Tuesday October 8 2024 Forecast (7:02AM)

145 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)

Upper level low pressure is the main driver of the weather the next few days, but that doesn’t mean unsettled weather. In this case, it means mostly fair weather, just some clouds from time to time, and a secondary cold front which will cross the region late Wednesday to reinforce the cooler air from Canada that’s now taking over behind yesterday’s unsettled weather. By Friday, high pressure slides over the region with a very nice and slightly milder day, and this high heads offshore with continued fair weather and a further warm-up for Saturday, the first day of a (for many) 3-day weekend.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Areas of frost inland lower elevations. Lows 38-45 except colder in some inland lower elevations and milder in urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 59-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW>

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42 except milder in urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Quicker-moving features anticipated now bringing unsettled weather threat in the October 13-14 time frame, the middle and end of the holiday weekend. Will refine this outlook in coming updates. Fair, cooler middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Watching October 18-19 for potential unsettled weather, otherwise pattern is dry and overall seasonable though with variable temperatures.

145 thoughts on “Tuesday October 8 2024 Forecast (7:02AM)”

    2. I did not see that. My heart aches for everyone in the path of these and for those heading into the path to help others. I sadly overlooked the toll it takes on our meteorologists. First, because they see the potential horror of these systems. Second, because they are often thr brunt of the misinformation surrounding them

      Heartbreaking video

  4. Thanks TK !

    Really nice autumn weather continues.

    That was something yesterday. amazing to see, in real time. the intensification yesterday. Then, very late evening, the first ERC to give a much bigger center this morning than the super tiny vortex Milton was yesterday.

    The atmosphere is incredible.

  6. I see a buoy a few to several miles NNW of Milton. It is in the central Gulf.

    Wind is NNE, gusting btwn 30 and 40 mph

    Its dewpoint is down to 66F from 80F yesterday.

    I wonder how long before some low level drier air starts becoming entrained.

    So far, Milton has stayed in a great upper level environment and a great lower level environment, in dp air that is either side of 80F.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    I saw your post at the end of yesterday’s blog. By controlled, do you mean Greene’s type of control ?????

      1. Sure is. Greene tweeting that “they can control these” sure didn’t help. I don’t care what side of the aisle a politician sits on. When he or she deliberately misleads, he should be somehow removed from office. Or at least put in a time out. And I don’t want to hear freedom of speech when it directly impacts peoples lives

  11. A friend heard from a relative in the target area. They are not evacuating because there is no place to go. Hotels are full and gas is in short supply. Just so sad in so many cases.

    1. Certainly is Sad. Not everyone has the cash or credit on hand
      to pack up and drive and stay hundreds of miles away.
      Sadly the poorest residents are affected the most. Something just isn’t right.

        1. Hopefully those folks will ride out the storm in an evacuation center, such as a school. I was watching local Sarasota TV last night and many schools are open as shelters.

  12. Watching model tracks. They mostly take Milton parallel to the coast and then turn more to the East before making landfall.
    Wondering how that will affect the storm surge?

  15. GFS landfalls at 06z Wednesday overnight.

    As best as I can tell, low tide is btwn 1 and 2am.

    We’re near a qtr moon with lower overall tides and the tides aren’t big to begin with on the Gulf side of Fl.

    But, it appears to landfall near relatively lower mean water, not that it will help much.

  16. Not that I factor in the ICON much, but its 12z run is 4 mb lower near landfall compared to its 00z run.

    ICON landfalls 6 hrs later than GFS.

    1. 963 mb (00z) vs 959 mb (12z)

      This is what I’m interested in at 12z.

      How do the individual model run pressures compare (00z vs new 12z)

      and …. is there consistent decrease, increase or stability in those projected pressures ?)

      So far, 1 slightly stronger.

  19. Thanks TK.

    No big new thoughts from me on Milton. Intensity is largely on track, though will be interesting to watch today as there are competing forces at work. The natural tendency would be for Milton to reintensify as its new eye clears out following the EWRC and with very warm water beneath it. But it is also starting to fight dry air as evidenced by it starting to get “pancaked” on its NW side. Overall, this will probably lead to little change in strength today, but if either factor significantly wins out, it’ll have a modest downstream effect.

    Track remains most important. Just south of Tampa is clearly favored at this point, but definitely close enough where a worst case just north of Tampa is still on the table…

    1. Thanks WxWatcher !

      Hope the wildfires out there are under control, though it looks like temps continue above average.

      1. Thanks Tom! California is in relatively good shape at the moment. It’s been extremely hot with many temperature records set, but thankfully little wind. However, there’s a lot of areas across the West that are still seeing significant fire activity, which is very unusual for this late in the year.

        We’re not off the hook here either, if we do get Santa Ana winds to come in before we get some good rains, we could have big problems.

  20. Before looking at the intensity of Milton at landfall on the Global models (GFS/ECMWF/ICON/CMC), keep in mind that they all initialized 30-40mb too high.

  21. Pretty interesting to see both the GFS and EC with little to no rainfall for the entire I-95 BOS-DCA corridor the next 10-15 days, on top of what’s already been a dry stretch. As leaf drop commences and frost kill increases, there could be some legitimate brush fire concerns across the region in the coming weeks… watch out for any breezy days behind the dry cold fronts that look to be lined up…

  22. Factoring in that the initializing of Milton’s pressures are wildly off ….

    So far on the 12z runs, the stronger 00z projections (like the GFS) are a little weaker and the weaker 00z projections are a little stronger.

    More changes are coming I’m sure, but it looks like models are converging towards a 960s or 970s mb landfall.

    Hopefully, to SAK’s point, future runs will be much better initialized.

    1. Seeing a 925.3 mb reading in the center.

      We’ll have to see what the NHC extrapolates from the new center update.

    1. CDO looks much better last few frames, very cold cloud tops with intense Tstorm activity and an eye that is clearing out.

  26. Last I heard is that the Bruins-Panthers game is still on for tonight. Surprising at least to me considering most of Florida is under the gun to some extent.

    2. Sunrise is more than 250 miles from Tampa. This is akin to saying that a hurricane is going to hit Cape Cod in 36 hours, so Montreal should cancel their home game tonight.

  28. Better be a lot of shear near approach.

    Acknowledging again that the intialized pressures are so off ….

    If one starts with any model’s initialized pressure, Milton reaches its lowest pressure on the run at a point that is much further north and east than it is now. Or in about 24-30 hrs from now.

    So, where for instance the Euro is at 950 mb (its strongest), does that mean Milton will be down in the 910s at that point because if its currently in the low 920s and the models are saying strengthening for another 36 hrs !!!!!!! ……

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024100812&fh=36&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

  29. I feel as though Milton has tapped on the brake pedal just a little today. Not that it changes anything.

    1. It was my go to lunch during the worst of the pandemic, then it got so sweet tasting, I had to give it up. Just couldn’t eat it anymore. 🙂 🙂

  33. Very possible that Milton is back at Cat 5 strength, though again, that’s a secondary issue.

    It is continuing to run very noticeably south of forecasts both from the NHC and models.

    1. TK commented a few times about a more southerly track. I keep wondering if Tampa is the bullseye or is it Fort Myers / Naples.

      1. South of Tampa Bay. Landfall upper CAT 2.
        Frictional drag from Yucatan and slightly less influence from upper features keeps it more east for now. Result: Landfall further south than centerline NHC track. They will adjust again.

  36. What’s going on this afternoon is extremely impressive because Milton is twice the size it was yesterday and it might be getting to a pressure now terribly far from 900 mb.

    In mb, maybe it doesn’t get to yesterday’s 899mb, but in terms of energy, it’s probably generating far more than when it was tiny.

    1. Oh I got that. No worries.
      I am fearful that perhaps Milton defies everything and comes
      ashore stronger than predicted. We shall see.
      No matter, most impressive storm!!!!

      1. I’m with you.

        It takes longer to wind down a larger hurricane than a small wind.

        Next 30 hrs so crucial to Florida.

        If 30 hrs from now it’s moderately larger and still less than, oh, 930 mb, then I’d expect a moderate to strong, 950-960 mb, cat 3 to landfall, or stronger the further south it tracks.

        South track seems to me to keep it in the best environment, longest. Further north, environment becomes poor, quicker.

  39. From Meteorologist Paul Dellegatto

    #Milton beginning to make its turn to the northeast in-between a trough to its north and a ridge to its southeast. Model clusters this morning are generally from Tampa Bay to Sarasota County. We will see if this trend continues. The storm is still 500 miles southwest of Tampa, so there is plenty of time for minor track adjustments. Minor adjustments will make a big difference in who experiences the highest storm surge and the strongest winds.

    Ryan Hanrahan’s reply to the tweet
    Tampa will be watching every wobble carefully. Hopefully a more southern track verifies which would keep the worst surge out of Tampa Bay. That would mean a much more serious storm, however, for Fort Myers and Port Charlotte

    2. The approximately three hour delay in the turn still to come is going to make all the difference.

  40. Today’s rain over southern Florida is not from the hurricane, but from a stationary frontal boundary sitting in the region. It’s kind of a quasi-PRE in a way.

    1. Ok, I was worried about something like that After I said here comes the rain from Milton. 🙂 thanks

      1. It’s still related. It’s not true hurricane structure rainfall, but some of it is born of moisture that is connected to the entire conglomeration that includes Milton.

    2. So, whoever is south of that center is likely to get AT LEAST a cat 3 equivalent surge, perhaps even a 4.

      North of the center, might actually be somewhat lower water as an E, then NE then N wind push the water out into the gulf.

      1. This is exactly why both the HWRF and HMON are GOING AWAY AFTER THIS SEASON. THANK FREAKING GOODNESS!

        Those models suck beyond description. But they have a nice replacement, or so it seems, based on early results.

    2. That CAT 1 scenario while not extremely likely is not impossible. Milton may be larger than yesterday, but it’s still a small hurricane and very vulnerable to the negative forces that await it.

    3. I think Hafs a is 963, not 983 because I can see 972 and 976 pressure contours outward from the center.

      2. Well alrighty then!!! Me thinks you are correct.
        MY BAD!!!!!

        Yes, indeed. SO both of the HAFS models are very similar.

        Looks like a high end 2 or low end 3 at landfall.

        1. Haha, no bad at all !!!

          The numbers are too small for my eyes, lol.

          I need a magnifying glass. 🙂

          1. I don’t need magnifying glass, BUT I do need my glasses. 🙂
            There was not enough difference from back ground color and font color. At least for my eyes. 🙂

    4. The track is probably too far north with this model, but it’s done a good job forecasting intensity changes.

  43. New recon plane has made the Nw quadrant of Milton. Should have a new pressure in next 20 mins.

    Based on satellite since last pressure, I’m guessing somewhere btwn 905 and 915 mb

  45. Really good NHC discussion at 5PM. Tough to add anything of value beyond that.

    With the surge, it’s not like Helene where there was an option for the surge to come ashore in a largely unpopulated area, which it did. This is a “bad” versus “worse” scenario with plenty of vulnerable high population areas south of Tampa. But for Tampa at least, trends are good.

    And worth keeping in mind, the odds of a landfall just north of Tampa are probably about 10-20%. Most likely spared the worst, but much too high a number to take a chance on evacuations given where today’s science is at.

  46. Seeing a 902.4 and a 902.6 mb in the center pass.

    With a 160 kt flight level wind in the SE quadrant.

    That 5pm advisory is probably 10 mb too high and a bit low on the winds.

  48. Centerline shift south on that advisory, as I thought they might. The adjustments are not done yet.

    1. If the eye reaches 86E before 24N I think the center is going to be closer to Venice at landfall.

      2. Ugh, that wouldn’t be good at all. Cait’s parents are in Venice in a complex off US 41 about 6 miles inland. And her sister’s property is on Manastota Key in Englewood (near the Lock and Key Restaurant) and is basically just a thin strip of land out in the Gulf. The whole thing was underwater last week in Helene and I fear this one could be even worse.

        1. Agree. A friends mom lives in Venice but is in VA with her daughter.

          Is Cait’s dad still in Venice. Did you say last night that her sister and mom evacuated or were they not able to?

          1. Fortunately they are all evacuated and took whatever important files and memorabilia they could with them. Her mom and sister are back in Maryland and her dad made it to Jacksonville.

            A good friend’s parents live in Port Charlotte as well…they stayed but moved inland and are staying in a friend’s house.

            1. Thank heavens they evacuated. And I’m glad your friends parents moved inland. Praying they stay safe. And for all in his path

        2. As WxW said, there’s no good scenario. It may be avoiding the worst-case, but it’s still a bad scenario somewhere.

  51. HAFS also did a good job on forecasting the re-strengthening. Same thing applies. It’s a small hurricane (despite being bigger than 24 hours ago), and its structure dictates that rapid changes should not be surprising. We’ve learned a lot about these in recent years. This is one of the reason that the hurricane reanalysis project is finding a lot of past storms were UNDER-reported. A lot of them were indeed stronger than we thought.

      1. It’s brand new, so we’ll see. A couple of good forecasts is not an automatic, but being tested over several different types of tropical cyclones and scenarios will be the best way to gauge it. The true scientific method in action. So far, so good though. But a long way to go.

  52. Almost time to drop the puck on the Bruins season, visiting the team that eliminated them last year – Florida Panthers. Starting goalie will be Joonas Korpisalo.

  53. That same Panthers team which eliminated my Rangers in the eastern conference finals last season.

    1. They are still one of the top teams in the league for this season. They’ll be a team to beat.

  55. Diameter of Milton has decreased in the last few hours, and it looks to me like the full scale turn to the NE remains somewhat delayed. More ENE motion continuing for now.

  57. A few things we can observe this evening…

    Again, a small tropical cyclone is the most prone to insane intensification, above projections, and now that Milton has removed itself from the influence of the Yucatan, the reintensification became more possible. However, this now increases the chance of a sooner second eyewall replacement cycle, which would again weaken the storm. We’ll probably see that take place early tomorrow.

    Also, more hostile conditions await Milton as it nears FL, and small tropical cyclones are more vulnerable to adverse conditions. It’s good news, albeit very limited good news. Still better than if the wind shear and dry air entrainment were not in the cards.

    1. The saddest part is this guy is going over an area that still has debris left from Helene that has the potential to fly . And on top of that resources are stretched so thin that even a small storm which this is not would have disastrous results.

  58. This guy has installed a storm surge webcam on Manasota Key near Englewood. It is very close to the Lock and Key Restaurant and Cait’s sisters place which was in the process of being gutted on the inside due to the flood damage from Helene last week. This will be very interesting to watch throughout the day tomorrow as this location should be ground zero for the worst storm surge and may be very close to where the eye comes ashore..

    https://x.com/chrisjacksonsc/status/1843794805538873768?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

  60. I’m pretty sure eye makes 86W before 24N. NHC will make another slight adjustment south on the centerline track. You won’t see the cone’s southern edge shift to the south really though because we also see it become more narrow as we get closer to the landfall time and the error potential decreases.

  61. NHC track adjusted slightly further south again. I think one more adjustment will be made before we zero in on a landfall near Venice. And now we wait for the negative forces to start weakening the storm. It won’t be disaster-mitigating, but it will be an improvement over the current intensity.

  62. Not for nothing, but I am noticing radar echors in S. Florida moving almost due South to North. Interesting.

    1. That’s because the air flow over southern Florida is from the south. They are south of the stationary front. I’d expect nothing different. The influence of the hurricane’s circulation is not prominent there, because it’s a compact system. The wind flow in South Florida was forecast to be from the south this morning.

Comments are closed.