Sunday October 6 2024 Forecast (8:26AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure brings fair weather today but its center to our north allows a low level air flow from the northeast, which will bring some ocean clouds into coastal areas, most especially Cape Cod, limiting the sun at times. This afternoon, you’ll notice some high level clouds starting to move in from the west and northwest ahead of an approaching trough. A surface low associated with this feature will pass to our north on Monday, dragging its warm front quietly through in the pre-dawn hours, but a more productive cold front follows this from west to east across the region during Monday. While shower activity will be widespread, rainfall amounts will likely be unimpressive, with under 1/2 inch of rain expected for most of the region. A few embedded heavier showers could push a few areas over 1/2 inch of rain. Overall, this will be a non-beneficial event to battle the building abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions now observed in much of southern New England, and beyond this, another dry stretch looms. Other than an isolated spot afternoon shower from an upper level disturbance passing by on Wednesday, expect dry weather and below normal temperatures Tuesday through midweek as a polar airmass from Canada moves in. There will be frost potential away from urban and immediate coastal areas this week, the best potential for it being Wednesday morning with a combination of light wind and clear sky allowing the best radiational cooling. There may be too much wind Thursday morning for a legitimate shot other than the lowest elevation locations.

TODAY: Sunshine but interrupted by coastal clouds especially Cape Cod. Highs 62-69, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 except colder in some inland lower elevations and milder in urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A slight chance of a passing light rain shower mainly late-day. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Some up and down temps but the overall trend is near to below normal. Two troughs / frontal systems should pass by, one around the October 12-13 weekend with limited moisture and rain shower chances – probably just dry, and a second one in the October 14-15 window with a better rain shower chance. Our weather pattern is not conducive to bringing beneficial moisture from the tropics up here.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Again no major changes. Some of the medium range guidance has hinted at a larger scale trough and storm system making its way into the East at some point but this doesn’t immediately mean major changes here. We may see a stronger warm up / cool down cycle with one significant rain event during the transition, but this is a long way out and many days to monitor and fine-tune that part of the outlook.

56 thoughts on “Sunday October 6 2024 Forecast (8:26AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Pressure starting to drop quite a bit when the hurricane hunters investigated this morning. Down to 991mb.

  2. Some thoughts on Milton, not to “downplay” its potential impact, but to point out some issues with media coverage and add my own thoughts.

    The media-driven notion of a repeat is false. This system is extremely unlikely to have any significant impact on any areas impacted by Helene. The weather set-up drives the storm further south. Yes it may be bad for those areas, but on the bright side it’s not a repeat for areas that saw what they saw from the previous event. Period. The media needs to stop giving this notion to people vulnerable to hype. It causes unnecessary anxiety at the expense of clicks, and shares. And it’s wrong. Cut it out media! Stick to the event upcoming and its most likely course / impact. Some are doing this, so they get my praise.

    As for Milton. Different from Helene in several ways. Much smaller system. Does this give it the potential to intensify more quickly than forecast? Sure does. But that doesn’t save it from vulnerability to other impacts. Many less experienced forecasters may be forgetting some of the negative forces set to act on the system as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico, especially later in its journey (toward landfall). Others will simply ignore those factors to the hype can be turned up to 10. Milton is going to be encountering a frontal boundary associated with a mid latitude trough, increasing wind shear, and dry air intrusion as it heads toward FL. Any or all of these can act to interrupt its circulation, and at least a couple of them probably will. Milton may very well be in the process of already weakening and undergoing transition to post-tropical before it makes landfall. And let’s say that these factors are less impactful. The smaller size of the hurricane already lessens the full impact zone, which while not good news for those IN the zone, it’s good news for those just outside of it who might be more severely impacted by a larger storm. Additionally, there is some chance that Milton’s track shifts even further south with a somewhat under-forecast impact of the mid latitude system. There is an area of lesser population density between the Tampa cluster and the Fort Myers cluster, which again would not be good news for those between the two, but it would bring the population impact number down. Again, this storm will be bad news for somewhere, but there are many secenarios in play that it’s “not as bad as it could have been”. Time, of course, will tell, so everybody in Florida needs to pay close attention to the evolution and forecast trends, and I mean forecast trends from TRUSTED SOURCES, not just some random weather nut posting hyped up crap on social media. (It was pleasing to hear more of the local media outlets warning their viewers about this kind of information – we need MORE of that!!!)

  3. Vicki I forgot to reply on the previous blog so here…

    You likely saw a fairly bright Orionid meteor. We’re in this particular meteor shower now and it got rather active last evening for a while.

    2. Thank you. I had planned to ask if we were in a meteor shower. It seems Tom and I may have seen the same one.

      Coolest part was that It had been a long time since I sat out at night. I always look up and chat with Mac. More in my thoughts than out loud. As soon as I finished our chat, the meteor appeared. ❤️

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Down to 47 here this morning 1st time under 50 this season.

    Tk, thank you for the discussion on Milton. Most models now clearly depict the weakening towards landfalll.. most have it as a Cat 1 by the time it hits Florida.

    Except for the GFs.

    1. NHC still project it to be a major hurricane.
      Are they still slow to make forecast adjustments????

  8. Saturday night is movie night in our house.
    Last night’s selection was “The Book Thief”
    Wow! What a movie. Very well done and acting was superb!
    There is much to this movie that is very relatable to now. I won’t
    get into details. Excellent!!!!

  9. Back to the orionid meteor shower. I searched for this because I had a feeling it was connected somehow to Cassiopeia. It was directly overhead and very bright last night too. My grandkids who were outside with me saw it too.

  11. Current model trends “seem” to be targeting the Tampa Bay area of Florida for Landfall. Depending upon strength, this could be
    very serious. We shall see and continue to monitor.

    NHC continues to increase the intensity of Milton. Now projecting up to 125mph

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/061458.shtml

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145937.shtml?cone#contents

    Milton beginning to look pretty healthy

    https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

      2. Back to not being able to open tidbits. A friends mom is in Venice. She just got back to normal from Ian (I think it was Ian). No place is great but hoping for her he doesn’t go ashore at Venice. Hoping even more that influences WxW and TK mentioned with weaken him

  14. Thanks TK.

    Still a lot of questions on Milton. A much more difficult forecast versus Helene. In terms of kinda what I’m seeing:

    – Definitely a south trend. Good news for Tampa, since a worst case scenario for them would be a landfall north of the city. However, there are still plenty of ensemble solutions indicating a more northward bend in the longer term track even as the short term track shifts decidedly south. Tampa’s far from out of the woods, and unfortunately, there is a lot of population south of Tampa as well. For Florida, this won’t be a case like Helene where the center hits in a rural area, unless it somehow finds its way south of Naples.

    – Short term intensity: Milton is well on its way to becoming a major hurricane and is probably already rapidly intensifying. This thing will be a buzzsaw within 36 hours and will probably peak stronger than the current NHC forecast suggests.

    – Longer range intensity: Some of the modeled weakening rates as Milton approaches Florida are as impressive as the modeled strengthening rates in the next 36 hours. I think the latest NHC discussion covers this well, a lot of uncertainty. Of course, if it weakens enough and essentially collapses on approach, that’ll be great news. But if it’s more just a gradual weakening and also an increase in size, that will be of limited help.

    The lack of hurricane watches on the Florida coast 72 hours out from landfall is very puzzling to me.

  16. Thanks, TK.

    Lovely October day, the kind you want to wrap up as a gift and save.

    On football, seeing two dysfunctional teams play isn’t exactly fun. I have it on in the background on mute. But maybe Brissett can lead them down the field for the win. … Unlikely. We’ll see.

    1. Joshua – I have a completely unrelated question.

      My son will be in Maastricht, Netherlands for 10 days this month for his work. He expects to have some free time. If you’re familiar with this area, can you recommend anything that he should not miss while he’s there. He’s 20 years old and a mechanical engineer. He’s very interested in things related to science and technology. He also loves the outdoors – things like climbing and hiking.

      Thanks!

      1. Maastricht is a beautiful small city. I used to know it very well. But that was in the 1980s. My ex-wife is from there.

        If your son is at all interested in religious art, Maastricht is THE city in the Netherlands for that. It is a predominantly Catholic city, with spectacularly ornate Romanesque, baroque and gothic churches in the heart of town. I went to a Christmas midnight mass at one of them. I can’t recall which. The place was packed. I was probably the only Jew in the building. Nonetheless, the priest personally wished me and everyone else a “Zalig Kerstfeest” which is a Southern Dutch way of saying “Merry Christmas.” He stood outside the church shaking pretty much everyone’s hand.

        The architecture is unlike most Dutch cities in that it is an eclectic blend of medieval, renaissance and some 19th century structures. Cobblestone pathways throughout the city center.

        The province of Limburg is the only hilly region in the Netherlands. There are plenty of really beautiful hikes, including climbing the tallest hill just adjacent to the city: Sint Pietersberg. It’s 560 feet above sea level. Great views of the city. To the south is Belgium, the east is Germany.

        Then, fairly close to the city is the drielandenpunt (or three country point) on another named hill, the Vaalserberg. Its summit is 1,056 feet above sea level. You can step into 3 different countries within about a 6 foot radius. I used to like biking or hiking there and sitting at one of the cafes drinking Leeuw (Lion) beer from Limburg.

        The Maastricht treaty in 1992 established the Euro, which is the currency now used in 20 countries. An amazing feat of monetary union.

        The museum of illusions is really interesting. https://maastricht.museumofillusions.nl/

        And this museum is good, too. https://www.nhmmaastricht.nl/english/

        The people in Maastricht are friendly and soft-spoken. they’re also very well-dressed (I often felt like I was underdressed there; of course, casual is fine and many people will dress casually, but practically anyone older than, say, 40, looks very well groomed and stylish).

    1. SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
      ———————————————-
      LOCATION…22.5N 94.0W
      ABOUT 290 MI…465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
      ABOUT 815 MI…1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
      PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB…29.18 INCHES

  19. Milton could be a real problem storm. Not liking what I am seeing at all!

    Boston sports teams need ownership / management changes.

    2. And the one (Celtics) that doesn’t, is going to be getting a new owner. Darned Wyc Grousbeck’s dad ! 🙂

  22. We spoke about the potential for Milton to strengthen exceedingly rapidly due to its small size. This is the case.

    By the same token, it can also weaken rather rapidly, and I suspect this will also be the case PRIOR to landfall, for the reasons I gave this morning. That thinking has not changed.

  23. Thanks, TK!

    My college buddy and his wife live in Siesta Key. After a week of assessing, they have to decided to remodel their home. They are waiting to see what happens with Milton. Most in his neighborhood lost their homes and will have to rebuild. He guesses the storm surge was eight feet where he is.

    On a much happier note, we spoke last night after our Vanderbilt Commodores beat the Number One Alabama Crimson Tide in Vandy’s greatest football win ever!!!

    The Vanderbilt students stormed the field, tore down the goalpost, carried it out of the stadium and three miles through Nashville streets, down to Lower Broadway and threw the goalpost into the Cumberland River!!!

    https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/41631913

    Anchor Down!!!!!

  24. SClarke, the weather in Maastricht is different from, say, Amsterdam. Not a dramatic difference, but enough to at least be aware of. Compared to Amsterdam, Maastricht is colder in winter and warmer in summer. It’s about as far inland as one can go in the Netherlands, which means it’s a bit less influenced by the sea/ocean.

    1. Right now the forecast for his time there is highs mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s and 40s at night.

  28. Thanks TK! My son is driving to Florida Gulf Coast University in Fort Myers from Minnesota after purchasing a car there. I am telling him to home tight in Tennessee once he arrives there tonight – he said FGCU is already under evacuation orders beginning Tuesday. I fear the direct west to east movement and landfall could play out badly for those in the bullseye

  29. That 4am CT advisory, pressure 972 mb, wait until the next one !

    Pressure is now about 955 mb and the winds are probably about 120-130 mph per most recent recon plane data.

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