Thursday October 10 2024 Forecast (7:32AM)

81 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Canadian cool shot today with a gusty breeze as high pressure slides southeastward to our west and upper level low pressure weakens but moves across the region. Surface high pressure moves south of New England Friday and Saturday which will feature dry weather and a milder trend. A cold front will pass by later Saturday with a gusty, shifting breeze. Unsettled weather will follow this as a wave of low pressure approaches then moves just to our north, dragging its warm front through the region Sunday with a period of rain and a cold front sometime early to midday Monday with another round of rain showers. There should be a milder period of time between the 2 fronts with less chance of wet weather in the “warm sector”, but it’s pretty clear that the weather “pick” of the 3-day weekend will be Saturday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, then diminishing.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Evening clouds depart northwest to southeast. Overnight clouds increasing west to east. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing and becoming variable, then SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain in the morning or midday, then a slight chance of rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Dry pattern. Below normal temps (coolest of season so far) early period, then moderation follows.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Trend is for continued fairly dry pattern and up-and-down temperatures but averaging slightly above normal for the period.

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81 thoughts on “Thursday October 10 2024 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  4. Thanks, TK

    My cousin and her husband rode out the storm in their home in Bradenton. Their home is a mile from the coast. I am praying for their safety and I hope to hear from or about them soon!

    42 the low this morning.

    Reply

    1. Indeed, nature can be quite destructive. From volcanic eruptions to hurricanes to tornadoes to monsoons to blizzards. Starting with homo habilis, humankind has been battling the elements for nearly 2.8 million years. Of course, animals do, too. It’s their instincts – some of which we’ve lost as we’ve evolved – which can `predict’ calamities, causing them to flee or seek some kind of shelter or safer space.

      Reply

  12. ACE report for the northern hemisphere…

    71% of normal to date .. below average.

    Pacific is the quietest basin so far at only 53% of normal!

    Reply

    1. Interesting how ACE gets brought up when it’s above average, but all you hear is crickets when it’s below.

      The door swings both ways.

      Reply

  13. From a colleague on why so many tornadoes. Explained easily by science…

    The fact Milton had a dry air intrusion and deep layer synoptic-scale wind shear impinged on it was the reason was there were a number of strong tornadoes in FL. It was not your typical tropical atmosphere for a hurricane landfall in FL.

    Due to the location of FL, you don’t usually see sig tornado outbreak with hurricanes. You will see it more landlocked areas like the majority of the Gulf of Mexico states and Southeast U.S.
    A hurricane moving inland in these areas encounters baroclinic conditions much easier than FL. Just the presence of drier continental air is enough (not common in FL due to the warm ocean on 3 sides).

    Dry air at mid-level increases the temp lapse rates, which promotes instability, and it doesn’t take much. 500-800 CAPE, and look out. Also, the dense hurricane overcast gets thinner, so you get breaks of sun, and that’s promote a CAPE increase.

    A hurricane environment over the ocean is very stable actually, at least in term of buoyancy (CAPE), due to a very moist atmosphere at all levels. Once a continental air mass is introduced, you get instability, the excellent low-level wind shear takes care of the rest, and tornadoes can come in swarms.

    Reply

  18. So….I am leaving later this PM to do a college visit to Penn State with my son (we have tours scheduled tomorrow). He just started his senior year of high school and will be submitting college applications shortly. He has taken after me and is obsessed with the weather so has decided to pursue a degree in Atmospheric Sciences.

    We also looked at SUNY Albany back in April and he has visits to Cornell and University of Colorado at Boulder planned later this month and early November. I am hoping he likes Penn State as State College is a weather mecca and they have a great meteorology program and faculty there. Jon Nese, former storm analyst on the TWC, is one of the head faculty there. I believe he has his heart set on Colorado though as he would like to be near skiing and the mountains. They have had a good graduate program there for years from what I understand but the UG program is relatively new. Curious if anyone on here has heard much about that program.

    Reply

    1. This is so special. It’s a special time for parents and children. And even more special because he is focused on something you love. Enjoy!,

      Reply

    2. First off, good for him! I honestly can’t help much on UC Boulder, I never looked at it. However, one thing I’ll say is that there’s a tremendous amount of opportunity in meteorology and related fields in that area, especially with NOAA.

      Penn State, at least at the time, was just too big for me personally, but if he’s cool with that, it’s a bellwether school, and like Boulder comes with many opportunities. Accuweather of course is a huge player there.

      I did a semester of grad school at SUNY Albany before starting with the NWS. I didn’t have a bad experience, but don’t know that I’d recommend it for undergrad. A lot of faculty time and effort goes into the grad program there. However, they did open up a new building for the met program and the Albany WFO soon after I left, and I hear it’s very nice, and it’s a great WFO.

      I don’t want to say all undergrad met degrees are the same, but meteorology is not one of those fields where anyone is going to ask where your undergrad degree is from, beyond just curiosity. I don’t love the “it’s who you know” phrase either, but reality is that who and what you get involved with outside the classroom is a better predictor of success than where the degree is from. If he has questions or wants a semi-recent grad perspective (although hard to believe I’ve been out for over 5 years, yikes) I’m happy to help!

      Reply

      1. Thank you for reaching out, I appreciate the offer and will let Ben know if he has any questions!

        We toured the new ETEC building at Albany and it is a beautiful building. Nice observation deck and the NWS and NYS Mesonet Lab is right in the building. Nice globe in the lobby showing realtime satellite imagery. Brian Tang gave us the tour and was very helpful. He also mentioned Tomer Burg as being a relatively recent grad. That said, Albany is definitely not his first choice primarily because he didnt like the campus at all. Cornell is a very competitive Ivy League school so if he managed to get in there, he would have to think long and hard about it. But right now I think CO and Penn State are his top two.

        Reply

  21. Thanks TK.

    Not to take anything away from the impacts that occurred, but there was a lot that went right with Milton in terms of limiting impact. The south of Tampa track was a huge factor of course. As was the weakening yesterday, to a lesser extent. Also, while Milton did grow greatly in size yesterday, I think it was a little too late to really drive up the surge, after it had been such a small storm for most of its life. And finally, the rainfall amounts were biblical in some cases, but Florida’s just not susceptible to that in a way that more rugged terrain areas are.

    Again, not to take anything away from the clearly very major impacts that occurred, but definitely some silver linings.

    Reply

  23. I had a nice chat with my brother outside after work today. He enjoys this kind of weather and when he was able to work outside he enjoyed being with his dogs doing things in the yard. No more animals, and he’s mainly in a wheelchair now but it was still nice to see him enjoying the weather. 🙂

    Going to need a jacket when I go to photograph the Woburn High School football game in Melrose this evening. We’re going to hand them their fourth loss of the season and avenge our loss to them last time. This is a fun gig. I can now clearly say I have come to enjoy photography more than meteorology. 🙂

    Reply

  24. Solar Cycle 25 has produced another storm that may result in aurora sightings tonight.

    Thought this cycle might over-achieve prediction (said it a couple years ago, actually). And it has.

    Post-mortem: The person out on social media who posted to many thousands YESTERDAY AFTERNOON that Milton would make landfall in Tampa itself should be held accountable for scare tactics. It was CLEAR by then that the center of the hurricane, much weaker, was coming ashore SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. And good forecasts, including mine, were squelched out because of this damn nonsense. It. Has. To. Stop.

    That’s all for now. I’m going to change the decorations in mom’s place with my son before she comes home from rehab. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Reply

    1. Glad to hear your mom is coming home from rehab !!

      Your high quality, with appropriate levels of concern are being heard loud and clear.

      Part of the responsibility, in my opinion, lies on those thousands who are listening to this other person. They would be wise to switch to your blog.

      Reply

      2. Thanks Tom.
        I hate that this stuff even happens, but it does and it was nice to actually see a lot of people there were wise to it.

        Reply

  26. 56 here. Hopefully, will be under 50 to keep mosquitoes away while northern light gazing. Although even under 60 they are lethargic

    Reply

    2. Right now my son is boarding a plane in Boston heading to Amsterdam. He happens to be seated by the window on the left side of the plane, so I hope he gets to see the show during the flight.

      Reply

  32. Driving west on 84 past Newburgh NY and the aurora is unreal. Brilliant red pillars seen with the naked eye. Get outside if you can!

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  38. Saw the Aurora tonight from Burlington Ma believe it or not. Purplish hue Northwest sky. Did not last long as clouds took over.

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  40. Soooooo. It used to be you only saw the Aurora at the north or south pole. What is causing it to dip down into the states?

    Reply

    1. The aurora was never exclusively visible at the poles. It’s just most frequently seen in the arctic and antarctic regions.

      There have been many sightings of the aurora in the states over the decades and centuries, but they are most common during peaks of solar cycles. I mentioned earlier today here that the peak of solar cycle 25 was the reason for this, and the peak of solar cycle 25 can lasts months, and so far as much more intense than predicted.

      Reply

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