Thursday September 26 2024 Forecast (7:10AM)

126 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Today is our most unsettled day this week with some beneficial showers to be had as a warm front scoots through this morning then a cold front follows it this afternoon and evening, parented by a low pressure wave passing just north of the region. Some of the rainfall associated with the system can be on the heavy side, and it’ll be just unstable enough that embedded thunderstorms are also possible. Keep all this in mind when traveling about today, especially this afternoon and evening. High pressure to the north builds in Friday and holds through the weekend into Monday. This system will clear the region out tomorrow, though some cloudiness and very early morning showers can linger closer to the South Coast. Hurricane Helene, a devastating storm battering the eastern Gulf of Mexico and parts of the southeastern US, will spread the northern portion of its cloud shield into our region Friday night into the weekend, but the blocking high will keep the rain well away from our region into early next week.

TODAY: Cloudy. Showers arriving and becoming more frequent during the day, including the chance of some downpours and embedded thunder later. Highs 61-68. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Lingering showers mostly south of I-90 overnight. Areas of fog developing. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Early morning showers exit the South Coast as clouds diminish. Sun and passing clouds mid morning on. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High clouds increasing south to north. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High clouds decrease north to south. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered to brighter sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

A trough from the west delivers a good shower / rain chance later October 1 into October 2, and a front late in the period brings another shower chance. Variable temperatures – no extremes.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Pattern looks fairly dry with a slow transition to a more zonal flow. Variable temperatures – might be a significant cool shot included.

126 thoughts on “Thursday September 26 2024 Forecast (7:10AM)”

  1. Helene took even longer to organize. Still a major storm at landfall. Won’t be a category 4 though. And still finding some good news in that some of the worst of the storm surge occurs in one of the least-populated areas of the state. Why won’t main stream media talk about these things? This is a legitimate and valid question, but if I asked them, I’d never get an answer. šŸ˜‰

    1. My guess is, they don’t get their own meteorologists involved enough. The left hand doesn’t talk to the right kind of idea.

      They are going off the bigger released items out there and though it has come down, the NHC had last night forecast 130 mph winds and thus, the story becomes, Helene forecast to become monster Cat 4.

      But, if they took the time to check in with their local Met, then the Met hopefully could do what you did above.

  2. Most of the warm front rainfall went north of here – just a few showers around last night. That part of the system under-produced. Shift is now to the slow-moving cold front which I am pretty certain will produce more widespread rainfall during today (mostly midday on) and this evening.

    1. Indeed. We did get our standard 0.01. I do wish I had tracked how many times that was our daily total through summer and now fall

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I think I noticed a shift East in Helene’s track from some guidance. Tampa may now experience some surge. we shall see.

    1. latest nhc discussion has it max out at 115 mph, just barely a cat 3. something happened. TK said longer to organize.
      What about that dry air from yesterday? cause of delay?

      1. Perhaps …..

        Also, shear size I think. WxWatcher talked at some point about this. Same energy as a smaller, much more intense system, but spread out over a larger area.

  6. It should be noted that the large blob of convection well north of Helene’s center may further slow its intensification by acting as an inflow disruption today. Technically, that’s good news.

      1. The environment around the storm has never been ideal until only the last several hours, so it’s still in the process of “organizing”.

  16. Andrew Benintendi, remember him? He plays for the lowly White Sox (38 wins this year; probably on their way to becoming the worst MLB team in history as far as losses are concerned). Quite the difference between when he was the starting left fielder during Boston’s historic 2018 run (108 wins; .667 winning percentage). BUT, Benintendi, a ,228 hitter this season, has had 3 walkoff, game-winning hits for the White Sox this season, including last night’s game. That’s kind of an incredible stat.

  18. Thanks TK.

    Heleneā€™s delayed intensification is a silver lining, but itā€™s important to keep perspective. Itā€™ll probably be a Cat 3 or even ā€œjustā€ a strong 2 at landfall, a 4 seems unlikely but canā€™t be totally ruled out.

    The bigger issue though is itā€™s really not about wind with a storm like this. Keep in mind whatā€™s causing the concern: Helene is going to be captured and accelerated northward by the unseasonably deep trough/cut-off low over the Tennessee Valley. That acceleration combined with its huge size will bring devastating impacts well inland. This is very much a Sandy or 1938 ā€œExpressā€ type situation, but happening at a lower latitude. The impacts over places like interior Georgia and upstate South Carolina are going to be exceptional.

    Still, from a track perspective, the center and peak surge moving in where it will is absolutely a blessing. Thereā€™s never a ā€œgoodā€ place for it but youā€™d obviously rather see as little population area as possible affected. Even Tallahassee, whereā€™s thereā€™s a lot of concern, is going to be spared a worse blow by being just to the left of track.

    2. Thsnk you, WxW. I have dear friends in north central SC. I will send this to them. Along with prayers for all in her path.

      1. I have family around Asheville (not right by the airport). Looks as though theyā€™re expecting around 8 inches in 48 hours.

  26. Is Helene part 1 of a 2 part story ?

    We’ll have time to watch.

    In the long term, many models developing something else in the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.

  27. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1609A-HELENE.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1609A-HELENE_timeseries.png

    First time I’ve seen graph 2 have 955 mbs as its low number, so I’m guessing Helene is under 960 mb

    Also, in the first graph, each successive pass thru the right quadrant has more and more 96-113 kt observed winds (lightest purple color). More northerly passes are more current obs in the flight pattern. There are clearly many more as time is passing.

  29. Looking at the radar, I am not convinced we are going to get much rain after all. What is happening? Eric last night noted heavier rain NW of Boston beginning around this time. Or is it too early to say?

    2. Timing is a little later for the best instability to arrive and by then the frontal boundary is nearly at the South Coast. Heaviest rain will occur in that region, but it doesn’t prevent the rest of the region from seeing some embedded downpours / thunder in the showery weather of the evening.

      Never really though this would be a “big” producer. Up to around 1.00 inch tops.

    1. Ongoing PRE there. Models did a decent job forecasting this. Lots of rain to come for some of those areas.

      2. I use Firefox. I’ve noticed that I can open these links fine in a normal window. But if I try to open them in private window I get that error.

        1. Interesting. Thank you. I use Firefox on my computer. But I rarely open the computer any more. I have safari on my devices but rarely have trouble opening; and when I do, others cannot open either. The private window is interesting. I am just opening from here. But who knows what recent updates have done

  35. While everyone is pay attention to the Gulf/Caribbean at Day 10, we’ve got an interesting model battle going on up here. On Saturday 10/5, the ECMWF has highs in the 70s to near 80 here, while the GFS keeps it in the 50s all day, with frost at night in the suburbs.

    1. Please please please please give us a heavy frost. We need to kill these mosquitoes. Although it is early enough they may return

      1. If it ever comes in at 940 ish mb, interior GA along and east of itā€™s eye are going to be in for a shock.

        You could conceivably get a storm still around 970 mb in Atlanta because itā€™s moving so fast.

        Maybe just 1-3 hrs but what a 1-3 hrs just east of the center.

        1. Similar to what charlotte got from Hugo?? Macā€™s aunts home and surrounding area was a mess with downed trees and wires.

          1. Yes in the sense of considerable inland impact from wind. Whether charlotte gets hit this go around from wind, Iā€™m not sure but theyā€™ll get rains, I believe.

            1. Thank you. Sorry. I didnā€™t mean Charlotte this time but was just using Hugoā€™s FAR inland destruction to Helene. I was not at all clear

  38. Literally, every 5 min update of the satellite of Helene looks better.

    Nightmare scenario developing.

    Itā€™s explosively intensifying.

    Cat 4 and a pressure sub 940 mb quite possible in the next 3-4 hrs before landfall.

  39. I think borderline CAT 4 (upper CAT 3) at landfall, just east of St. Mark’s Light (my guess where the center crosses). Still puts the worst of the surge into a sparsely populated area which is a positive thing in a relative sense. But as previously noted, the large size of the storm and its quick movement adds other issues in a big way, so nothing “easy” about this one for sure.

  40. SClarke, I copied the link and backed out of whw and cleared all memory and loaded the link for tropicaltidbits. It loaded. Now when I open the links here, they work. Almost as if I had to teach safari šŸ™„

  43. Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
    620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

    …HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…

    A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum central pressure has also decreased to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.

    1. Realistically, there’s really no difference between an upper CAT 3 and low end CAT 4. it’s about where it’s going to be at landfall now.

  47. The radar simulation Iā€™m seeing on TWC shows the center eventually going near the TN/western NC border, still a strong circulation.

    My goodness, imagine E and SE winds with 70s dps being risen up the southern appalachians. It may only last a couple hrs at its peak, but what kind of rainfall rates will that generate ?

  48. Core of Helene is starting to suffer as it approaches the coast and will actually be in the process of weakening before landfall, but I don’t think you’ll see that reported anywhere. They’ll avoid it to make sure nobody lets their guard down since even with weakening it’s still extremely dangerous.

    1. I have a huge smile here. If not for you, Iā€™d definitely forger to do just that. Thank you. Again ā¤ļø

    1. The first few preseason games are nothing but tryouts for the maybes.

      They can win 10-0, lose 10-0, or have a scoreless tie, and it all means exactly the same thing. šŸ™‚

      1. Exactly. But one interesting piece is that they are dropping the gloves in a preseason game. I just don’t feel it’s the most prudent thing to do. I realize that everyone wants to serve notice before the regular season starts, but I do not like it.

        1. They’ve always done that. It’s to show the coaching staff you’re willing to do what it takes to help the team.

    1. Helene just ran over this buoy…26 foot waves. With the fast forward motion, that surge is about to come in fast and furious in the Big Bend region

      1. Yup.

        Cedar key is at a 5+ ft surge, the wind is 50 knots from the SE, offshore. Another 20 degree hacking of the wind or so and that should jump to +10 – 15 ft

  53. Interesting watching that dry air take a massive bite out of Helene’s eye wall. North side looks perfect. South side is non-existent.

    1. On the northeast side, I think I am seeing Cat 1 level winds but I do not think I am seeing anything higher. Not sure if I am looking at this the right way.

  55. I think the partial eyewall on Helene likely represents the early stages of extratropical transition. Itā€™s still a hurricane and will obviously make landfall as one, but that transition process begins much earlier in a storms lifecycle as it begins to accelerate northward and interact with mid-latitude features. Youā€™ll have hellacious conditions in that northern semi-circle then not a whole lot on the south side.

    Impact-wise, everything is baked in at this point. Indications from the hurricane hunters are that if anything the pressure may still be falling slightly (I.e., still deepening) but itā€™s all a wash now. There will be no fluctuations in intensity from this point forward that have any impact on surge, inland wind, or inland flooding.

  57. Seeing a 938 mb on the latest pass in the eye.

    In the satellite, the hurricane continues to look great on Dvorak.

    In infrared, it makes me wonder if Helene is doing an eye wall replacement leading into landfall.

    The clear eye is not circular, but I think itā€™s circulating in a slightly wider eye that has a lighter shade of color on the infrared ?? Maybe not.

  58. I join TK in a bit of a rant. Chad Myers (?) on cnn said Helene will have an Impact of 150 miles inland which is further than he has ever seen before. He is old enough to have seen hugo. Not diminishing the severe impact of Helene, but be honest. He has seen it before

    Now I will take my own advice and stop listening

  61. Closer to home, the short range guidance nailed the reintensification of the low topped convective line toward the South Coast after a brief lull. HRRR was particularly good. That’s a pre-frontal trough. The actual front is the other weaker band to the north of there, about to come through the WHW forecast area.

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