Monday October 7 2024 Forecast (6:57AM)

184 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

A cold front crosses the region from west to east today with a round of showers, fairly good coverage but not too heavy with rainfall amounts mostly under 1/2 inch. A few areas could see an embedded downpour, even a thunderstorm, and receive over 1/2 inch, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The trend for showers ending and clouds breaking will develop from west to east during mid to late afternoon after the front passes. A cooler westerly to northwesterly air flow arrives tonight through Tuesday as a Canadian air mass arrives and brings the true feel of fall. A high pressure bubble moves across the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday, providing an opportunity for radiational cooling the the first frost for many interior areas (away from coastal areas and urban centers). With an upper level trough driving the weather pattern, and a secondary cold front to pass by Wednesday night / early Thursday, some clouds move through and a more active breeze should prevent any frost formation during that period, but I suspect any shower activity will stay north of our area as the air mass will be very dry both ahead of and behind that front. Thursday will be the coolest day of the week – cool air combined with a continued active breeze. Friday will see moderation with plenty of sun and less wind, though it will be quite chilly to start the day before a nice temperature recovery occurs.

TODAY: A hint of sun eastern areas at sunrise and breaks of sun late-day favoring areas west of I-95, otherwise mainly cloudy with episodes of rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W from west to east during midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of frost inland lower elevations. Lows 38-45 except colder in some inland lower elevations and milder in urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny through midday. Some clouds arrive west to east later. Highs 59-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW>

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42 except milder in urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Holiday Weekend Outlook: Saturday October 12 looks dry and mild with a west wind and high pressure ridge building. Sunday October 13 looks rain-free but clouds may show up ahead of the next trough. Monday October 14 shows indications of unsettled weather with a trough bringing a rain chance. Fair and cooler weather returns later in the period behind that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

A mid period interruption of unsettled weather is a potential with fair weather otherwise continuing its dominance. Temperatures will be variable but not all that far from what would be expected overall.

184 thoughts on “Monday October 7 2024 Forecast (6:57AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    So far, any shower activity this morning apoears to be only associated with the warm front and none with the cold front.

    Milton is getting stronger. NHC still has nax strength 145, but cat3 strength atclandfall. gloval models gave it low cat 2 or high cat 1 at landfakl, exceot gfs which stll has cat3.
    Huuricane models strengthen Milton to a 5 with either cat 4 or cat 3 ar labdfall.

    Are the globals onto sonething the hurrucane nodels are nissing?

    Seems NHC is going with the hurricane models.

    We shall see. So far landfall projected to be between Tampa and St. Petee/Ft. Meyers.

  7. JpDave, to your question above, I am inclined to give more weight to the global models because its October and I’d think they are going to handle Milton’s interaction with a mid latitude trof better than the hurricane models will.

    Not only for track, but depending on the orientation of the trof and location of Milton within it, that can positively or negatively affect outflow (ie the environment Milton is in)

    I get the idea the global models keep the environment aloft better for Milton almost up to landfall, where the hurricane models start a more hostile environment a bit sooner.

    1. That sounds reasonable. Wonder IF NHC is giving too much weight to the hurricabe models? Plus, they appear to be very slow to adjus.t We shall see.
      Waiting on those 12z runs.

  8. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0714A-MILTON_timeseries.png

    Can see on Milton’s EKG, how much smaller it is than Helene.

    Very sharp V.

    The negative on Milton is ……. all the recent storm surges on FL’s west coast have been with the storm tracking parallel to the coastline.

    Milton, while not coming in perfectly perpendicular to the coast, may make landfall at around 60-70 degrees of hitting the coast.

    Ian similarly didn’t track parallel to the coast, it came in about the same track angle Milton would come in at.

    So, Milton may have a smaller storm surge coverage, but an intense one where it comes in.

  16. Weather.us/radar showing some lightning strikes SW of Plymouth and a bunch of lightning on the south coast.

  18. I don’t know how accurate this is, but I just received notification on my phone that MILTON is now a CATEGORY 4 hurricane!!!

      1. How much weakening? A 5 to a 3 OR a 5 to a 2 OR a 5 to a 1?
        Rather large differences there.

        It seems NHC has settled on a CAT 3 at landfall. Do you think that is too generous or reasonable?

        Thanks

      2. The drop-off in intensity near landfall seems sharp to me. Not saying it won’t happen and maybe it’s more normal than I think.

  19. Yup, correct JpDave.

    2 special update advisories in last 3 hrs.

    Pressure is in free fall. Top of wind graph is 135 and 155 knots and the east quadrant had winds btwn those 2 values.

    In next 10-20 minutes, about to get another recon plane pass thru the center.

  20. Back in Massachusetts, first time being back in fall since the height of the pandemic in 2020. I Usually been back during Christmas or a week in the Summer.

    Hurricane Milton continues the targeting of the CAG to the west coast of Florida. I hope everyone listens to evacuation orders etc. Its a cat 4 right now likely going to end up a cat 5 but like TK said above will likely decrease but at this point it doesn’t really matter if it weakens or not.

    In terms of the Patriots, man do they have a discipline/behavior issue on and off the field. This is connected to the so called “new culture” of the patriots and is linked to the coach and front office.

    With that said
    Oline needs alot of work, but I honestly think a better qb might hide some of these issues. Brisett holds onto the ball way to long, and never leads a wide receiver opened. There are also wide open wide receivers and he is missing him even when there was not much pressure. I have a feeling by later this month we see Drake Maye.

    Defense needs to do better at tackling!!!

    Hadi, I think your team got a gem at qb.

      1. yeah I am heading over either November 13th or whenever my student visa goes through. In the meantime, living with my parents, saving up money and seeing family and friends here

  21. Projecting ahead, say Milton is a strong 4, 100 miles from landfall, or about 6 – 8 hrs to landfall.

    It landfalls as a weak cat 3.

    The storm surge is likely to be that of a system closer to a 4.

    Once the surge is established fairly close to shore, its not a magical snap of the finger that it immediately ramps down to proportional to the weakened system. Momentum and size of the surge probably has lag time to be in proportion to the intensity of the system. Both ways.

  22. We’ll have to wait for the extrapolated pressure to be calculated, but I see a 933.8 mb from the recon plane in the eye.

  23. Hi all, long time no type (busy with life)

    Been tracking milton and saw this on americanwx and would be curious on anyones takeaway about it:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2024_10/IMG_1410.gif.971b565fd0a2042fcfdec45ca0077efb.gif

    The poster said: “I don’t see the weakening immediately prior to landfall on the latest global guidance. That was clear consensus up to this point, but seems to be lost at the moment. Here’s today’s 6z GFS for example”

  26. In my opinion, and I can see a lot of dry air on the water vapor and I also know there is shear potential ……

    but, no model had this intensification or anything close, so, its really impossible to say if Milton will significantly weaken on approach or stay the same on approach.

    Ian was supposed to weaken and because it went further south, it ended up staying in a much friendlier environment.

  27. If the more Northern track verifies, it would be a very bad for the Tampa Area. I could envision that bay water level getting awfully high with the surge.

  28. Question: Milton is moving west to east, correct?

    Where’s the front right quadrant of this cyclone? Is it in the northeast as we look down on it (as if it was coming up the East Coast) or is it on the lower right as we look at it because it’s moving easterly and not northerly?

    Does this question make sense?

    It looks like it’s making a bee line for Sarasota where my buddy lives.

  31. Where I go in Sarasota most of longboat Key will be underwater. Also Lido Key near St Armand Circle. There is a canal about a quarter mile from all the high end restaurants. Also Siesta Key will be under water almost back to route 41 Tamimi Trail. Awful situation down there if the center goes just to the north of Tampa. Hopefully the storms speeds up and weakens.

  32. I don’t think I know what more the atmosphere needs to do to prove something is wrong.

    The southwest is breaking heat records by multiple degrees per day.

    The amount of water btwn the Helene and closed low interaction.

    A 50 mb intensification in 8 hrs. At 4am, Milton was 972 mb.

    Record warm ocean temps

    Low concentrations of sea ice in both the arctic and antarctic

    Bizarre rain patterns in the southern Sahara desert.

  34. I have friends in Fort Myers who were leaving to come up here on Thursday. They switched flights to tomorrow.

    1. My daughter’s In-laws are in Ft Myers. They didn’t evacuate during Ian but I am thimkng this may be a whole different monster

        1. My guess is they won’t leave. Their house is new and last I heard they think it’s built to hurricane standards. Me? I’d have already been out of there

  35. Milton’s slight equatorward component in its motion has been putting the center south of forecast, and this puts it closer to Yucatan. This may cause some friction and the results are longer lasting eastward motion and further south landfall point in FL.

    1. I think that is very fair and hope you are wrong.

      Pete did say it could weaken but even if it does the surge will be “fierce.” His word not mine

    1. Extrapolated perhaps btwn 915 and 917 mb would be my guess.

      Does this level off before it drops sub 900 mb ????????

  40. Thanks TK.

    Milton’s intensification rate is jaw dropping.

    For what it’s worth, it’s short term intensity will probably not have a lot of bearing on its long term intensity (I.e., stronger now does not necessarily mean stronger later). Milton is a very small hurricane at the moment, and storms like that are prone to wild fluctuations in intensity. Within 12-24 hours, it’ll undergo an eyewall replacement which will cause it to start expanding but also weaken the winds. But what it’s done in the past 24 hours and especially past 12 hours is incredible. And even though considerable pre-landfall weakening is likely, it will still have devastating potential…

  42. The NHC could save itself some work and special updates and put Milton at 880 mb and sustained winds at 200 mph and Milton should be there, at the rate its going, by about 5pm 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  45. The one I’m going to try to find in the NHC archives, I believe it was Patricia ? off of the coast of Mexico.

    That might have exploded like Milton.

    In the far west Pacific, I also feel like I’ve seen what looks like an avg looking storm and then, one day later, its a stadium effect super typhoon. Perhaps a little more common over there.

  46. Our school does not have weather instruments, but we’ve received a nice dose of rainfall today and we continue with moderate showers.

  48. It does take the upper environment to be right …..

    Clearly it is here with Milton.

    But its strength may be the consequence of no real westerly moving waves coming thru the Gulf due to them being sent so bizarrely far NW, north of the Cape Verde Islands.

    Milton is nearing the churned waters of Helene’s path and it will be interesting if that stops the explosive development.

    1. That is the first hostile factor. Others also await that will knock Milton down from 5 to 3 before landfall.

  49. Robert:

    My buddy’s home is just south of Siesta Key Beach, three streets from the coast, right next to Point of Rocks. I know of the places you mentioned in and around Siesta Key from your previous post.

        2. Yeah. 502 bad gateway. I spent a few minutes and found a workaround…
          Delete the “s” in the https of the url and it’ll work.

  52. The one positive of Milton is headed into the cold season, some of the heat in the oceans needs to be released.

    They are too warm and if not for a Milton, probably would have seen a large, impactful mid latitude system causing problems.

    Can’t have cold continents and well above avg ocean heat. The earth will try to equal that imbalance out with an intense mid latitude system.

    Glad the hurricane is getting rid of some of the ocean heat.

  53. I’m watching the presser by FL officials. Traffic is horrific. I’m hoping they open both sides of highway in one direction tomorrow.

  54. From a colleague…

    Some notes Hurricane Milton.
    I think this will help with context and perspective, and probably some info tidbits you did not know before.
    1)
    Milton is a very small hurricane for it size (radii of tropical storm and hurricane force winds). Small hurricanes are prone to rapidly intensify easier/quicker b/c they are small in size to begin with due to a number of dynamical factors.
    2)
    As a result of 1), the skill for predicting how fast the intensification will be and how strong they eventually get is quite limited currently, and this lack of skill exists globally for all tropical cyclones.
    3)
    Aircraft reconnaissance actually reported a surface sustained wind derived from remote measurements of 205 mph early this afternoon. This value was rejected by NHC as erroneous. and there are some calibration problems w/ the remote sensor (called an SFMR) to measure surface winds. This is a known problem and in fact, they have withdrawn operational use of this sensor from certain aircraft for until further notice to examine its high bias for winds.
    With Hurricane Beryl earlier this season, this high bias for winds was apparent at times, as for other hurricanes in recent years.
    Now, Milton may not be done intensifying or has peaked yet, but as of 3pm EDT, the above statement still applies.
    4)
    The newest hurricane model that was successful in predicting Milton’s rapid intensification today, also shows rapid weakening of the hurricane during the last 18 hr leading up to the FL landfall. In fact, as far as I can tell from the records, it would be among the fastest weakening in terms of eye pressure globally in such a short time. The model is showing a 70 millibar weakening in just 18 hr! This scenario is not unreasonable as the environment around Milton should degrade significantly in the last 18 hr up until landfall. So this is good news for FL, relatively speaking.
    5)
    A social item I have noticed when hurricanes reach category 5, much of social media and the mainstream never lets that category go, as if they expect it to remain at category 5 all the way until landfall, even when significant weakening occurs or is forecast.
    Just b/c a hurricane was category 5, does not mean that translates in all its fury when it makes landfall. In fact, this is rarely the case as there are only four continental U.S. category 5 landfalls on record.

    1. Thank you, TK. They do hold to the highest category dont they? To their credit, All Mets I am following and the link Dr provided stress this. But also stressed the storm surge damage. Unless I am not reading correctly, this thing is a monster regardless of cat number.

      1. That is true. The same collegue has stressed that the storm surge impact won’t be drastically altered even with rapid weakening (5 to 3, for example). Too much momentum will have already taken place and it’s still a powerful storm at 3.

        1. Thank you. I said above that Pete used the word fierce. Very worrisome. I’m hoping folks are listening and evacuating

    2. great information. Thank you TK.

      Yes, I was looking at that particular Model. It surely shows it weakening.

      We ALL will be watching.

  57. Milton now 180mph per the NHC. There’s been no new recon data to confirm that but seems to be a reasonable extrapolation of earlier trends. There’s a new recon plane inbound now. My scientific curiosity is peaked on what this one will find. This will likely be the “peak intensity” flight. In fact, satellite trends indicate the peak may have already passed and an EWRC onset is upon it. But I still think there’s a real chance the plane finds a central pressure below 900mb.

    1. Agree on all.
      I think we’re at peak, basically.
      What are your thoughts on potential frictional drag from the Yucatan? I know Milton is a small system, but it’s going to be quite close to the coast, and I wonder if this doesn’t create a scenario where the center ends up further south down the road at landfall … say, Siesta Key area.

      1. I agree with you. It’s interesting how the track has kinda trended from basically a straight west to east line to now being much further south in the near term but with a greater north component towards landfall. Not sure I buy that especially since it’s not being “captured and pulled” in the way Helene was.

        If I were pressed and had to answer Siesta Key versus, say, Clearwater, I’d go Siesta Key, and spare Tampa a worst case. But obviously both are on the table.

  58. Always important to “keep your eye on the ball” so to speak with hurricane impact messaging. Remember with Helene, the biggest concern was always going to be inland flooding, which would have occurred with little variation regardless of Helene’s peak or landfall intensity.

    With Milton, the concern is surge, specifically for Tampa Bay. And like with Helene’s rains, the surge aspect for Milton will be baked in long before any meaningful weakening occurs. The only benefit of the late weakening will be to somewhat limit the secondary impact of wind damage, which will still be fairly significant although building codes are quite good in most of FL.

    So in terms of what to “root for” with minimizing impact, it’ll be about track much more so than intensity. The degree of weakening will have little impact on surge (see: Katrina, which was a rapidly weakening storm at landfall). However, if the center comes in south of Tampa versus north, that would have a huge impact.

    1. Yes. I have been basically telling people this today. The value of your contribution here is grand. Thank you for being part of the discussion!

  59. NHC has MIlton at 25 mph in the middle of tampa bay

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
    12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
    24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
    36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
    48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
    60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH…INLAND
    72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH…OVER WATER
    96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    Taking the 27.9 N and 82/6 W with 125 mph we get this from Google Maps

    https://ibb.co/x6yPk6L

    2. I remain of the meteorological opinion the center of Milton will not be this far north at landfall.

  61. 77mb in 24 hours. Now that’s some intensification.
    The minicanes are among the most fascinating storms to watch.

  62. Great stats from Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach

    #Milton’s pressure is down to 905 hPa. Only 5 Atlantic #hurricanes since 1979 have had a lower minimum pressure:

    Wilma-2005-882 hPa
    Gilbert-1988-888 hPa
    Rita-2005-895 hPa
    Allen-1980-899 hPa
    Katrina-2005-902 hPa

    Mitch (1998) and Dean (2007) both had min pressures of 905 hPa.

        1. Hurricane force winds look like they are from 90.2 W to 91.2 W, so only 60 miles across and the catastrophic stuff from 90.5W to maybe 90.8W or rounded to about 20 miles across.

          1. I’m thinking a 7pm special advisory is coming to note the pressure drop under 900 mb. Could see it bumped up to 185 mph sustained.

              1. Just saw that as well. 4 nautical miles. Pretty insane.

                Should be an eyewall replacement happening soon.

                Heard a report that the hurricane hunters actually saw birds flying around in the eye.

                1. Yes. Sad really as I wonder how long they can maintain their flight before they exhaust their energy.

  64. TWC just commented that with the current 180 mph sustained winds, this is currently equivalent to a giant EF3 tornado.

  65. Cait’s parents live in Venice FL about 10 miles inland and her sister has a property in Englewood near the water. They both made out OK in Ian but last week with Helene, her sister’s place got flooded in storm surge and her parents had a weak tornado pass through their complex. Lots of debris blowing around but fortunately minimal damage.

    Her sister, who was down there cleaning up from Helene, and her mom got a flight out this morning to Maryland where her sister lives but her father, who is a bit stubborn, stayed. He promptly received a mandatory evacuation order today and drove north towards Tampa and made it to Lakeland, east of Tampa on I 4. It took him 6 hours just to get to Tampa from Venice (normally takes 90 min). He has a hotel in Lakeland tonight and is going to try to make it to Savannah GA tomorrow where Cait’s brother is. Hopefully traffic tomorrow is better.

    Her parents have a waterway that runs through their condo complex and the condo association is saying the levee there will fail if the storm surge is bad enough. Nothing they can do at this point other than hope for a rapid weakening and track further south.

    1. Wishing them the best.

      I’m glad your father-in-law heeded that mandatory evacuation order and headed out. Hopefully he’ll face better moving traffic tomorrow and get further north.

      1. Yes hopefully and glad it was mandatory or his ass would probably still be there!

        FDOT did open up the shoulders for an additional travel lane on I 75 which has helped but not sure why they don’t do contra flow lanes for evacuations like other states do.

    3. A friends mom lives in Venice. She just completed repairs from Ian. She did leave and is in VA with her daughter (my friend).

      Prayers for her dad.

  66. Milton is an incredible heat engine.

    One of the warmest centers I’ve seen looking at the recon graph data. Hitting 25C in the center at altitude, wow !!

  69. Reading out there that Wilma may be somewhat similar from the early 2000s.

    Tiny hurricane and eye in the western Caribbean, was sub 900 mb at its strongest.

    Landfalled in southern third of FL at a cat 3, with a huge eye and a much more expansive wind field.

  70. Mark I am watching the Yankees game. To me no excuses not to get to the World Series this year. Yankees dominate the central division teams

    1. Yeah agree, the competition in the AL is fairly weak this year and for that matter there is no one team in the playoffs that has been truly dominant this season.

  71. A church friends cousin just arrived in Bonita beach to visit a friend. I has to look to see where that is. Dear heavens I hope they are leaving. Now

  73. In addition to the exceptional sub-900mb pressure, recon data confirms that EWRC is starting, and pressure was up several mb on the second pass. Makes me wonder what the actual lowest pressure was maybe 1-3 hours before the plane arrived.

    I would expect to see rather dramatic weakening of Milton in the next 12-18 hours (I would guess down to a Cat 3 or 4 this time tomorrow), but also an increase in wind radii. This may be followed by some renewed strengthening tomorrow into tomorrow night, that’s a bit of a wildcard depending on how “cleanly” the EWRC proceeds. And then the final weakening/beginnings of extratropical transition as it nears landfall.

    And again, barring any huge surprises, the fluctuations in wind speed from here are of limited consequence, that’s just how I’d expect to see it play out. The track remains most important. Some definite south trends (good news) in the 18z guidance.

        2. Oops bad wording. I didn’t mean see your post. I meant when he does weaken I’m afraid some may stay.

  75. My thoughts are with the people in Florida, but also the many who are still recovering from Helene throughout the south, including the Carolinas.

    Right now Milton is an incredibly powerful storm. I can’t even imagine the wind speeds. I’ve been on top of Mt. Washington with wind gusts around 90mph. But that’s nothing compared to Milton’s power over the Gulf of Mexico.

    By the way, Helene has been renamed Kirk as it traverses the Atlantic. It’s no longer a hurricane, but it will still be a strong storm when it hits France.

  76. After a long day at work it has been great to read all the analysis and comments. thank you all for a very informative discussion. My son who was supposed to be completing his return drive to Fort Myers has stopped in Chattanooga Tennessee where he will wait out the storm until Thursday. no classes at FGCU until further notice – he has been affected bp three hurricanes there now. Ian, Helene, and now Milton

  77. Pressure has come up notably. EWRC underway. We have seen the lowest pressure we are going to see, and this hurricane will land in fifth place on the list for the Atlantic.

  81. Pressure way up and the winds down in the 11pm update. 165mph and 914mb. The weakening process begins…

      2. Just as suspected.

        Meanwhile the tiktok and youtube videos from the fakes continue about how a CAT 5 will make landfall in FL and how it’s being controlled. Don’t even get me going on these weirdos. We need more and more caution from media, if they want to be useful, about these types of people.

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