Friday October 11 2024 Forecast (7:12AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

High pressure brings fair weather with a milder trend through Saturday as the center of high pressure to the south will allow moderation from west to east across the Northeast. However this is not a turn to a warmer pattern. There are other changes upcoming and we’ll see those get underway during the holiday weekend. A dry cold front will whistle through the region during Saturday, delivering some gusty wind and a quick cool-down at night in contrast to a pretty mild day. Low pressure will come at us via the Great Lakes on Sunday, and its warm front will bring a shot at some rainfall before we break into the warm sector briefly sometime that evening into early Monday. At that time, a cold front will cross the region with additional showers and gusty wind, the latter of which will hang around during the balance of the day, shifting to northwest and delivering another Canadian air mass, the coolest of the autumn so far, which you’ll really notice heading toward mid week.

TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by passing patches of high cloudiness. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: A few cloud patches early, departing to the southeast. Overnight high cloud shield increasing west to east. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty early, diminishing, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken first thing with a period of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with passing rain showers possible midday and afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind SE under 10 MPH then SW 5-15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain showers likely. Lows 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with rain showers likely, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67 in the morning then cooling into the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 30 at times.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

A very chilly air mass around mid week, moderating gradually later next week. An upper low may deliver a quick shower of rain or snow early October 16, otherwise this will be a dry stretch of weather as upper level low pressure gives way to zonal flow and surface high pressure. Additionally, after we get rid of an initial period of windy weather, calmer conditions should allow for fairly widespread frost and even some light freezing conditions mid week next week, exceptions urban centers and immediate seacoasts. More about this later…

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Trend remains for continued fairly dry pattern and up-and-down temperatures but averaging slightly above normal for the period.

48 thoughts on “Friday October 11 2024 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Creative post to end yesterday’s blog.

    I had frozen dew on my car’s windows this morning.

    Spectacular aurora show last night.

    Reply

    1. I do stuff like that all the time in text messages to people. 😉

      The aurora was amazing and topped the May 10 event, which I thought would not happen even with the peak of Solar Cycle 25 still far from done (our opportunities for these displays go on into next year with the peak of the 11 year cycle in July.

      This particular solar cycle is over-achieving expectation, hence the more numerous opportunities in comparison to the much weaker Solar Max for SS 24 (which maxed out in 2014). Our min was 2019 which marks the beginning of Solar Cycle 25, which (as I said above) peaks next summer. So we have about another year and change in which these opportunities can occur with increased frequency.

      The previous 2 maxes (23 & 24) produced far less aurora activity that was visible in areas such as ours. Solar Cycle 22 had a strong max that produced a spectacular show similar to last night’s in March 1989, visible with naked eye over a couple hours on one particular night in mid March.

      We also have to keep this in mind. The peak of this 11 year cycle is coming at a time where we have more cameras with night sight, and social media “getting the word out” more than any previous time. This is the exact same thing I mention when people remark about hearing about more severe weather than ever before. It’s not that there is more severe weather than before, it’s that we OBSERVE and REPORT more of it. Technology and communication make this possible. Another example is the increased ability to detect tornadoes (especially the small, short-lived ones) since the arrival and improvment of 88D.

      Reply

      1. There’s a lot of truth to that.

        For example, with the eye, I could see a little color, but the camera really saw it vividly. Without that modern technology, I wouldn’t have thought it was as great a show as it was.

        Reply

  2. Good morning andcthank uou TK.

    45 here this morning for coldest so far.
    Not that 45 is particularly cold.

    could not see light show from my house
    my son got some nice shots down the street in Brookline I’ll post a few in alittle while.

    Reply

    1. This was taken from the West side of the Brookline Resevoir not very far from my house. Route 9 would be just to the left
      and as you can see, Boston is dead ahead.

      Reply

    1. I think I’ll pass on the cog today.

      The last time I was up a couple summers ago, it was a hot summer day at the base, in the mid 80s and it was about 55F at the summit, with in and out fog and splashes of sun with clouds ripping by.

      Reply

      1. I’ve climbed to the top twice.
        Once in September with 70s at base and 30 degrees with ice at the summit.

        Another time it was in the summer and it was misty/rainy miserable. We had NO business climbing that day, but being young and foolish we did. Wasn’t too cold atop the mountain, probably 60s.

        Reply

  6. What an amazing night. The aurora was as brilliant at 7:45 with the naked eye as it was with the camera. At 10:00 it was easily visible but the camera added to the brilliance. First six from 7:45. Last two from 10:00

    https://ibb.co/jGX8733
    
https://ibb.co/FVFTRZT
    
https://ibb.co/r3n4X21
    
https://ibb.co/SJZwQ0k
    
https://ibb.co/6FtTy2k
    
https://ibb.co/MRR0rcX
    
https://ibb.co/XtB6tkX

    https://ibb.co/mtT8gyJ
    https://ibb.co/fknxJzK

    Reply

    1. My father In law was blessed to see them once when they lived in Sweden. He and I talked of them often I never had a bucket list; but if I did, the only thing in it would be to see the northern lights.

      Mac and family spent summers sailing the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic Seas when they lived in Rome. My FIL mostly sailed by the stars, and I have some fun stories around that, including waking up anchored in the middle of the fifth fleet in Anzio. But they never were able to see rhe Aurora. I feel blessed today only five days after my FILs angel day

      Reply

  7. Survey on Milton’s Palm Beach Gardens tornado …. an EF 3

    Also, max surge looked to be btwn 5 and 10 ft.

    Info from CNN live updates on Milton.

    Reply

  8. Here is another shot my son took last evening where he
    caught the tail end of the most intense display so he got some of the green as well. Again this is from the Brookline Reservoir about 2-3 miles from my house.

    https://ibb.co/zGbKgy2

    Reply

  9. I wonder, if the Monday cold front were to slow down a bit, if southern New England might get some thunderstorms ?

    Deepening trof as it passes thru with an accompanying deepening surface low. Dps briefly to the upper 50s to low 60s with decent dynamics nearby.

    Right now though, the frontal passage is in the morning.

    Reply

    1. T J del santo WPRI seems to be a good resource. And weather in RI. They both seem to have fairly regular Aurora updates. T J said maybe tonight but not as spectacular as last night

      Reply

  13. Thanks TK! Great pictures y’all! I got some from my folks in Wrentham as well. Bummed not to see them but not exactly something that’s in the cards in my neck of the woods even on a night like that 🙂

    Trends look decent for a semi-beneficial rain event for portions of the northern mid-Atlantic and New England Sunday-Monday, though the overall pattern remains a dry one as TK has been saying.

    Also… Atlantic hurricane season is not over. Don’t pay attention to any specific model runs or over-the-top hype, but there is potential for another tropical cyclone to develop over the Caribbean in the next 7-10 days…

    Reply

    1. I chatted with my brother in law (Mac’s twin) who is just east of San Francisco. He said the same as you. But I guess it makes sense since the time of night it wss most present here were times before sun set there.

      Reply

      1. Sounds special. And with all the traveling Mac’s family did, they always recommended staying awake until the normal time. I had trouble with that but admire those who can

        Reply

  15. Spectacular photos from everyone who posted here of the aurora from last night! 🙂

    I only wish I looked out the windows. I had no idea the auroras were even in play. Oh well.

    Reply

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