Friday September 27 2024 Forecast (7:19AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

A cold front has pushed through and the last of any showers associated with it near the South Coast come to an end early today. The cloud canopy associated with the front is a little slower to depart and will do so gradually from northwest to southeast during this morning and midday, and just as it exits, a shield of high clouds on the northern fringes of Helene will start to appear in our sky from south to north. This cloud shield will dim the sun Saturday and Sunday, and a northeasterly air flow can also push a few lower clouds in from the ocean. Other than those clouds to contend with, the next several days will be rather nice around here with dry, pleasant conditions, in stark contrast to the major issues created by Hurricane Helene in the southeastern US. Thankfully a blocking pattern in place prevents that storm from coming right up here in any formidable fashion. Yes, we need rain still, but an open pattern could have allowed such a storm with already a lot of forward speed to maintain some decent strength and cross the Southeast and come up the coast. Not the case here. The remnant low sits over the lower Ohio Valley this weekend and some of the remnant moisture peels off to the east and stays well south of New England while high pressure to our north keeps us dry through Monday. It is on Tuesday when things start to move a little more, and a mid latitude trough starts to approach from the west. Our next shot at wet weather from this system, and some of the remaining moisture formerly associated with Helene to the south, comes as this system sends moisture at us from the west and south later Tuesday.

TODAY: Any early showers end South Coast, and clouds give way to sun northwest to southeast. Highs 64-71. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds increasing south to north. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High clouds cover the sky. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear except patchy radiation fog in low elevation locations. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain chance late. Highs 65-72. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Wet weather chance October 2 with passing trough. Mostly dry pattern follows this with only a minor shower threat around October 5 from a front moving through.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Pattern looks fairly dry with a slow transition to a more zonal flow. Variable temperatures – might be a significant cool shot and frost chances.

65 thoughts on “Friday September 27 2024 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    So what wasc it that caused the site to be down? Was judt able ti get in a momrnt ago.

  3. Some history from the WGC for late September…

    9/26/1963: Downslope Santa Ana winds up to 50 MPH. Hottest day on record (since 1874) at San Diego CA. Temperature at 8 a.m. was already 95! High temp was 111! Schools closed, workers sent home. Many crops damaged / destroyed by unusual heat. Many animals succumbed to the heat. Strong offshore wind resulted a water temperature drop from 70 to 64 due to upwelling.

    9/27/1983: A hot, dry September lead to bone dry prairies in the Upper Plains. Today, high temps in the mid to upper 90s and strong southerly winds as well as thunderstorms with little to no rain but lots of lightning resulted in a major wildfire northwest of Reliance SD. 25,000 acres of grassland would be consumed. At peak, the fire was burning in an area 10 by 14 miles.

  4. Cedar Key guage maxed at a 13 ft reading and at that time, it was a 10,34ft surge breaking the max record I believe from Idalia only a year ago.

  5. Interesting that they are still asking their reporters on TWC to make it look worse than it is by fake-struggling in wind. This guy is not a good actor. 😉 He should take lessons from Mike S. Listen, if it’s not as bad as you hyped it to be in a given location, just SAY SO! Or here’s a better idea, dispense with the hype and keep it real. They never learn this lesson…

  6. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024092700&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024092700&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024092700&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    With the MDR being unproductive because the train wave was so bizarrely far to the north across central Africa, looks like the tropics are going to now release some of the heat …. and we saw what Helene did and here are some long range 00z signals for perhaps another one. GFS, GDPS and Euro

    1. Thanks. I received the craziest message when I tried to get on
      just prior to 7AM and for about 1/2 hour before I could finally get on. 🙂

  9. Siesta completely under water. I’ve been going there for twenty years. I’m reading the reports from there. Planning to go in October again. I’m hoping everything will be cleaned up.

    1. My college buddy and his wife boarded up their home, tied up their boat and evacuated Siesta Key to Miami on Wednesday.

      1. Before the live cam cut out around 9 last night, the lifeguard chairs on Siesta Key beach were nearly under water!

    2. Our neighbors moved from Lunenburg to Rutherfordton, SC two weeks ago. That’s about 35 miles SE of Asheville. I haven’t talked to them, but I imagine this is quite a welcome.

  15. The French Broad River at Asheville is at just over 16 feet now. Our family is without power (like 2/3 of the county), but otherwise okay.

    Vicki, how are your friends in SC making out?

    1. Thank heavens your family is all right. My SC friend’s granddaughter is interested in UNC Asheville so the name caught my attention. Thank you for asking. My friends have a large tree down but thank heavens it fell away from the house.

      Prayers continue for your family and all in Helene’s wake.

  18. Thanks for the notes about the error messages. I believe the issue is resolved, but we will see. Let me know of any other issues with speed or access.

    2. Sure, I remember Gloria.

      Hardly rained here at all with that storm.

      I mostly remember it being very muggy with gusty breezes and occasional rain showers.

  24. So this event is a good example of one that doesn’t happen quite that often.

    Most hurricanes don’t move that quickly coming through the Gulf. This one did.

    This hurricane was larger in size than average. Most are smaller.

    This hurricane was going post-tropical earlier than average. Most do not.

    The PRE on this one was more impressive than the average PRE due to ideal conditions, which set up the flooding issues we’ve seen.

    This was the first CAT 4 to landfall in the Big Bend area and take that trajectory since 1896. Compare today’s population and infrastructure throughout the ENTIRE area to 1896. That’s right. There is no comparison.

    Important to keep this in mind when we use phrases like “worst ever” etc. “Worst observed” is far more accurate. “Ever” indicates a very long time that is not really relevant to our period of observation.

    That said, a major impact event we have just seen (and still ongoing). Sadly, when you have long periods of time before these events, you’re going to have more built in places that will be destroyed when nature does what nature does. We’re seeing that now. It’s similar to what happens with multi-million dollar homes on the sides of mountains in CA when we have wildfires and mudslides. Those are going to happen. Or huge buildup along the coast that will eventually get hammered by a major hurricane. Those are going to happen.

    But as always, it’s important to bring perspective to these events, so I will continue to do that on a routine basis here, and other places on social media.

    On a non-weather note, mom is doing well in rehab. She slept through most of my visit today which indicates that they had her working hard on PT, which is good. She needs that!

    2 1/2 weeks (approximately) to go.

  25. Minor rant: Someone sent me a social media video today in which a fake-met made a now widely seen video that FL would be getting 2 more hurricanes, because he picked out a model run that showed a low pressure area coming from the Gulf to near the western border of the Panhandle, and another low to the southwest of FL at the end of the run (384) nowhere near FL.

    To say this is irresponsible is a major understatement. It’s fear mongering. And this is one of the types of things that makes me wish model data was not available to the general public. I know this wouldn’t be fair to the many responsible people that love to view the information and talk about it, without spreading hype and misinforming people. Which is what makes it even more sad. I really wish these tools were out of the hands of these idiots, because it’s really, REALLY infuriating.

      1. It’s not “fake” in that it’s an actual model run, but just throwing it there without context is not something I’m in favor of. I never have been nor will I ever be. Because models were meant originally as tools for the meteorologist. When they are just “out there” they get shared like they are legit forecasts to be believed and they are being seen by people who don’t know the specifics of what these tools are for, and their limitations.

        So while the post isn’t fake, the post can be very misinforming or at the very least majorly misinterpreted.

        Best example I can give you is…

        That person posts that run and says what is said there.

        Next run comes out and has a completely different output with no tropical at all.

        I post that run and say “No further tropical threats for Florida in sight!” …

        That’s not how it’s done. It’s misuse of guidance.

      1. I feel very strongly about this, and rightfully so. Folks like myself, SAK, JMA, WxWatcher, etc., have worked hard to get to the level of knowledge we have, and things like this totally undermine it. I said it before and I’ll say it again, I’ll defend the profession whether or not I’m actively working in it.

        1. I suspect we all feel strongly. It wss my reaction when I saw this but need3d to check. And then saw your comment. My good heavens…..the southern part of this country is a horrific disaster area. This is beyond cruel

  26. Ok, gear shift, something to mention for upcoming fun…

    Definitely wanna do the snowfall contest again, and this season I’d like to get all the guesses in by the end of October. I’ll post more about this SOON! 🙂

    P.S. Really, really like Dominic on NBC 10. One of the best presenters I have seen.

  27. Thanks Jimmy for posting the anniversary of Hurricane Gloria in 1985. I remember her well. It was the first hurricane I personally had to deal with. Very little rain fell in Boston but my neighborhood lost power for 12 hours or so. If I recall correctly, the power went out around mid afternoon then came back on very early the next morning prior to daybreak.

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