Saturday September 28 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

The next 3 days, the final 3 days of September, we will have our weather controlled by high pressure and low pressure. Elaboration follows. Our sensible weather, or “sense-able” conditions, what we can feel, will be controlled by high pressure to our north, which provides dry weather, comfortable air, and a light onshore (easterly air flow). Our visible weather, or the sky condition, will be controlled by the low pressure area that was once Hurricane Helene – a storm that brought devastating flooding to parts of the southeastern US, but now spins over the lower Ohio Valley as a remnant low, partially trapped in the ongoing blocking pattern. While the surface feature is spinning around out there, mid and upper level winds have peeled a lot of the remaining moisture off the system and blown it eastward while its expansion and momentum carried it northward as well. For our region, what this resulted in was a high cloud shield that overspread the sky Friday afternoon and a continuation of high (and some middle) clouds across the sky often in abundance the next few days. But much of the time during the day these clouds will be thin enough to allow some sunshine, or even provide a nice sunrise such as much of the region saw just a short while before I started writing this update. Here lies another example of the range of conditions one weather system can bring – from devastating flooding to picturesque sunrise. This is nature – brutality and beauty, often occurring simultaneously. My thoughts are with the storm’s victims. For our area, once we get through these 3 fairly similar weather days, and welcome October, we will see a turn to more unsettled weather for the final 2 days of this forecast period which are also the first 2 days of the new month. Tuesday, clouds thicken ahead of a trough from the west and moisture from the south – some of this being the “remainder of the remains” of Helene. This brings us a chance of some wet weather Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks to our south and a cold front cruises by from the west. At days 4 & 5 in the forecast I still have to sort out some details with this, but my initial feeling is that the bulk of the moisture from the redevelopment of Helene’s remnant low will track just to our south while the cold front brings a brief period of wet weather, focused on Wednesday.

TODAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds cover the sky. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: High clouds hang on. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Weakening blocking / quasi-zonal flow. High pressure brings fair, cooler weather October 3 and a milder October 4. Quick-moving front brings brief shower chance October 5. Another high pressure brings dry weather back after that but if systems move quickly enough the next shower threat may already arrive before the end of the period around October 7.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A zonal flow pattern should be more established at this point with fair weather sandwiching a mid-period unsettled interlude with a passing trough. We’ll be watching for the first frost for some areas in this time frame.

33 thoughts on “Saturday September 28 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  3. In more positive news, a good portion of northern New England received 1.00 to 2.50 inches of beneficial rain from the midweek event! They needed it.

  4. Thank you TK. Also, thanks for your ongoing Helene analysis commentary and posting the rain results. The totals in NC look unreal!

  7. Good morning and thank youTK.

    loomo g over the reports from that link above leaves me wondering….

    How can there be no reports of wind gusts over 100 mph in Florida when it was A Cat 4 hurricane at landfall???
    Serms strange to me. Perry was close to where it made landfall. Surely it shoukd have at least gusted over 100 at that location. What gives here.????????
    Was it even a Cat 4?

    1. There is this note before the FL wind data:
      “Selected preliminary Peak Wind gusts in miles per hour earlier
      in the event”

      This suggests that these numbers don’t include what happened later in the storm’s passage. Maybe communication problems limit what information is available right now.

    2. A lot can be speculated here. I suspect given how disorganized the core became before landfall, it probably had dropped below CAT 4, technically, and if there were wind gusts over 100, they likely did not occur at any recording sites. That’s a very sparsely populated area.

      There were media reports that Helene was strengthening right up to landfall, but I am pretty certain this was NOT the case, and that the storm was actually weakening for the last several hours before landfall. That said, a weakening core still has no impact on the wide-reaching devastation due to flooding. Even tropical depressions have done things like that, as you well know.

      1. I have often felt focus on just wind speed tends to downplay the focus on rain totals which can often be more devastating than wind damage.

        1. Over the years (and still now), there is a media-driven focus on 2 particular things that indeed take away from other aspects…

          1) As you stated, wind speed / category.
          2) Track of the exact center of the storm.

          As we know, and see again here, the top winds and the conditions at the exact center of the storm were not the biggest impact. Yes, it was nasty right where that thing came ashore, but the low population density there limited property damage significantly. The disaster is many, many times worse, many many miles from there due to the tremendous rainfall experienced in the hills and mountains / valleys of the region.

          1. And the surge as I understand down the coast. Sure shows how the area where it comes ashore doesn’t define its potential destruction

      2. Thank you for this. The disclaimer said
        …Selected preliminary Peak Wind gusts in miles per hour earlier in the event…

        So I suspect Perry received gust well in excess of 100 mph later into the storm.

  10. This tweet by Eric caught my attention. I well remember getting up early on Labor Day weekend in Rangeley to fish in temps 32 or just below.

    “While Caribou, ME is about to set a new mark for longest wait for a low in the 30s, Boston is working on a similar streak. Will be the longest consecutive stretch of nights 50F+ on record. No chance until next weekend at the earliest”

    https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1839821279517356466?s=46

    1. And on the same note, I’d love to get back to the overnight 40s we had been having here. Fingers crossed for tonight

  13. Thanks TK! Sending this from the shore of Moosehead Lake in Grenville Maine where we are surrounded by fall in abundance

    1. IF there’s a next one in the long range, the early signals are maybe an approaching trof may send its moisture up this way. Hopefully it misses the appalachians and in particular Asheville nc area.

  16. We’re camping down by the sagamore bridge.

    Onshore e wind.

    That creates what felt like a cool day but now, a mild evening.

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