Saturday October 5 2024 Forecast (8:31AM)

59 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Our mild pattern is on its way out, but will take a couple days to fully replace. A weak cold front moving through the region first thing this morning brings a few rain showers (even a few morning rainbows – I just photographed one in Woburn!), and then it clears out and we have a mild day ahead with plenty of midday and afternoon sunshine! High pressure builds north of the area Sunday, and this will result in an onshore air flow Sunday which will likely drive some ocean stratus into at least coastal areas, and maybe some distance inland as well, robbing the region of potential sun. At the same time, later in the day, high and mid level clouds will be increasing from the west ahead of an approaching low pressure trough. This trough will arrive late at night and be with us Monday. A frontal boundary will move across the region but a wave of low pressure forming on it will prolong the unsettled weather much of the day. Despite a longer episode of cloudiness and potential rain showers, the rainfall amounts don’t look very impressive from that system. We could use more beneficial rain to battle the building abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions in the region. Beneficial rain or not, we will get a solid shot of chilly air behind that system heading toward the middle of next week.

TODAY: Clouds and scattered rain showers eastern areas into mid morning, then sun returns west to east. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, becoming limited by midday. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 55-62. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Cool, dry weather through mid period. A later-period warm up may lead to a rain shower chance as the next trough moves into the region end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

No outlook changes. Brief unsettled weather threats in a predominantly dry weather pattern. Temperatures variable but averaging below normal with better chance of additional frosts and first freeze for some locations.

59 thoughts on “Saturday October 5 2024 Forecast (8:31AM)”

  3. The writer of this morning’s NWS forecast discussion committed one of the increasingly common phrase errors that is like nails on a chalkboard for me…

    See if you can spot it. Ouch. “Generally dry weather is expected…but given shortwave energy and cold pool aloft expect a lot of strato-cu during the afternoons. There may be a brief spot shower or two…but for all intensive purposes it will mainly be dry.”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Watch out gulf coast of Florida.

    All 3 najor global models have a hurrixane from cat 1 to cat 3.

    1. And last week they insisted that the Caribbean energy would generate that storm by Friday (as in yesterday). How many of them had the low sitting in the SW Gulf of Mexico now instead? Just because all the models have it now doesn’t mean anything.

      Looking at the members of the Euro Ensemble, at Day 6, they have it anywhere from still over the Yucatan or just north of it, to near Bermuda, with pressures ranging from 973 to 1005. That’s an awful lot of spread for just 6 days for both track and intensity , and the GFS Ensemble is pretty similar. That’s WAY too much spread for me to have a lot of confidence in the operational models at this point.

      1. Looks like advisories will be starting on TD14 at 11am, but I still don’t have a lot of confidence in the track and intensity.

  7. Thanks TK

    Since we have a coyote family, I got a baby (or maybe coyote) gate to put across the opening on our deck. I was all set to head out last night with all lights off, but too many clouds to watch for northern lights.

  9. From one of our politicians. I’m trying not to be political so won’t attribute. It’s an exact tweet. Blue check mark and all.

    “Yes they can control the weather.

    It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done.”

    So hey guys and gals here…hop to it 🙂

    1. Well, I know that Majorie Taylor Greeene has claimed that
      the DEMS are controlling the weather!!!! Could there be a more STUPID politician in this country? Wait, she is credited as having attended the University of Georgia. WOW!! Really??? What was her major? Sand Box????? What a complete MORON!!!!!! She DISGUSTS ME!!!!

      Don’t forget that SHE claimed it was Jewish Lasers that started the forest fires out West a few years ago.!!! MY God, what an IDIOT!!!!

  10. Thanks TK.

    The prolonged dryness in your neck of the woods and down into my old stomping ground in the mid-Atlantic is becoming rather notable. Luckily it’s at a time of year where the immediate impacts are not as great, but it’s certainly going to drive increasing precip deficits. Though my early feeling is that winter probably ends up near to above normal on precip over most of the East.

    1. I was thinking of you when I posted below. Although heaven only knows if if I got all the tweets right. You have quite a mess our your way.

      And of near or above normal for East means snow……yay

      1. I didn’t specify snow… but then again, I also didn’t ~not~ specify snow did I 😉

        Hi Vicki! And thanks for posting about the exceptional heat out West!

  11. A series of tweets. Eric is right. It’s bonkers. Hoping I got the correct graphic with the correct tweet. But tweet links are included too

    Eric

    What’s going on out west is absolutely bonkers

    10 record highs in a row…and every one of these next 6 days in the forecast is another record high. More than 2 straight weeks with record highs every day

    NWS phoenix

    Another record bites the dust! This is now the 10th day in a row with a record high temperature in Phoenix. The high of 109 degrees breaks previous record of 105 degrees set in 1988 and 2020. Our normal high temperature for today’s date is 94 degrees.

    https://ibb.co/fYTD7b4

    https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1842021096075227282?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

  12. I don’t have a lot of confidence on the future of TD 14 either. I’m a little skeptical of some of the higher end intensity projections.

    Still, the potential for a strong or even major hurricane to make landfall somewhere from Tampa southward is not something to take lightly at all. That would be a catastrophic outcome, a legitimate nightmare scenario especially in the wake of Helene.

    1. Curious to know your reasons for lack of confidence?
      Shear? Dry air? Lack or organization? Not enough divergence aloft?
      Many thanks

      1. Just not a very conventional setup for a major hurricane. Very little/almost no historical precedent for a storm like that, an eastward moving hurricane cutting across the entire Gulf. And, I do think shear will present a problem especially later in the storm’s life, though if it gets strong enough in the meantime, it could still bring major impacts even if weakening on approach.

        1. Fair enough. Thank you. I appreciate the response.

          But Nature has a way of doing what it wants, even if against conventional wisdom. Let us hope this does not materialize or if it does, it stays minimal.

  13. To piggyback on Vicki’s posts about the extreme heat over the West right now… another thing that’s doing is leading to a major surge in wildfire activity over the West. It’s common for Southern California to deal with fire activity deep into the fall, but much less so over the interior West, which is actually where things are really bad right now, California is relatively ok on fire activity at the moment. No winds here (yet).

    But, you’ve got a situation where many of the resources that would be dedicated to firefighting have either been laid off for the season (many federal firefighting and related positions are seasonal and expire at the end of the fiscal year on 9/30). Or, you’ve got huge numbers of them committed to disaster recovery from Helene. The emergency response system is at a breaking point. Something like TD 14/future Milton, or a big Santa Ana wind event in SoCal, could be the straw that breaks the camels back…

    1. This is heartbreaking.

      Your resources comments brought back a 1989 memory. Mac’s family was in Framingham for a reunion. His parents from NE of Charleston. His brother and family from Oakland at the time. My guess is hugo and the collapse of the bay bridge in Oakland. By BILs concern was also resources being taken from Hugo but knowing it was necessary to relocate.

      1. Well I didn’t even finish a sentence that time.

        In my head it said “ My guess is you remember 1989 and hugo and the collapse of the bay bridge in Oakland.”

    1. I saw that a bit ago and found it interesting that this is during the Jewish holidays and, as reminded by a friend, Milton is not an unfamiliar name

      2. “Milton The Monster” was an old Saturday morning cartoon show back in the 1960s. Never watched it though.

        Wouldn’t it be ironic though if that named storm turned into an (M) Cat 3+ event?

      1. A friend said a met she listened to had it at a cat 3 when it went on shore in FL

        Terrifying. And hi Mark

  20. Oh my goodness. I’m on deck watching for northern lights and just saw a something very bright heading to earth in ENE sky. Wow

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