Friday October 4 2024 Forecast (7:27AM)

29 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

A changing weather pattern means we say goodbye to our current mild stretch soon in favor of a cooler regime. But before that we have a few more days of above normal temperatures. Today will be the warmest of the next 3. A weak cold front will knock it down only slightly for the weekend as it passes by early Saturday with a minimal rain shower threat, so other than that at the very start, we’re in for a fair and mild weekend. Clouds return later Sunday though ahead of a stronger cold front, which brings a better rain shower chance mainly the first half of Monday, and a turn to significantly cooler weather by later Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Patchy radiation fog early, otherwise sun filtered through high clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thicker clouds arrive west to east. A rain shower chance toward dawn. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds and a rain shower chance first thing in the morning eastern areas, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny except some eastern coastal clouds possible. Highs 65-72. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 55-62. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely in the morning. Clouds break for sun at times afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Cool northwest flow and other than a potential diurnal pop up rain shower October 9 and or 10 it looks dry for this period. Some areas away from urban locations and the coastline can see their first frost before next week ends.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Brief unsettled weather threats in a predominantly dry weather pattern. Temperatures variable but averaging below normal with better chance of additional frosts and first freeze for some locations.

29 thoughts on “Friday October 4 2024 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  5. Thank you,
    I have several houseplants on my deck, and your forecast is helping to plan when I should repor them and bring them inside.

  7. I wouldn’t expect a lot of rain from the Monday system. The current pattern reminds me of one we were in a few years ago, and is typical of a developing La Nina, where we are dry. The models see a system that looks like a good rain producer 5-7 days out, and as we get closer they continue to back off and back off, until suddenly it’s just a few widely scattered showers. Tonight’s system is a good example of that.

    “When in drought, leave it out”

  9. Interesting, the 12z models a bit more aggressive with something organizing in the Bay of Campeche and heading ENE towards FL.

    Whereas it had been multiple lows in the low 1,000 mbs, seem to be getting something in the mid-high 980mbs on the 12z runs, (so far)

            1. This is one time I pray the models are wrong. If I’m understanding you and reading your links correctly, that would be disastrous

  10. Too many clouds for northern lights tonight. And also for my moms God’s fingernail moon on her birthday 🙁

  11. Thanks TK! Great weather for playoff baseball. How about my amazing Mets!! That was a win for the ages last night against the Brewers with that 9th inning three run home run!

  12. The first game of the doubleheader on Monday between the Mets and Braves was one of the best regular season games I have seen in a while.

    1. And …… because it’s October and not August, overall pressures are a little higher across the US, so even if the system has a small core, it might have a big wind field due to pressure gradients.

  14. I can’t believe the ramp up on the models in the last 24 hrs.

    From a string of 1,002 mb lows to potentially an impactful hurricane. 20-40 mb stronger than 36 hrs ago.

    1. Because each time initial data is entered, it’s basically started from zero again. If initialization is different because conditions are different somewhere than they were expected to be just hours before, the simulation result can be quite drastic. This still doesn’t mean it’s “correct”, especially on one run (in this case operational runs vs ensembles).

  15. From the Hurricane Center
    70% chance of formation in the next 48 hours
    90% chance of formation in the next seven days

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