’s fortunes, even during the 86 year drought. We fielded quite a few very competitive teams but just didn’t win it all between 1918 and 2004.

      1. Whether Babe Ruth actually placed a “curse” on the Red Sox is probably debatable but I do wonder if, in fact he was “pissed off” (at least at first) about the trade to the Yankees, for the rights to a silly play (“No, No Nanette”) no less. 😉

    2. A lot of Boston fans are really cranky. Not all of them, but a lot of them. 😛

      It’s kind of funny watching some people implode because the Pats are not going to be forever what they were for 2 DECADES. 😉

      I’m still a fan. 🙂

  31. This storm is going to be more like some of our big wider larger storms more similar to the 2000s than our recent storms with smaller cores. Storm surge is going to be a major problem with this storm regardless of how strong it gets

    1. also does anyone on here have any experience with visa applications, its turned out to be the more difficult thing in terms of getting over to Australia

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