42 thoughts on “Saturday October 19 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)”

1. Good morning and thank you TK.

2. Thanks TK !

3. Thanks TK
   My car is going to have days of shine with this forecast.

4. Thanks Tk

5. 48F atop Mt Washington and 53F at 1,000 ft Worcester airport. Mild to warm air just above.

   Tropical storm Nadine was able to form. Handful to several hrs til landfall. They actually have a recon plane en route.

   1. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=94L&product=vis_swir

      And this north of the Dominican Republic, which looks much better this morning, as the shear has relaxed.

      1. It does, doesn’t it? Yet the global models did NOT pick up on it.
         Perhaps with the 12Z runs??????

         1. https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

         2. If it does anything, looks like it will exit stage right

            https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_tracks_12z.png

         3. This just underscores the inability of those models to provide useful tropical information most of the time.

            This stuff has to be done more in short-term / real-time ways for initial organization and development.

            1. Interesting that the global models were all over
               Helene and Milton. Sometimes they do and sometimes they don’t, sometimes they will and sometimes they won’t.

               https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6umzE7RHdQ

               1. Inconsistency. That’s the problem. There are many other clues that will help us figure out if the guidance is finding something legit or not, but the ensembles are key to that process, for sure.

      2. Two weeks & I will be at the Dominican

6. Thanks, TK.

7. Well, hello Oscar !!

8. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0115A-NADINE.png

   Nadine very close to landfall.

9. Thanks TK

   Up to 60 from an overnight low of 30.

10. Will this upcoming warm spell temporarily put a halt of the fall colors on the trees? Are vibrant fall colors temperature dependent among other factors?

    1. Not really. This is not going to be an exceptionally warm warm spell. Just a period of above normal temps. Won’t have much impact on the season. Even during this, nights are still pretty cool.

       The vibrancy of the fall colors is type-of-tree-dependent for one thing, but in large part is really going to be due to a combination of longer-term and shorter-term factors impacting (favorably or unfavorably) each tree.

       The single biggest trigger for starting the color change is length of day. Temperatures trends and longer term moisture (drought, etc.) are next. Then come antecedent and current weather conditions.

11. Oscar is nearly a hurricane !!

    1. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-0216A-OSCAR.png

       1. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-0216A-OSCAR_timeseries.png

          Credit to tropical tidbits both links

          1. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/191708.shtml

12. Oscar is probably a minimal hurricane at this point, but the difference between a strong tropical storm and a bottom-end category 1 hurricane is essentially negligible. If there’s some good news, the steering flow for Oscar keeps its worst mostly over water and a limited number of islands. After that it should get lifted northeastward and away from the US Mainland.

13. Oscar a hurricane with sustained winds at 80 mph

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    1. 12Z Global and Hurricane models swung and missed on this thing for sure!

       1. Someone at the NHC was on the ball and had this as 60% this morning, That person saw something.

          1. Although the global ensembles surely hinted at something
             cooking. 🙂 I guess I should look at them MORE often than I do. 🙂

             1. SAK & I always say .. ensembles before op runs when hunting for potential tropical development with those models. They’re not well-equipped to pick stuff out with single runs. Sometimes they get it. Many times they don’t. And more often than both they develop fictional systems. Just not reliable.

                The person at NHC saw something because they were paying attention, and using meteorology, not modelology. 🙂

                1. excellent. thank you.

    2. Oscar the grouch? 🙂

       1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tE9uKTgmQvY

14. Beware: Fake weather sites are touting a “massive Halloween storm” because one is depicted near the East Coast on today’s 12z GFS. It has NO support from ensembles. Ignore any posts like this you see and don’t share them either.

    1. I think I must have blocked all of them. I never see these kinds of posts.

       1. A lot of them now are popping up as YouTube suggestions for me. YouTube sends them to me because I watch weather-related videos. I still see a lot of them shared on FB from random people, not on friends list or anything. Algorithm-driven, of course.

          1. I watch a ton of weather but have learned to love the block option.

          2. Ya know the one exception to the rule.

             This just showed up.

             Now to use another cliche and play devils advocate. Didn’t gfs sniff out other storms early.

             And trust me… I will not share or reply

             https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1847682834372157807?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

             1. you can forget about that one. 🙂
                🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

                1. GONE on the 18Z

                   https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024101918&fh=282&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

                   1. What would we expect? 🙂

                2. I already had.

15. New post!

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