DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)
Our weather will trend milder the next few days. This happens even with a cold front moving into and across the region later today, because as this front does this, it’s losing definition due to lack of contrast between the air mass ahead of it, of marine origin, and the air mass behind it, modified polar air. The only thing the front is going to do is add some additional mid and high level clouds to the sky from west to east later, as we finally see the low level clouds from the ocean diminish while we lose the day’s long easterly air flow. High pressure will control the weather Thursday and Friday with a warmer southerly air flow, though not strong. A cold front will swing through the region during the first 12 hours of Saturday, bringing a rain shower threat for a brief period of time as it passes each location. Much of (and in some areas all of) Saturday will be rain-free, with more sun in the afternoon than in the morning. High pressure means a stellar Sunday, but clouds will start moving in late ahead of the next disturbance.
TODAY: Variably cloudy – most sunshine eastern half of region afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 48-55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 51-58. Wind S under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers through midday. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)
Next disturbance brings a rain shower chance October 7. Fair weather but a shot of much cooler air follows this October 8-9. Next disturbance brings a rain shower chance October 10 before fair weather returns at the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Brief unsettled weather threats in a predominantly dry weather pattern. Increasing chances of significant chilly air from Canada and first frosts / freezes in portions of the region.
Thanks TK !
Good morning and thank you TK
56 here this morning.
gfs has once again lost the tropical in the Gulf.
Thanks TK
Thanks, TK.
0Z CMC/GDPS still has the Gulf tropical
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024100200&fh=192&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=
National Hurricane Center has removed ANY chances at all
for a tropical in the Gulf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
agreed, for the next 2 days 🙂
I’m still seeing the NHC identifying an area for 40% chance of development looking 7 days out.
AHHHH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
I keep missing the 2 day vs 7 day
I’m not sure we’re headed for a true tropocal system of any kind.
Seems hints of something more of a stalled frontal boundary with waves of low pressure along it.
Could be big rains though somewhere on the FL peninsula.
Thus the 40%
I think ALL political candidates on both sides of the aisle can be accused of word salads. It kind of goes with the territory.
But Donald Trump’s potpourri on climate change yesterday was, shall we say, quite interesting:
“The planet has actually gotten little bit cooler recently. Climate change covers everything. It can rain, it can be dry, it can be hot, it can be cold. Climate change. I believe I really am an environmentalist. I’ve gotten environmental awards.”
Oh dear heavens.
He gets the award for idiot of the year!!!
After yesterday listening to him openly and knowingly telling the folks who are dealing with the loss of everything they own, that their governors were not getting help from the federal government, IMO idiot is too kind
Apologies for the political rant. Please feel free to remove TK
He gets a “Half True” here, which is actually quite an improvement over the usual situation!
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2017/apr/06/donald-trump/trumps-environmental-awards-closer-look/
Well there is a surprise. I didn’t know he had a half truth in him.
He doesn’t know what truth means. If his lios are flapping, he’s Lying!!!!
He did have a half, but he used it up on this 🙂
Hahahaha.
And that’s not fair. I’m trying to behave.
For the record SClarke made me do it 😀 😉
Thanks TK
We dropped to 49 overnight and are at 66 now. Quite lovely.
Ecoside in Ukraine: A river is now completely dead as a result of deliberate contamination. Yet another war crime committed by Putin’s Russia. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/ukraine-seim-river-poisoning-chernihiv-ecocide-
Inexplicably, given the geopolitical ramifications for our allies throughout Europe, Ukraine was never even brought up by the moderators at last night vice-presidential debate.
I was surprised that it wasn’t
Biggest sports story these days is the Detroit Tigers. Estimated to have a 0.6% chance of making the playoffs on August 11th, they have done something truly amazing since then by going 32 and 12 the rest of the regular season. That’s an MLB best record during that stretch. And now the Tigers are 6 outs away from advancing to the next round by beating the Astros. It hasn’t happened yet, but it might. They won game 1 of the best of 3 and are up 5-2 in the 8th inning of game 2. Both games are in Houston.
It’s over. Detroit eliminates the Astros. Wow! Go Tigers!
I know every Yankees fan is happy right now the Astros have been eliminated.
Yay for you JJ!!
Is North a Yankees fan too. Or u may have made that up. Mark? Where is Mark. I miss seeing him here. Hope all is ok
I’m here…been very busy but still reading every day.
Also happy the Yankees aren’t playing the Astros in the first round. Though they weren’t nearly the team this season that they were in the past when the Yankees lost to them.
Also ready at last for the start of hockey season! Islanders open at home next week against the new Utah hockey team.
Awesome to see your name pop up. Glad you have not gone far and hope life settles down for you in time to track snow.
Be well!!!!
New fcst post…