DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
If you have a yard sale or outdoor projects planned today, it won’t be rainfall associated with a passing cold front that will be your nemesis. There won’t be any. But what will cause you some issues is the wind. Parenting low pressure in eastern Canada and a high pressure area to our south have quite a difference in their respective central pressures, and the gradient between them will really make the air move, blowing from the west initially and shifting to the northwest as the frontal boundary moves across the region through midday. It will be mild with high temps in the 60s, maybe touching 70 in a few places before cooler air starts to move in later. Tonight, the feel of that gusty, cool fall evening will be the real deal as the breeze keeps up, only subsiding late at night, and much cooler air arrives. The balance of the holiday weekend is going to be more unsettled, however. The front that moves by today will become stationary to our south and only make a modest push back northward as a warm front during Sunday. Approaching low pressure from the west will add moisture, so by morning we’re cloudy, and overrunning rainfall then develops from west to east. This rain is going to favor locations near and north of I-90. To the south, where the slope of the front means the warmer air will be closer to the surface means that a more showery rainfall pattern will exist there. Eventually, low pressure tracks across southern portions of the region, along the frontal boundary, bringing additional showery rain to the region Sunday night into Monday. As the low moves away, we return to a blustery, cool regime with dry weather moving in, and the coolest airmass of the season so far for Tuesday and Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W shifting to NW, 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH, even up to 40 MPH in some higher elevation locations.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds from west to east overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing to under 10 MPH and becoming variable, then shifting to E toward dawn.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, most especially near and north of I-90. Highs 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH may become variable or S to SW along the South Coast.
MONDAY: Cloudy start with rain showers likely, then rain showers diminish as clouds break for sun at times. Highs 55-62. Wind variable becoming NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 30 at times.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37, except 38-45 urban locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)
High pressure brings fair weather through mid period at least, with a gradual moderating trend. Unsettled weather may return by period’s end.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)
Unsettled weather potential early period, then fair weather returns. Variable temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal.
Thanks TK
This might be the first Judah Cohen tweet posted here since last winter.
https://x.com/judah47/status/1844796999775801684
Don’t hold your breath, but at lease a word if encouragement.
I’ll continue to breath normally, thanks. 🙂
So is that a hint? 🙂
I’d like to see him do a post-mortem on the summer outlook first. 🙂
Thanks TK!
Good morning and thank you TK.
Time is just flying by!!!!
Thanks TK !
Thanks, TK.
For those interested, you’ll find my latest batch of Forbes articles here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/
Thanks Joshua. I look at many of these and have also told many folks about your writing.
I’m going to the SNE Weather Conference 2 weeks from today. Should be interesting to gauge where the community is these days. Harvey is the M.C., but that’s certainly not why I’m going. I actually wish it was still Mr. Field from NWS. Or better yet, Dave Vallee, the best public speaker ever. And a damn good clarinet player to boot. 🙂 Anyway, should be interesting. We are going to have a panel discussion on the winter outlook to end the program. Judah is not on the panel. 😉 It’s also at Meditech, the place where the security kicked my son out from under their awning when he had to take shelter from a severe thunderstorm moving through until I arrived to pick him up. I’ll never forgive them for that, and I spoke about it very honestly, and angrily, in a Google review. And it was well-deserved too. I actually held back a bit. 😉
But right now, I’m going to my friend’s daughter’s soccer game! Have a great day! See you next update…
Can’t wait to hear about your findings when the event happens. Have a great warm october day!
I’ve created an extensive database for the analysis of fall foliage. It’s photos of one tree over three years 🙂
Here’s my analysis.
Oct 15, 2022 – Amazing
https://ibb.co/zJnzkfM
Oct 8, 2023 – Ugly
https://ibb.co/KqJvhJs
Oct 11, 2024 – Not bad
https://ibb.co/nr1Tctk
This maple is probably between 150 and 200 years old. Nineteen years ago it was being aggressively tapped by a local maple syrup guy and looked like it was dying. After he stopped doing that, the tree made an astounding recovery over the next few years. Now it’ll probably outlive us all!
Beautiful out !!
40s/50s last night.
70F by day.
40 degree sun angle.
North central FL in deep winter, I’ll take 180 more days of this to get us to April.
Recalling the tropical season of 1886 with SEVEN Gulf Coast hurricane landfall. THREE of them in Florida’s Big Bend over a 7 week period in June and July.
Now that can be considered unprecedented.
Thanks for your note, TK, on my Forbes pieces. Always appreciated.
SClarke, thanks for posting the pictures of the beautiful tree.
Thanks for the articles. Was interested in the PBM battles with the feds.
Thanks TK.
Another month or two (probably just one with this air mass) and some folks over upstate NY and Central-Northern New England would be in for a very solid snow event tomorrow into Monday, then a couple more days of squalls. Strengthening clipper system with classic track-parallel overrunning signature, likely to overperform on QPF along and north of track.
But not much beyond scattered showers south of track like TK said, and from there it’s back to the dry doldrums. An old acquaintance of mine in NJ, he’s a long time cranberry farmer, had a 30 acre brush fire very close to his neighborhood yesterday…
Invest 94L. A nothing wave for now and for me, it can stay that way!
Tomer Burg
http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/?storm=AL942024
7-Day
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
The brief burst of activity in the Atlantic can be tied fairly directly to a shift in the NAO phase.
Overall the season continues to under-perform expectation, in terms of number of storms in many forecasts.
72F, rh 19% for a dp of 27F at Logan.
Breezy, surprised there isn’t a red flag warning.
Very Breezy here!! Had a sandwich on a paper plate for lunch and the wind came in the open window and picked up plate and my cookies and blew it away. 🙂 pretty funny actually. Yeah, that’s how windy it is.
That sounds like some days eating at the beach!
Except there probably aren’t any seagulls grabbing your food 🙂
That’s the second cookies & wind incident I know of today. My friend had some blow over with her chair at a soccer game. ALL of them survived. But then she dropped one. 😛
And back to sleep with the tropics…
ATLANTIC
Leslie = gone.
Disturbance in MDR has little chance of development in the short range and a slightly better chance in the medium range, but even if it does, it’s a fish storm. Gulf is quiet, as actual meteorology and not fiction for clicks dictates. Funny how that works eh?
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
Zippo!
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
Zippo!
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
One disturbance near the northern Philippines, no immediate development.
NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
Disturbance west of India, no immediate development.
ACE for the northern hemisphere is running considerably below normal for the season-to-date, and with only weeks to go in the main tropical seasons, I’m betting it stays that way.
New post.