Sunday September 29 2024 Forecast (8:18AM)

39 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Not really any changes to write about after yesterday’s forecast update. High pressure to the north and low pressure to the south remain in place as the pattern remains in a blocking configuration. This puts us in a light flow of air off the Atlantic and while an abundance of ocean stratus dominate the lower levels, above that are mid and high level clouds associated with what was Hurricane Helene. The surface low from that system remains quasi-stationary in the Ohio Valley / Tennessee Valley region but will drift eastward the next few days. Our weather here doesn’t change much through Monday from the initial set-up described above. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure gives way to a trough from the west. Most of the moisture from the low pressure area to the south will stay south of New England and we’ll just see a round of showers Wednesday from a frontal system coming through the region. This exits and high pressure builds back in by Thursday with fair, seasonable early autumn weather.

TODAY / TONIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Considerably cloudy. Partial sun possible daytimes. Patchy ground fog possible nighttime hours. Highs 64-71. Lows 50-57. Wind often E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Weakening blocking / quasi-zonal flow. High pressure shifts east for a fair, milder October 4. Quick moving trough brings a rain shower chance October 5. Dry October 6. Unsettled weather chance returns at the end of the period. Some up and down temps but no extremes indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Brief interruptions from passing disturbances in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with a westerly flow more dominant. No temperature extremes.

39 thoughts on “Sunday September 29 2024 Forecast (8:18AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    6z gfs has now lost the tropical sysyem for the Gulf.

    Nhc has reduced chance from 40 to 10 %.

    1. And yes, this is why my rant the other day was 100% spot on.
      I don’t like to sound egotistical, but I’m not wrong about that stuff. It’s a problem. 🙂

        1. I was going to make one, but coming out of my walk at the pond I was craving a little sweet, so I got a free nutty pumpkin iced coffee (hazelnut / pumpkin spice mix) — free with purchase, so I got a pumpkin muffin to satisfy that little craving.

          The last 2 Sundays I have gone up to one of my favorite area farms for fresh cider donuts, so I’ll skip that today and go up next Saturday after Woburn’s rare daytime football game. 🙂

            1. I once helped name a dessert for a local ice cream place that I don’t think exists anymore.

              “Blake’s Nor’Easter” did exist at one point in the 1990s, and I had a hand in naming it. 🙂

  9. My mind had me thimkjg warmer ocean might mean more hurricanes. But I ran across this last night…..in all places on Heather Cox Richardson’s post. She had an interesting timeline of weather service progression. A bit political only at the end but something I think would be worrisome.

    Anyway. As always I digress. So maybe not more hurricanes but stronger ones.

    NOAA hurricane scientist Jeff Masters noted that Helene’s landfall “gives the U.S. a record eight Cat 4 or Cat 5 Atlantic hurricane landfalls in the past eight years (2017–2024), seven of them being continental U.S. landfalls. That’s as many Cat 4 and 5 landfalls as occurred in the prior 57 years.”

    https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/09/four-ways-climate-change-likely-made-hurricane-helene-worse/

  10. Thanks TK.

    Unbelievable devastation from Helene. It really was as feared in that the coastal impacts, while locally significant, were secondary to the catastrophic impacts far inland. There are many reasons why it was as bad as it was, but I think that discussion is best saved for after folks there get the help they need.

    It’s quite likely at this point that New England will go yet another year not only without a hurricane impact, but without even a hint of a threat the entire season. When’s the last time there was even a reasonable chance that a hurricane may take aim at the region inside the 5-7 day range? I honestly don’t remember, I guess Irene in 2011? Which was of course a huge disaster, but not in the traditional hurricane sense. Just an unbelievable hurricane drought for a region that is clearly not ready for when that day comes…

    1. I was very concerned about the inland Southeast flooding over the coastal impacts so long as that hurricane came ashore in that sparsely populated area, which it did.

      This is another lesson for us though. And I agree completely with what you said.

    2. The last threat was Hurricane Lee just last year. We had Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cape and Islands with Hurricane Watches for eastern Maine and Nova Scotia. It ended up just east of us, crossing southwestern Nova Scotia before going into New Brunswick.

      1. Eh, that doesn’t cut it in my book. Lee was a large storm that passed well, well offshore and never showed legitimate indicators of being a hurricane threat to SNE, but had TS conditions well away from its center. Looks like the region was briefly on the edge of the cone, but there was never any real concern.

        But what constitutes a “legitimate threat” is obviously subjective. You could count Lee and probably others, but I don’t think the general population has been “concerned” since Irene.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    End of an era as Joe Castiglione says goodbye. See tweet below. The last day of the Red Sox season is one of the hardest for me every year. I love baseball more than any other sport. Had the Sox gone 0 and 162 I still would miss them. It’s what being a diehard fan is all about. But with Castiglione bidding us adieu it makes today that much harder. https://x.com/tylermilliken_/status/1840467061283397984

  14. I have friends whose son is in NC. His car is under water; can’t go anywhere to get necessities; and no electricity. VERY bad news.

    1. So sorry I can’t imagine how worried your friends are. I don’t know how long it will take to get to all of these areas let alone how they can do it

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Our family members are okay. They got cell service back, but neither power nor water. Today, unlike yesterday, they are able to drive out of their neighborhood, so they’re heading out to stay with some other relatives until water service is restored.
    I’m just grateful they didn’t get flooded!

    1. Wonderful news. Thank you for updating.

      My SC friends do not have power. I have not heard from them today but assume they are persevering cell battery.

      I pray everyone’s family members and friends in the area are safe

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