Wednesday October 9 2024 Forecast (7:28AM)

167 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Upper level low pressure dominates our weather again the next couple days. A surprise batch of showers and thunderstorms popped up and moved across far southeastern areas / Cape Cod around dawn, and is moving off. I’m not expecting really anything else in the way of shower activity today though, just some areas of cloudiness to share the sky with the sun. A cold front will cross the region this evening with perhaps a quick shower in southern NH and northern MA, and reinforce a cool air mass for Thursday. High pressure slides south of our region and allows it to moderate Friday and Saturday, before another cold front knocks the temps back down for Sunday, just in time for a wave of low pressure to ride along it and bring clouds and a chance of some rainfall to the region for the middle day of the holiday weekend.

TODAY: Sunrise showers/t-storms exit Cape Cod otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 59-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible southern NH / northern MA. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42 except milder in urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing and becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Monday Holiday October 14 features a lingering shower otherwise mainly dry, breezy, cool weather. High pressure dominates with dry, cool weather followed by moderation next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Watching October 19-20 for potential unsettled weather, otherwise pattern is dry and overall seasonable though with variable temperatures.

167 thoughts on “Wednesday October 9 2024 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    45 here this morning. coolest of the season so far.

    Milton was still cat 5 as of last advisory.
    Global models have landfall nearcir just south of Tampa while hurrucane models are Farther South.

    Reply

  9. I am thinking a Cat 3-4 when it hits the coast square. Or a new designation, 3.5.

    I think the NHC has the eye over the coast around midnight-2 AM.

    Reply

    1. Something you said would happen on day one of your forecasting. Tick another box off in the win column of good forecasting by tk. 🙂

      Reply

    1. Looks like re-intensification and also at least a wobble to the North, if not a track change more to the North. We shall see.

      Milton has been full of surprises.

      Reply

  14. The showers this morning were not a complete surprise. A couple of the models hinted at it yesterday, and for the couple of radio stations I do on Cape Cod for last night I mentioned the slight chance for a shower. NWS also had it in their forecasts as well.

    Reply

  16. Just found out my friend’s cousin and daughter were not able to get out of Bonita beach …no place to go that was not near full already after Helene and filled quickly with word of Milton . And no gas. And they surely are not alone

    Many in Milton’s path have just managed to get their lives back to some form of normalcy after Ian. My heart and my prayers go out to all in the paths of these storms. Two back to back major storms.

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  18. I was supposed to pick up a friend from FT Myers at Logan very late on Tuesday. Flight cancelled at last minute so he is hunkered down in Cape Coral with others. UGH!

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  23. And mikes weather page. I am not reading as much focus on cat as damage around Milton.

    Mikes weather page

    Updated NHC Storm Surge maps this Wednesday morning. Still showing big numbers for the Florida west coast. A large CAT 4 expected at landfall. A lot depends on exact center location at landfall. But this gives possible ideas.

    https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1843988037132521693?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

    9:55am: Large tornado remains in progress heading north. Approximately 5 miles WNW of I-75 and the Miccosukee Service Plaza.

    https://x.com/imcftraveller/status/1844017969468432551?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

    Lots of questions about individual areas. This is a useful website from the NWS that you can zoom, control timeline, parameters, etc.

    https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1843979471860506908?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

    Flooding rains will be a big story with Milton. Already falling now. Inland water can be just as much as an impact as coastal surge with Hurricanes. Up to 20″+ for some with a large area with double digits coast to coast. Rare pink HIGH flooding risk showing. Current AM maps here.

    https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1843977410825388159?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

    Reply

  24. Latest Advisory has Milton at 145mph winds pressure at 931

    From Ryan Hanrahan
    Glad to see wind shear and dry air starting to take a toll on Milton. This weakening was well forecast and Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane through landfall tonight.

    Reply

    1. Milton will likely (already has been, really) a more prolific than normal producer of TC tornadoes due to the combination of synoptic and tropical forces at work. They won’t all be weak/brief in this case. We’ve already seen one or two long trackers.

      Brings me rather unpleasant flashbacks to working radar during Hurricane/Post-tropcial Ida in NJ/PA…

      Reply

  26. From NHC 11 AM update

    Milton’s structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong
    southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt.
    The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air
    infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has
    also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve
    Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a
    very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to
    931 mb. Milton’s intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this
    advisory.

    Milton has taken a dive.

    fyi 125 knots = 143.8 mph

    Reply

  27. Thanks TK.

    Everything going on structurally with Milton was expected. Winds coming down, pressure rising, wind field expanding. By the time this thing comes ashore, it really won’t even look like a hurricane anymore, it’ll be well on its way to extratropical status. Surge impacts are baked in at this point. A 10-15+ foot maximum surge is unavoidable. Wind damage a secondary concern, but mitigated by Milton’s weakening and the strong FL building codes. There will also be considerable flooding concerns, though thankfully Florida is much less susceptible to that than, say, Appalachia. And the tornado threat.

    Track is locked – south of Tampa it is, which is great news in terms of sparing that city a true catastrophe. But massive impacts are likely in the heavily populated areas along and south of track.

    Reply

  30. This season is quite interesting.

    Won’t have had the high volume most prognostications projected.

    It was silent in and around the climatological peak of Late August thru mid September.

    But, it had an early season monster in Beryl, severely impactful Helene and …….. Milton, which got to sub 900 mb and explosively developed on 2 separate occasions.

    Reply

  37. Thanks TK.

    Re-posting the link to the storm surge webcam that was installed at the roundabout on Manasota Key (Englewood, FL). Going to be watching this throughout the day and night as this location should be ground zero for the worst storm surge and may be very close to where the eye comes ashore. For reference this camera is set 16 feet above mean sea level and the storm surge here is forecast to be 10-15 feet.

    https://x.com/chrisjacksonsc/status/1843794805538873768?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

    Link to the webcam:

    https://hazcams.com/station/hazcams-mobile-002

    Reply

    2. Extreme south FL had sun this morning to add to all the turning of the winds landfalling hurricanes bring.

      Its in the upper 80s with dps near 80F in that extra warm sector where all those tornadoes are forming.

      Reply

  41. Just got a text from my parents telling me of a tornado that went through their park (Six Lakes Country Club) in North Fort Myers. They just arrived on Friday and are riding-out the storm. Just one street/lane to the west (Hogan Dr.) the tornado caused slight damage to my uncle’s home, but totaled several others.
    My parents had just torn down their original home (upgrade, not hurricane related) and rebuilt a year or so before Ian. Many original homes in the park had significant damage or were totaled from Ian. Their home, like many others (mostly double-wides) that were rebuilt/delivered with modern codes, survived very well. In fact, they only had about $100 worth of damage from flying debris. I was feeling comfortable with them staying, until their close brush with a tornado. Hopefully, that first intense band will end up being the worst of it. I’ll post an update if I hear of any other news, but it seems that there were no injuries. The park is fairly empty anyway, until more snowbirds arrive…good thing!

    Reply

  42. The tornado outbreak aspect of this is fascinating, that’ll be one of the big post-storm research and review point. Usually tornadoes are more of a footnote on TC impacts but this is a major outbreak. Definitely related to the synoptic, non-tropical forcings at work.

    Reply

  43. Milton is basically a “half-i-cane” now. Much weaker winds than what’s actually being reported, and no longer fully tropical.

    It’ll probably come in as a 1 or low 2 equivalent, though NHC may report it higher in the interest of public safety. But a much broader wind field is also being observed, and nothing has changed on surge.

    Also, there’s been some notable left of track motion recently. It’s getting harder to track the true center as it broadens out and loses tropical characteristics, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t slightly concerned about the max surge trending back towards Tampa. With so much of the convection on the north side of the storm, the center may want to keep getting pulled in that direction…

    Reply

  44. Hi – My very high praise to WXW who has crushed Milton and its development ARC. So awesome to read an instinctual, young meteorologist and not modelogist.

    Fair warning to my New England friends. The ECMWF is messy right now during this transitional time of year, and it may carry over into early winter. For New England it is regularly taking northern stream shortwaves and frontal passages, and drawing into them southern stream moisture, over amplifying the development, and slowing its progression. This is particularly so in 8-10 day period. Problem is, it does not get on to the correct idea until the 60 -72 hour period. This could cause a lot of problems for the ECMWF acolytes as we approach hype season.

    I write the above with no bias and likely some embarrassment, I have been working on a project for 3 years with the ECW. It is just not quite there, and the methods, procedures, and programming are still recovering from its Sandy victory where its inadvertent win triggered the developers of the time to try to create a ubiquitous Medium Range, Short Range, High Res, Tropical Model….

    Reply

    1. Much too kind JMA, but thank you!!

      Ironically, what you’ve said about the EC is something I’ve semi-consciously suspected for some time now. That it’s huge win on Sandy and also its dominance on many high impact events including several big Northeast US winter storms from ~2010-2014 may have ultimately led to it losing its edge down the line… I certainly don’t weight it any higher than the GFS these days, if anything less…

      Reply

      1. GFS has been better in the extended medium range in the SNE area in most recent capture periods. ECMWF is fine unless it has northern stream energy, shortwaves, or fronts passing through, then it loses its mind.

        The majority of my colleagues tell me Sandy created an ego that could not be let go of and the developers of its time wanted to make the universal default model and kept pushing until they got pushed out.

        Reply

    2. Oh my. I have happy tears reading your first paragraph. I sure feel the same. And WxWatcher. Definitely not too kind. Just honest.

      Reply

  45. Naples tide guage showing a 3.8ft surge.

    It’s at 5.52ft and I believe its record is 7.2ft with Ian.

    Beach is underwater and the tide is coming in.

    Reply

  47. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KTBW/standard

    For all the tremendous shear and low level dry air intrusion, that radar image looks impressive to me.

    The last 2 pressure passes didn’t change much, 949 and then 948 mb.

    It’s not far offshore, hope it doesn’t slow down and crawl onto shore around 960 mb.

    That 2nd intensification yesterday gave it such a low starting point that even a 50 mb rise is still bringing in an impressive storm.

    Reply

    1. Because you’re starting to look at a storm that’s literally half way to post-tropical. Not doesn’t have much warm core structure left.

      Also moving only slightly north of east now. Though the center has broadened, and “landfall” will take place along a stretch of coastline, I maintain my prediction generally the same, between Sarasota and Venice.

      Reply

      1. Between Sarasota and Venice, yes! Its actual impact should not be diminished, but will be closer to high category 2, than a category 5 as most people thin that it will come ashore as.

        Reply

  48. I have tried so hard to avoid the misinformation, but many people have sent me screen shots and shared posts to ask me for information … “is this legit?” etc. I am appalled at how misused social media is now. Something has to be done.

    There is more bad info than useful info, by a long stretch now. Somebody pointed out a FB page that is literally a collection of misinformation, all being taken as “the real deal”.

    A recent post I saw was a breaking news flash that the hurricane was moving northward up the coast and would strike over or north of Tampa. And that lead to a bunch of folks trashing the meteorologists for not knowing what we’re doing. Yup, that’s fair. I rolled my eyes so hard I think I sprained an eyeball. 😛

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  49. Do you think where this is transitioning to extra tropical, that there could be a quick backside NW punch that returns an impressive surge into Tampa after the center passes by?

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  50. If Milton comes in lower, does that mean east coast of FL will be better off than expected. I know that’s a broad question but have friends on east coast

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  51. Trends to me say almost due east from here and earlier than midnight landfall. It’s also “weaker” on the latest advisory than projected, and likely weaker than reported. I don’t agree with reporting something stronger than it actually is if it’s done on purpose. That’s also defined as misinformation. Report it AS OBSERVED. Without question. Always. This is science. Reporting something erroneously defeats the entire purpose and serves no good whatsoever. So I hope from here on, it’s reported as it is found.

    Reply

    1. I thought of all of that and it makes good sense. But there are exceptions and I believe this is one of them. It’s human nature too which absolutely trumps science in certain cases if it means the difference between life or death. . There are already people leaving because they feel forced. One hint of not as strong a category and some will turn around. Others who stayed will let their guard down if they think it’s much weaker. . Thats an absolute.

      If anything we need to somehow work to educate the average person to not focus on just the category. I’ve already seen focus on it weakening without warning that the surge will still be significant and that there are pikes of debris from Helene that may well become missles. We have seen how secondary category is to other factors that ended up Being the cause of the worst destruction

      Reply

        1. I’m tired of playing to the lowest common denominator. But the word used was May.

          It is up to our Mets to educate. This is a really good time. Helene was also.

          Reply

    1. Looks like they got 953mb on the center dropsonde, which may be slightly high if they missed the exact center. The NHC pressure number is generally good, and that data confirms the rapid pressure rises earlier have eased, possibly aided by baroclinic forcing kicking in. But still a rising trend. Continued broadening too, the wind field has become quite large.

      That plane’s at ~10,000 feet though. 125 mph up there definitely does not equate to 120 mph at the surface. They haven’t sampled the full circulation yet but unlikely they’ll find much higher. They’ll be another plane in it soon too to provide more info, but my guess is the data will support max surface winds around 100 mph. Again, largely an academic exercise only at this point.

      Reply

      1. Ok, thanks !

        I wonder if they’ll ever switch to that, or I wonder if they do, noting the winds as about 80% oh what they measure in the low level reconnaissance flights.

        Reply

    1. Gust to 96 in Sarasota now.

      KSRQ 092353Z 10046G81KT 2 1/2SM RA BR BKN011 OVC016 25/24 A2842 RMK AO2 PK WND 12083/2341 PRESFR SLP624 P0006 60341 T02500239 10261 20244 58211

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  54. Standard Metric
    Water Levels
    6.67 ft.
    MLLW
    as of 10/09/2024 19:30 LST/LDT
    Height

    +4.55 ft in Naples and climbing.

    So when it’s a new and full moon, Naples has 2 highs and 2 lows like we do all the time.

    But it’s a quarter moon and one of their tides disappear, so once high tide is achieved later this evening, it barely drops all night and then rises a little more tomorrow morning before really going out tomorrow afternoon.

    So, from the tide itself, they have no relief coming the next 12 hrs.

    Reply

      1. Their pressure is 962.4 mb.

        I think JpDave posted a hafs-a 12z run yesterday and it had 963 mb just offshore.

        Pretty accurate, intensity wise.

        Reply

  55. 5.57 in of rain the past 5 hrs at Clearwater airport.

    I can see St Pete gusting to 75 mph.

    What’s discerning is a buoy out west of Naples, maybe 50-100 miles out in the gulf, sustained at 40, gusting to 70.

    Winds are coming around to WSW, so there’s more water, maybe much more to be pushed to shore in ft Myers and Naples.

    Reply

    1. Tom
      OCTOBER 9, 2024 AT 8:00 PM
      Their pressure is 962.4 mb.

      I think JpDave posted a hafs-a 12z run yesterday and it had 963 mb just offshore.

      Pretty accurate, intensity wise.

      Reply

  61. Wind also gusted to 95 mph in Venice earlier. That roundabout in Manasota Key is already underwater and now the winds are starting to scream in on the back side from the west. Going to be an incredible surge there in the next few hours. I am seeing winds on the back side at 95mph plus as well.

    Reply

      1. They evacuated and left Florida so are all good.

        I am watching all the live updates online from Josh Morgerman in Sarasota and Reed Timmer who is in Venice. I’m afraid Manasota Key is going to be devastated. The peak surge there the next several hours is going to be insane.

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  69. I think the extreme shear Milton was under today really made its satellite presentation by late afternoon and early evening a bit deceptive.

    On IR, it looked awful.

    But underneath, even unraveling, becoming tilted, it still made landfall sub 960 mb with excessive rains on its north side, gusts to 95 or a little higher near landfall and expansive gusts of 70-80 mph all the way north to Tampa and 50-60 mph now well inland.

    I don’t think I’ll soon forget the 2 explosive developments it had. What those small areas out in the gulf must have briefly experienced over 2 days had to be violent.

    Reply

    1. And my daughters make fun of me for asking at my daughter’s tour of U Tampa if they had a hurricane evacuation plan.

      They’ll never let me live it down, yet I think it was a sensible question.

      My daughter shook her head and all the other parents looked at me kinda funny. LOL !!!

      Reply

        1. It was, along with the NHC.

          It’s that transition to extra tropical, a quick pressure rise and cooler, drier air getting entrained.

          Combine them, it’s a little like the backside explosive winds on cape cod in the December snowstorm with all the lightning in the 2000’s. Cape towns gusted to 100+

          Reply

      2. Just read traffic lights flying off the poles in downtown Sarasota with those 100+ mph winds funneling between the buildings.

        Cantore just reported a 109 mph wind gust in Bradenton.

        Reply

  74. That’s like within the extra tropical Milton, probably a meteo tsunami rushing to shore when that backside charged to shore.

    That must have brought a massive water rise within minutes.

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  75. Has this stayed purely tropical, I don’t believe that backside winds just hitting Sarasota would have been that strong. No doubt the transition to extra tropical and a quick pressure rise made the backside worst than the front wind wise.

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  77. Daytona beach is gusting to 59 mph and plenty of inland OBs fairly far east of Tampa are now gusting just over 65 mph. This is impressive !

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  78. Well, we’ll see in the morning ….

    The low pressure sub 960 mb and onshore winds south of the center were going to cause a storm surge bad enough.

    But now a NW backside winds of 80-110 mph further driving more water onto shore. And that’s a backside wind burst that probably intensified the last couple hrs and brought additional surge.

    I can’t imagine Sarasota south to Naples what the final surge numbers will be. I hope a lot of folks haven’t drowned.

    Reply

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