What From The Sky On The 4th Of July?

133 Comments

4:06PM

As a splendid summer day comes to an end, we look ahead to the 4th of July holiday tomorrow, and what the weather will bring. Will outdoor plans get messed up? Will fireworks displays go off as scheduled? Though the exact answer to these questions is not answerable yet for every location, the general answer is that outdoor plans will not get messed up too much and that fireworks displays will be a go in just about every location. This is based on the timing of both a warm front crossing the region in the morning and a cold front arriving in the evening, and the weather in between the 2 fronts…

As the sun sinks in the western sky this Tuesday evening you will notice some high clouds out there. This is the leading edge of a warm front that will move across New England from west to east during the Wednesday morning hours. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will be associated with this warm front, and may be quite strong as it approaches the area from the west. My feeling is that the area overall will be weakening as it arrives near or shortly after dawn. It may still be strong enough to bring a threatening sky, some gusty wind, and a round of showers and storms with possible heavy rain. This should then exit west to east by mid morning, and the sky will brighten as clouds break behind it. The key to any afternoon and evening thunderstorms is how much sun occurs between the passage of the warm front in the morning and the arrival of the cold front in the evening. I suspect plenty of sun to the west, over western New England and New York, will ignite a line or 2 of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some other isolated showers and storms may pop up further east in parts of central and eastern MA, and southern NH, and even RI, but I don’t expect any of these to organize into large areas or linger over any location for very long. Previous experience tells me that lines of storms from the west in this set up will eventually take an east southeast route from western MA across CT and RI. If this is the case, the main activity would miss the Boston area. Also, any storms that do make it into eastern MA may weaken as this area may not have enough sun to become very unstable during the afternoon. One thing is for sure, it will turn warm and rather humid during the day on Wednesday, but highest temperatures should be in the middle to possibly upper 80s, at least below the 90+ readings that would make a humid day very difficult to be outside in.

When we get to Wednesday night, I think any activity that is going on will be moving out by 9PM, in time for most fireworks displays. The rest of the night should be fairly quiet but warm and still on the humid side. It will take until Thursday morning for drier air to work in enough to be felt.

Thursday will be a great summer day as high pressure dominates with warm, drier air. This high pressure area will slide offshore into the western Atlantic Friday and Saturday, allowing heat and eventually humidity back into the region. An approaching cold front later Saturday may set off some thunderstorms, but the timing of this system many days away is uncertain. The front may slow down and keep Saturday storm-free, but make Sunday unsettled. Time will tell. Early next week looks seasonable and dry.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds increase west to east. Lows 62-67. Wind SW to S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning with showers and thunderstorms crossing the region from west to east. Briefly gusty winds and briefly heavy rain may occur anywhere. Partly cloudy from midday through most of the afternoon with only a slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in a few locations. Variably cloudy late day/evening with another risk of showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas southwest and south of Boston. More humid. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Any showers and storms ending early, then partly cloudy. Evening temperatures hanging in the 70s then overnight lows in the 60s. Humid. Wind variable around 10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-88, closer to 80  parts of Cape Cod and Islands and any north-facing coastal areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 89.

SATURDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 71. High 94.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. High 86.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 84.

133 thoughts on “What From The Sky On The 4th Of July?”

  4. Heading to Danvers tonight (big fireworks display there at 9:30PM, 1/2 hour long and set to music). Leaving for Boston bright (or not so bright depending on the weather) and early in the morning. Everything is packed and ready except the ice for the cooler and the snacks/drinks which are always last minute of course. I have 2 batteries for my phone so I should be able to check in here from the banks of the River Charles and during our side trip over to the North End and the Waterfront.

    1. Tk have fun and stay safe. Sounds like bermuda will have nice weather. Many thanks for looking into that for me.

        1. We all are vicki. One more day of work. Being off tomorrow vicki breaks it up nice. Happy 4th vicki.

          1. Happy fourth to you also. It’s a special celebration for a very wonderful country’s birth.

            Ok listening to patriotic music also makes me sentimental – can you tell.

    3. TK. My very favorite are the one set to music. Especially patriotic music. My family thinks I’m a bit,over the top but I love playing patriotic music on the fourth – all day. Enjoy

    4. I’m jealous… you have a blast TK! It’s been a couple of years since I’ve been able to head down to the river on the Fourth (since my ‘not so successful’ knee replacement to be exact) Maybe next year!! I will be thinking of you when I watch the fly-over, fly over my house 🙂 Have a Happy, Safe Fourth of July!!!!

      1. Thank you! We will all think positive thoughts for you so that next year you can join the party in person again!

      2. The planes usually come out as far as Framingham. I’m hoping they do tomorrow. I thought there was to be a show too but was that the other day?

  6. Are we factoring in the current marine layer? Boston has had a sea breeze since around 3PM.

    1. It’s a very shallow marine layer, right near the coast, and only partially seabreeze and more actual pre-warm frontal gradient wind. Whatever is left of it will be gone as soon as that front passes in the morning. Granted, the wind behind the warm front will not be that strong and more southerly than southwesterly for a while, which will not add much to the destabilization. I still think storms may have trouble surviving to the coast.

      Also, we now have to watch one more impulse to the north later at night which may set off a west to east oriented line that drops south southeast from VT/NH later at night, hopefully after any fireworks are done.

  7. Happy fourth to everyone

    Torrential rain here. From
    Sudbury into Framingham. We are driving and can barely see

  9. Clearing here John. We had 0.5 inch in about 30 minutes. 0.7 for the day. Hope that downpour does not head to Boston.

    1. Looks as if it went just west of Boston and is heading toward south shore but in a somewhat weakened state

  10. Happy 4th everyone !

    Today is also the day that earth is at aphelion, its furthest distance from the sun, around 94.5 million miles away……..this compares to perihelion, which occurs just after New Year’s Day at around 91.4 million miles away. This makes summer in the northern hemisphere around 4 days longer than winter.

  11. I hope everyone has a great 4th of July today!
    Thunderstorm Index at a 1 should storms fire they should remain below severe levels. Will see how that plays out as the day goes on.

    1. Interesting…it seems to be the opposite here. There are patches of blue, but the low clouds are being a bit stubborn. It sure is tropical feeling out there.

          1. Aren’t they. Rainshine must be having July 4 fun. She enjoys the clouds too. Tom too but I can see the layer of clouds down your way tom 🙁

  13. happy 4 of july. sunny ,humid and it is about 84 outside. with a light breeze coming from the east

  14. Yesterday, the 12z run of the EURO and the GFS strengthened a trof in southeast Canada and the Northeast that would have brought in a much drier and somewhat cooler airmass for a decent stay next week.

    Today’s 0z EURO and from what I can see of the 12z GFS have the same trof, but it’s not as deep or long lasting.

  15. Ok, for the 3rd time in 4 days…a heavy shower has popped up on the south shore….this time including Marshfield. Chased us off of Rexhame Beach……wow, was there a gentle, but beautiful cool breeze right at the water’s edge.

    1. Tom I saw that. Was there thunder or just rain. And darn. It’s the only one on the radar.

      1. Very heavy rain…..but no thunder/lightning. I’m guessing .25 inches in about 10 to 15 minutes.

  17. Severe thunderstorm watch now posted southward to Mass/NH border. Nasty looking storm in Laconia, NH area, headed south/southeast. It could be interesting in Boston a few hours from now.

    1. I’m thinking with its track it will go out to sea above Boston. I hope. I saw those an hour or so ago and they were tiny cells. Boy did they blogs up.

        1. Indeed ! And Burlington, VT looks like its going to get hit. Wonder how many people are out in boats in Lake Champlain ?

          1. Tons. I’m guessing there are many displays through the islands. I spent part of my youth summers on isle la motte at my nanas. She was the only one on the island who didn’t have an outhouse. I was jealous of those who did. Sorry. I suspect you all know by now I love family memories. Tom thanks for this one 🙂

          2. Wow I just checked the radar. Lots of nasty storms north of here. Mother nature I’d joining in the festivities. Sure hope everyone is safe

            2. had my own in my back yard, fireworks go off right on the other side of the marsh. I have my pool area all lit up and the new patio it looks like a resort 😀 and the fireworks will be going off at 10 if weather coroperates

  18. Any update as to the storm near Andover? My mom is watching her 1 month old grand daughter alone and I am a bit nervous.

    1. Oh wow coastal. I see why you are nervous. Darn. It looks to be weakening but someone far more knowledgeable than I need to answer your question.

  20. I’m watching the Boston pops coverage. We Need TK to wake the crowd up. I don’t think I’ve ever heard one so unresponsive. I’d say the heat but I believe it was hotter the last two years

  21. some nasty storms out there and they all seem to be following the same path . I think boston will not see anything until after the fireworks but essex and middlesex counties have to look at the sky.

      1. should be safe until 1030pm or later. but there is alot of heat lightning out and about seeing some heat lightning. but Just saw radar and it has the storm just going to the west or north of boston which means that it has changed directions . currently radar is saying that it will be nearing boston around 10pm to 1030 first thought that boston and southern middlesex will remain storm free until after 11 or later

    1. My brother in laws parents stopped by right before the storm hit so she is not alone. So that is a bit of a load off my shoulders.

      1. Thanks Tom.

        We did notable it to Marshfield this morning but instead checked out the Hingham Parade. What a great time, they did a terrific job!

      2. I see that too. It must move pretty fast. I was holding my finger on Andover when I posted a bit ago. BUT there is a 5 minute delay on the radar on my iPad

      1. That cell, when it was in NH, had a history of wind…..so, even though it’s going to Boston’s northeast……it will be interesting to see if it freshens the wind out of the northeast for a bit in Boston. (outflow boundary)

  24. According to the 9:15 pm radar there is a very strong cell between Lawrence and Peabody. Assuming this is moving due south and does not weaken, Boston is going to get clobbered. Pray that these storms are moving more southeasterly!

  25. On the Taunton NWS web page, the link for storm damage and clicking northern New England has many reports in it from late afternoon and this evening……unfortunately including 2 struck by lightning in Laconia, NH and a tree down on a car with someone trapped in the car.

  26. On CBS there are kids there trying to figure out why all there playing are 60’s,70’s and 80’s style music,, haha a bunch of them got on tv and was waiting for the next song to start dancing and on tv everyone looked at each other with a frown and sat down 🙂

  28. The sky’s are lighting up her with that storm north of Boston. Concert has been stopped for now.

  30. Looks as if cell went OTS south of lynn and just north of Boston. I hope I’m seeing it right. And if so thank heavens.

  31. After tonight we get two day break from thunderstorms before Saturday ahead of another frontal passage. Plenty of time to keep watch that situation.

  32. Has anyone watched channel 7!! NYC is competing live national broadcast and what a difference in shows, haha it’s kinda crazy 🙂

  33. As much as I hate NYC they can put on a show, I’m curious what the rating will be considering this is NYC’s 1st yr national televised and this is Boston’s 9th yr and always had high ratings, I got a feeling CBS’s ratings will be down from last yr, will c, it’s just in NYC there just having fun and everythings more modern, just my opinion 🙂

    1. My 5 yr old grandson made me switch back to the pops. Ratings are overrated :). Enjoy the show Charlie.

            1. That’s why you have a remote. Watch what you enjoy. Happy fourth Charlie. I’m more worried about the cell out there now than ratings

        3. Plus I go out to the truck for 5 min and come back in and there watching channel 7, i said change it back to 4, I got a bad feeling about this

  34. That line just entering MA from VT seems to be following a line to this area but my guess is it’ll run out of steam before it gets here.

    1. I meant that cell. Sorry. I’m watching pops and typing. Multi tasking doesn’t work as well for me after 10 pm 🙂

  35. Not to be Mr. Negative news….but here comes a heavy shower popping up just west/northwest of Boston. Shows up well on ch 4 interactive radar.

    1. It just popped. Do you think it’ll stay just west of Boston. I’m counting on TK to wish them all away

      1. I’m not sure…it’s close….Speaking of TK, I’ll be interested to see if he comments about the lightning and the evacuation.

  37. The 1 thing Boston does have is a class act firework display, a little work on entertainment and it’ll be great 🙂

  38. Amazing…big 10 minute downpour here in Dorchester and a clap of thunder to boot while fireworks at the Esplanade go off without a hitch. Talk about “scattered” showers, lol. 🙂

    Great light show…as always! 🙂

  39. Phenomenal fireworks. TK I envy you. Wonderful fourth. As John Adams said a day to be celebrated for years to come with pomp and circumstance. I’m paraphrasing 🙂

  40. Not that I don’t put safety 1st, but there were more injuries from the evacuation than the storm itself

  41. People were ordered to seek shelter inside the Storrow Drive tunnel during the evacuation. I wonder if TK did as well.

  42. Good morning – I’m curious to hear from TK about last night’s events. Even on TV the fireworks were spectacular. I heard people were told to head to the storrow drive underpass and the boston common garage and one other place (Heinz auditorium maybe??) A few of those are a hike and an underpass would make me nervous.

    72 here and the promise of a lovely day 🙂

  43. I found this re the evacuation – I love that people were singing in the tunnels while waiting to return to the concert. I had a conversation with Pete B once about the dangers of lightening. He told me if you can hear thunder you can be struck by lightening and that lightening coming from a storm that has passed can come back to strike someone and because of the energy required to go “backwards” is more powerful.

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/07/04/esplanade-evacuated-due-to-severe-storms/

  44. If you hear thunder head indoors for safety.
    Speaking of thunder Saturday will be a day to watch as storm prediction center has areas Boston south in the slight risk for severe weather. A lot of questions with this and it looks like there could be a cap which would prevent thunderstorms from developing.

    1. JJ I totally agree. It’s funny because all of my friends know I love weather so make fun of me when I am inside the second I hear something. They say they don’t understand how I can like it and be afraid of it. I figure it’s not really being afraid but I sure as heck do respect it.

  45. nyc has nothin on our 4 of july celebration. our firework display is one of the top expecially since we do it to live music. More patriotic. Philip at least we have the patriots which have seemed to get some good defense durring the draft.

    1. I do not want those yet. I want these 80s or higher highs through at least mid september and then it can in october. it can get chilly again. but no snow. then get it nice and cold for december with snow.

  48. This morning’s EURO and GFS suggest that the Bermuda High may be making an appearance, building in later next week. By 7 to 10 days out, they suggest the jet stream will retreat further north…..residing somewhere in southern Canada, north of most of the continental US.

    Most of New England’s warmth has occurred lately when a piece of the Midwest heat has broken off and headed eastward during a brief retreat of the northeast broad trof. However, if the long range GFS and EURO are on target, then true HHH weather may be building in after the middle of next week under a strengthening east coast ridge.

  50. Regarding last night’s concert, I am wondering if the State Police are in constant communication with the WBZ Weather Team and/or NWS. ❓

    Also, I heard on the morning news that some people were told that the remainder of concert was cancelled and left for home so they missed the fireworks. ❓

    1. I figure there would have to be some communications. I believe Todd G was there from BZ also. They organizers said they’d had that as a plan for years. I saw that some said they were told it was canceled on the blog topics too Philip. I wonder if they were really told by the police or if it was rumors circulating among the attendees. Some will blame the police because it’s the thing to do. Either way – it stands to reason there would be a lot of confusion trying to move that many people to safely and the focus would be on safety first. It seems to me they made the perfect decision but I’m still curious to hear from TK

      1. A few months back, I Facebook friended Taunton NWS and in a post this morning, as I recall, it briefly detailed how they were working with the many celebrations going on in Boston and I’m pretty sure they were working with leaders of the Pops concert last night.

        I’m trying to look back, but Facebook seems slow going back to earlier posts, so I gave up. 🙂

        1. really – that is more than interesting. It would make sense that the city used the NWS.

          I don’t know how deep those overpasses are but I’m not sure I’d want to stand in one if a storm really ramped up – or if there were any lightning in the area for that matter. Maybe I am a coward 🙂

          2. Vicki, IIRC that Storrow Drive tunnel has/had a history of flooding. It may have been fixed in recent years though…not sure. ❓

            1. You are right and I didn’t even consider that – it has a huge history of flooding. I think it flooded in the very recent past. The problem is I’m not sure there is anywhere else in that area. The Common garage is a hike.

  51. Another question from the queen of questions ❓

    I worked with a professor from Harvard years ago who was a renowned expert on ferroresonance. I was talking to him about heat lightning – have no recollection of how we got on the topic – but he said it doesn’t exist and that lightning in any form is dangerous and people use heat lightning as a term for non-threatening lightning.

    I noticed some at the southie park where two were struck by lightening said they didn’t know there was a storm in the area but had been seeing “heat” lightening for a while.

    The professor was NOT a meteorologist so I don’t know if he was correct. Does anyone?

  52. Hi all!
    Recovering from a long day in Boston! What a great day though. More on that soon!

    Update coming in a while!

    I will also read all comments and write replies sometime this afternoon. 🙂

  53. Ok, updating the blog now, and under the entry will be a comment regarding my day in Boston yesterday the storms as well. Hoping to have it all posted by 5PM. Sorry it took so long. Been cleaning and washing all that we used yesterday (tarps, laundry, cooler, etc.). Going to Hampton Beach for the day tomorrow so have to be ready again. 🙂

    Stand by for an update…

Comments are closed.