The Week Ahead

98 Comments

8:14AM

A summertime week, with very warm to hot weather as a generally west to east flow dominates over the top of a ridge of high pressure dominating much of the central and eastern US. Much of the time will be rain-free in southern New England, but thunderstorms are possible in response to passing disturbances. Timing of these is always difficult but the current timing suggests Monday afternoon, Wednesday, and sometime over the weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, RI…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs generally in the 80s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms until midnight. Clearing overnight. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the middle to upper 80s. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower to middle 80s. Wind S 10-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 87.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 90.

SATURDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 69. High 92.

SUNDAY:  Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 85.

98 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Thank you TK and as always please do not worry about not updating since as you can see we amuse ourselves fairly well:)

    I love fireworks too but not the crowds – must be an old people thing 🙂 Have you ever seen the Needham display. I have heard others say it is excellent but I am far from a judge. Holliston is having them for the first time in my memory and we may take a trip there. I miss the display at the Natick Mall since we had a perfect viewpoint that was far removed from the traffic. I hope you enjoy each and every display as I’m sure they all have something different to offer.

  3. And since we are on the topic of fireworks……we drove over the Sudbury river in Wayland yesterday and it is lower than it was in late April/early May. That particular area was nearly dry and it is typically 30 or more feet wide. I checked the drought conditions and Worcester and maybe west Middlesex is still in unusually dry conditions.

    Are the private fireworks displays a danger more so this year because of the dry conditions?

    1. I haven’t heard anything about dryness impacting the fireworks. I think the river levels tend to drop more quickly anyway when the grounds are not frozen as more rainwater is absorbed versus running off along frozen ground.

      I went to several of those Natick Mall fireworks displays and watched from the top of the parking garage. 🙂

      1. I was wondering if fireworks could spark off a fire if they are near a wooded area – not the public displays but the ones people have in their back yard.

        Wow from the top of the garage would have been an awesome view. Have you gone into Boston for it’s display, TK? I keep saying I want to get a hotel room at the Hyatt on Memorial drive that overlooks the Charles.

        1. I have been at Boston’s every year since 1990. The first 2 years (1990 & 1991) I roamed in later in the day with friends to try to sneak a spot and we pulled it off in the standing-room-only category. The next year (1992) the fireworks were postponed a day due to cold/rain and we did something similar on July 5. 1993 was the year I started going earlier in the day and then got hit by the “Let’s get there early in the day and get a great spot” idea. So pretty much from 1994 onward it was an early morning trip in. We don’t go to the actual Oval where you can see the concert in person but down along the lagoon. My favorite spot to snag is directly across from the fireworks barges right on the bank of the river on the Boston side. You can hear everything just fine because of the sound system throughout the area, and of course we have a front row open view for the best fireworks in the world. 🙂

          To break up what is a very long day, we take a trip into the North End for pizza at Pizzeria Regina. This year we may head in that way even earlier to catch the Navy Blue Angels by the water between 11AM and 1PM. Hoping the weather is at least mostly cooperative. And yes you can leave your “stuff” back at the river all day. Once you claim a spot, its yours, and your neighbors are generally watchful over things while you are gone. We have never run into any problems with space or anything being taken in all the years we have gone there. 🙂

          1. I should add that we always plan for the chance of rain (unless it’s a lock for dry weather) and pack a couple of tarps and extra towels to cover things while we are gone, or to use if it rains while we are there. This has been put to use a few times during this ongoing 4th of July run, most notably 5 years ago in 2007 when though most of the day was rain-free and clouding over, but in the night came a steady soaking rain that tried to but did not dampen the spirits of that crowd. What a party in the rain that night. So even under those conditions, it’s a great time if you let it be so. 🙂

  4. Another question – is there any way to predict a derecho? I was reading more about them and one of the criteria I saw was they must produce a wind swath of 240 miles. That is mind boggling.

    1. You can predict conditions that are conducive to their development, but the event itself is almost one that can only really be observed as it is forming and tracked as it is occurring. These things in some ways can be compared to a land version of or a “cousin” of a tropical cyclone other than they don’t have a warm core low pressure center. They are still a mass of significant weather on a scale similar to that of a small tropical cyclone.

  5. Thanks TK.
    Mother Nature may be providing some natural fireworks on the 4th. Currently Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk for severe weather that day. The amount of sunshine we see that day is going to be the key how strong the storms are. I am favoring the interior as the best shot for severe storms so going with a 2 there and a 1 for the coastal areas. This is subject to change. Level 1 thunderstorm day today since I don’t think we see severe storms.

  6. TK thanks for both of your really GREAT posts – re fireworks and the derecho. Your trip to Boston for the fourth sounds wonderful. My mom and dad were guests of Mugar the first year he ramped up the fireworks – I could have been but didn’t. One of my regrets at being a foolish youngun (not so young even but foolish yes). We also love Pizzeria Regina – sounds as if you get the best of everything on that very special day.

    1. I try. Love enjoying Boston. The best city in the world.

      In fact, I’m on my way in to see the Tall Ships right now!

      Have a great day everyone. 🙂

      1. Enjoy the tall ships – they sure are a spectacular sight. We have also seen them several times including their very first sail into Boston in the early 70s. We were lucky enough to watch from one of the glass buildings overlooking the harbor. It is a phenomenal city.

  7. Good morning Uncle TK,

    How is Thursday through Saturday looking for Martha’s Vineyard? Similar forecast?

    1. Good morning Nephew Robbie (24 hours later, pardon the delay)!

      Thursday-Saturday look splendid for Martha’s Vinyard! Usually a few degrees can be chopping off a general forecast when looking at one for the islands in the summer.

      All 3 days look like they will be dominated by sun with limited clouds, with high temps from the upper 70s to lower 80s depending on what part of the island you are on. Slightly cooler if you are on the side the wind is coming from and slightly warmer if the wind has traveled over maximum island before reaching you. Not a huge difference either way.

  8. I heard some of the temps down south on the news this morning including 113 in Columbia SC – ugh. No one will ever convince me that is better than the few slightly below temps we have in MA during the winter.

    2. How Brad loves that hot stuff I will never understand. He probably enjoys those derechos as well. 😉

      1. i like the heat as well just not over 100 and remember the heat down there is along with humidity in most areas which make heat indexes even higher . If it was less humid it would at least be a little more tolerable.

        1. Matt I always thought that too. But my husband has a cousin in Phoenix and one in Tucson where it’s a much drier heat. Both say over 100 is over 100 and there is nothing good about it and you simply can’t go outdoors. In winter I’d bet there are never more than a couple of days – if that – where you can’t dress enough to be comfortable outside. Of course you’re talking to someone who might wear a jacket twice during the winter – except when its snowing – too so I may not be a good judge

  9. I feel for those people without power down in the Mid Atlantic with that heat and humidity.
    I am keeping an eye to the sky Wednesday but not cancelling plans. Storm Prediction Center has us in slight risk area. I am kind of surprised with so much uncertainty with regards to how much sunshine we get that they did not place us in the general thunderstorm category. Will see if that changes tomorrow since they don’t update the day 3 outlook until tomorrow when will get two updates one just after 1AM and the other just after 1:30 pm.

    1. Agreed! Dewpoints are back into the 50’s (57 last check). I just hope no thunderstorms spoil the day. 🙂

  11. Hey TK…since you obviously love fireworks so much I was wondering if you watch the fireworks on First Night on Boston Common and/or Boston Harbor as well? Up until now I always had the impression that you only attend fireworks displays in the distant suburbs far away from Boston. Back on the WBZ blog you only mentioned those locals. I am glad to know that you do come into the city of Boston on occasion for your enjoyment. 🙂

    1. Philip. We were in your are last night. Our son is looking to buy in the Brookline Brighton area. I’m thinking when he does we may send him to our house and take over his condo for a vacation. I’d love to be in Boston around Christmas time. Just going out the door for a walk after dark in washington square would be tons of fun.

    2. I love the city, Philip! I have not been to First Night. My long-standing tradition is to host a New Year’s party at home on that night, but I do watch them on TV. As much as I love to be at displays, that one is one of the few I am content to see on TV. Perhaps someday I will make a trip in for the earlier one, and then maybe some other adventurous time I will hit the later one. I have only been “not home” once on New Year’s at midnight in 45 years, and that was 1988-1989.

  13. Looking on the western horizon, seeing the big cumulus clouds. However, with a light Seabreeze, the clouds keep falling apart and thus it’s been a bright sunny daylight along the coastline. Ocean water extremely comfortable today !

    1. Storms literally on either side of us but not right over us. Thunder in the distance and light rain here. Good thing – they just arrived to install my grandson’s swing set. They brought the wrong one last Saturday and grandson was devastated. If they couldn’t install because of thunder it would have been sad. As it is he keeps asking if we are sure they have the right one this time 🙂

      1. Well, lets hope those storms avoid your location and that the swing set is the correct one. Happy grand kids a must !! 🙂

  14. For the second day in a row, at nearly the identical time, a thundershower has popped up just to the southwest of Marshfield. I am guessing it’s pouring in the Pembroke/Duxbury area. However, a cloud has seemed to extend off this storm and has it raining a bit here as well….with huge raindrops. However, today’s area of clouds don’t quite compare to yesterday’s towering monster. Yesterday’s storm was the tallest, darkest towering cumulus cloud I’ve seen in a few years.

  15. Very heavy downpour just came through North Attleboro with some gusty winds and occasional thunder

  16. We have lovely blue sky and nice air. Come on over! We are making mini calzones on the grill :). We can have a day early birthday cake for someone here too :))))

  17. Hey Tk-
    Just a reminder on the Bermuda forcast. We get there around 11am Sunday and head back Tuesday at 5:30. And also if you think it will be smooth sailing down and back. I am sorry to put you on the spot. Have a great 4th.

            1. Well how will I wish you a happy birthday on your real birthday. I’m wishing you an early one now if that’s ok 😀

              1. When is John’s bday? I think we have a log jam of July bdays. I believe Matt said his was today and mine is tomorrow 😀

    2. Looking pretty good there John. Sunday they run about a 40% chance of afternoon showers & t storms which would be passing and not lasting long. Monday-Tuesday look dry with sun & a few clouds. Morning lows 70-75, daytime highs 80-85, with typical humidity.

  18. Tom, I am hearing there is a children’s parade on the 4th at Rexham Beach. Have you ever been to this parade?

    1. Hi Coastal.

      No, we have not. After your post, I looked it up and I think it starts at 11:45am. Per Patriot Ledger, it says children’s parade and cookout……if you go, my suggestion is get there somewhat early. Town has been so busy lately. When that thunderstorm hit yesterday, there was a traffic jam headed into town center from all of the people pouring off of the beach.

        1. Thanks Tom.

          I’m just not sure where to park. We are early risers so getting there is easy, it’s keeping them awake at noon that could pose a problem. I’m guessing the beach would be a bad place to park. John what do you think?

          1. Coastal if there early you may be able to get in the parking lot where the events will be held. When i was a kid it was like ten am or somthing.

    2. Coastal its been a long tradition there. I went as a kid as my grandparents lived there. I remember the sack races and getting place ribbons. Good take. Have fun. Sorry not tom.

      1. Thank you coastal. You brought back a great memory. My grandparents had a huge fourth party every year. I was very close to them. They both have passed.

        1. I never went to that parade but the sack races etc brought back great memories for me too. Coastal you are on a roll tonight !!!!

  19. It looks like two rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the 4th. One in the morning and one in the afternoon. I am still surprised the storm prediction center has us in a slight risk because to me there is a lot of uncertainty how much the atmosphere will destablize once the showers and storms with the warm go through. I would be surprised come tomorrow that slight risk area looks the same.

      1. Wow – pretty cool that a facility as large as Patriots Place celebrates your birthday with fireworks!!!!

        Enjoy – it sounds like tons of fun!

        1. haha, just for me! 😀 I guess its the first annual fireworks display for the 4th over there, should be fun!

  22. TK on Ch 7 this morning I thought they said possible storms Sat and nice Sun. Did I hear incorrectly or did that change. We are to have my husband’s 95 year old aunt here for a cookout and we are attempting to make it the day where there is least chance of rain/storms. Thank you!!!

    1. All depends on the timing of a cold front and any pre-frontal trough that may occur.

      I don’t feel that we will see a whole lot of widespread action with that front this far out, and I have also wondered if that front doesn’t get bogged down trying to get through here and make Sunday an unsettled day that nobody is calling for right now. Jury’s out this far away. Wish I could give a more solid and confident reply, but at this point if you are flexible, hold off on your decision if you can.

        1. Excellent.

          In this type of situation you can see a front whistle through with a broken line of storms (some get them, some don’t). It could come in the overnight hours and leave both days completely rain-free. If only the timing of fronts and associated precipitation bands were possible so far out, you could have your plans all set now, but we’ll just have to monitor as we get closer.

          I have an outdoor event I am going to on Saturday evening so I am hoping that if any storms take place they are well before or well after the event or they miss the place. (The place being Middleton MA for Chief Wills Day which includes a $5 bbq and a nice fireworks display.)

  23. Happy Birthday AceMaster!!!
    I see the storm prediction center now has us in the general thunderstorm category for tomorrow. I am not surprsied by that given the uncertainty. If the first round of showers and storms moves away and we get enough sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere then those afernoon and evening storms could be on the strong to possibly severe side. I would favor the interior as the best shot to a see a LOCALLY severe storm tomorrw.

    1. Thanks JJ! If I recall, I think we are around the same age, 29 today.

      I will be somewhere along the south coast of RI tomorrow, either Misquamicut or Newport, what do you think the chances are of seeing severe weather down there?

      1. Hey AceMaster…. We are around the same age. I turned 28 back in April. Mother Nature has given you a nice a gift for your birthday today. What looks to happen tomorrow is two rounds of showers and thunderstorms. One coming through
        early in the morning with the warm front. I don’t expect severe weather with that. The thing to watch is how quickly
        the skies clear since we will be in the warm sector once the warm front comes through. If the sun comes out that will
        destabilze the atmosphere and the threat of strong to severe storms increase. If it stays cloudy after the warm front
        passage the threat of severe weather will be much lower. Storm Prediction Center currently has us in the general risk
        for thunderstorms and will be interesting when they update this after 1:30 pm if any area is upgraded to a slight risk.
        Right now I would favor interior areas of CT and MA west of Worcester for the best chance of seeing a locally severe
        storm. This is subject to change but that is what I am thinking right now.

        1. creek……creek……this is old lady Vicki saying thanks for the update, JJ………my son was 28 in March so is same age as you both……I’m feeling old

          Just kidding half the time I think I’m still 28 🙂

  24. I think I know how things are going to break down regarding the storm threat for July 4th.

    Giving more weight to the morning MCS coming across New England but it will probably be weakening as it gets to eastern MA so a round of threatening sky, showers and possible thunder, maybe a burst of wind in a few locations, then some lingering cloudcover in through late morning or possibly midday, limiting destabilization in eastern MA. Mid afternoon through early evening we see a squall line evolve in NY and move into western MA then do the “SE dive” across CT and possibly RI, missing most of eastern MA. A few other pop up storms across VT & NH stay north of the Boston area before fading away in the evening.

    This same scenario plays out often in the summer, and has occurred on July 4 in recent years.

    If I were to make a detailed forecast for folks on the Charles (Esplanade, Lagoon, boats), at this point I’d call for an overcast and threatening dawn, and if it isn’t raining, showers would soon be moving through, with perhaps a gusty wind at the start and a few rumbles of thunder during. Cut the showers off by late morning and keep it mostly cloudy through around noon (though the sky will brighten). Partly cloudy afternoon with more sun but still some passing clouds. Blow-off from the squall line decorates the western sky late afternoon and darkens the southern sky early evening, while half decent visibility (only some haze) allows distant towering cumulus and thunderstorms to be visible in NH and southern Maine as you look to the N & NE in the early evening. Maybe the outflow from these storms kick off a couple cells that track across northern Middlesex and/or Essex County MA before moving offshore.

    Most cities/towns do not have problems with their fireworks displays due to weather.

    Let’s see how this pans out…

    Blog update coming shortly.

  25. Thanks TK

    I saw that they had cancelled the bonfires and are not allowing fireworks on Humarock today. It is a huge celebration down there and the fires are enormous. They said they had a wakeup call when the three houses went so quickly in the March fire.

    I absolutely get their point but sure think they could have made this decision before today since many plan their vacation week around the activities and many take today off from work to make the trip there.

        1. even sparklers are banned John – the whole kit and kaboodle.

          There is a man who set up a sort of sign with the palates he’d planned to use. His house is four down from the one we rent. I can just see the edge of our rental in one of the pictures.

      2. My daughter and family have been there every weekend and were planning trip today – it wasn’t very well marked and two weeks isn’t enough warning either for anyone who either planned the week around it or who took the day.

        I absolute, 110% agree with banning them. They have good reason – would have been nice to do sooner.

    2. My manager’s husband is a Scituate firefighter and it looks like they are starting to loosen up a bit about the bonfires in Humarock. She predicts that there will still be fires but naturally the police and fire officials will be monitoring closely.

      1. That’s good to know – thanks Sue. It’s a really tough call. I am convinced the only reason that the fire stopped in March was because of the empty lot on the other side of the third house.

        We have fires on the beach every year when we are there. BUT we are incredibly conscientious about making sure they are out. Others around us are not that careful.

        1. Vicki- just my two cents. I would be shocked if scituate
          has fires tonight. from what I understood this is now a ban that will stay lasting. I have read many stories on this the last week and there not kidding. There saying because of those house fires in march. but that is an excuse for them. I remember when my hometown marshfield put the ban on, never came back.

          1. John I am not so sure it’s an excuse as it is a wakeup call. I was just talking to my business associate who is at his place in Kennebunkport and he said never would individual bonfires be permitted on any beach in that area. Way too risky. Whether something has ever happened isn’t the case – it only takes a second for something to happen. A controlled bonfire would be fine. I see what people on Humarock do in the summer with regular little fires – they leave them to burn out and go to sleep.

            I would think it should be a forever type of thing. I’m not sure so however Sue isn’t right that they will back off a bit on the restrictions.

  26. Thanks TK for that possible scenario for tomorrow. If that verifies, my afternoon BBQ should go off without any issues. I guess I should root for lots of “action” tomorrow morning and no sun until much later on, correct? I hate thunderstorms at any time, but in this case, morning would be best and get it over with.

  27. Andy Griffith passed away – it was reported to the news agencies by the local sheriff where he lives in NC which seems very fitting.

  28. Must be entering the heart of summer. On the north pole web cam, the melt ponds are easily visible today in the sea of ice….it’s funny at the pole, when it’s bright and sunny in summer, that’s actually a sign that it’s cold. The melt ponds will be frozen solid. But in today’s pictures, it’s low clouds galore, a sign of mild air running over the snow/ice covered world.

  29. Still in the general thunderstorm category for tomorrow according to the storm prediction center with their latest update.
    At least one good thing it will not be an all day washout.

    1. JJ – any sense on what the weather in the Kennebunkport area will be tomorrow? I have a friend who is running in a race there at 9:00 am and hoping to take in festivities and fireworks at night.

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