Tuesday October 29 2024 Forecast (7:05AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

High pressure provides fair and cool weather for our region today, but after some morning low clouds break up, you’ll notice clouds increasing as a warm front approaches from the west. These clouds thicken up this evening and a period of rain is probable in much of the region, but favoring the northern half for most coverage. However, this will be a brief event, maybe a little helpful in fighting the ongoing fires in the region, but no help in slowing down the building abnormally dry / moderate drought conditions. Behind the warm front we’ll experience a windy Wednesday as the warmer air flows into the region, and this will be with us Thursday, even a bit warmer and still quite breezy. Activities for Halloween evening look like they will take place with rain-free, breezy, and mild conditions (temps falling from the 70s to the 60s). Low pressure passing to our north will drag a cold front through the region during the early hours of Friday, bringing a broken band of rain showers. This system looks progressive and should be moving away Friday morning, with a return to dry weather along with breezy and cooler conditions during the day. High pressure builds in with fair, cool weather for Saturday.

TODAY: Low clouds break up and give way to sun, but sun becomes filtered to dimmed by increasing high clouds from west to east in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain likely. Lows 45-52. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 62-69 by midday, then cooling into the 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Dry, cooler weather November 3-4 with Canadian high pressure. A frontal boundary and low pressure waves bring the potential for some rainfall at times in the November 5-7 period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Overall pattern remains dry. No major temperature extremes indicated.

53 thoughts on “Tuesday October 29 2024 Forecast (7:05AM)”

    1. I drove thru the smoke on my way to and on my way back from Hampton (I-95, particularly strong near the split with 128 in the Peabody / Danvers area) last evening.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Only made it down to 34 here, I presume due to clouds over head.
    39 now. I thought for sure we’d get to 32 or lower. Nope.

    1. Had it stayed clear, you were heading for 30. The cloud blanket put a stop to that. Atmospheric inversion. Same reason the brushfire smoke is remaining near the ground.

  3. Thanks TK !

    Thickest frost on the car this morning. It took a good few minutes for the heat to warm up and then melt everything so I could safely drive off.

  5. They were doing paving and patchwork in my town the past 2 days. How stupid! All it would take is a few leaves to blow into the hot asphalt, blow into the woods, and ignite

    2. Yikes. We had a major fire last month, the 20,000+ acre “Airport Fire” in Southern California, that was ironically and unfortunately started by an equipment malfunction from a county public works crew attempting to block off-road vehicle access to dry brush areas. Well-intentioned I suppose, but heavy machinery really has no place near dry brush…

  7. Thanks TK.

    Re-posting the photo of the cloud formations taken by a friend in East Hartford yesterday AM for those who didnt see it last night. Never really seen anything like it. They were still there when I drove through later in the AM but less pronounced by then.

    https://i.postimg.cc/8kZs0jh2/image000001.jpg

    Thanks TK as well for the response on the cloud type….I would have guessed altocumulus!

  9. Not sure if anyone posted this in the last week or so but below is the Accuweather winter weather forecast for 2024-2025:

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-forecast-for-the-us-in-the-2024-25-season/1699821

    In summary:

    1. Above normal temps in SNE, slightly above central and northern New England. Warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico water temps could promote the milder air in the Eastern US.

    2. Below normal snow much of SNE, near normal interior SNE and CNE, above normal snow in the mountains of NNE.

    3. 30-40″ for Boston and 20-25″ for NYC

    4. Book ended winter with some cold blasts, lake effect snow and maybe a few winter storm chances in December

    5. Milder air, wet storms in the eastern US to start 2025.

    6. A return of the Polar Vortex in February could bring a backend surge to winter with the potential for multiple snowstorms from the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and through the Northeast.

    1. I am betting on 40″ for Boston. A friend and I usually a have an under/over bet for a lunch each year. My number is probably more like a ME number than a MA number.

    1. Mark, do you own a home weather station? If so could see my post from yesterday , October 28th at 3:25 PM. Thanks.

  12. I found it interesting that early this morning temperatures in SE MA & Cape were in the 20s while N&W in the 30s/40s.

    Topsy/Turvy to say the least.

  13. I think that BBC news articles are usually well written. I wonder what happened here:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2dp1l8wklo

    I doubt that the headline is true:
    “Mount Fuji breaks records as it remains snowless for longer than ever before”

    This sentence is really wacky:
    “Japan had its hottest joint summer on record this year with temperatures between June and August being 1.76C (35.1F) higher than an average.”

    Does anyone know what the word “joint” is doing there?
    How about temperatures “35.1F higher than an average”?

    I see where they got the 35.1. Mr. Goodrich, my high school physics teacher, warned us of making this very error 🙂

    1. Welllllll. Perhaps it was something causing the air to go wonky as they wrote the article.

      Andddd ducking now

  14. Thank you, TK.

    Low of 30 and I noticed the temps that had been dropping fairly quickly slowed as clouds appeared. Still cloudy with almost Mark type clouds to the south.

    Up to 49 now.

    1. Hi Tom. Do you own a home weather station? If so could see my post from yesterday , October 28th at 3:25 PM.

      1. Hi Longshot.

        I have never owned a home weather station, sorry I cannot help out.

        I hope you have luck finding more people who have or do and can take that survey to help provide meaningful feedback.

        Good luck !!

    1. haha !!

      I will use the heat or AC in any month. Don’t necessarily like the utility bill that follows. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  18. I am not a scientist like many of you. I like record keeping, stats, local history.

    It seems to me that many notable storms have occurred locally during these last days of October.

    “The Perfect Storm”, October 30, 1991
    Halloween Nor’easter (32″ in Peru, MA), October 29-30, 2011
    Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy, October 29, 2012
    Halloween snow, October 30, 2020
    October Nor’easter, (90+ mph gust on the Outer Cape), October 27-28, 2021

    It seems interesting that all these events happened around Halloween.

    I am sure that, if I go back in weather history, I can find a similar pattern to other dates and events. But I remember these events in recent history happening in late October.

      1. Very interesting. Thank you. Odd how that happens. I have said often that December 9 or right around it seems to be a target for storms. Even 1846 for the Donner Party

  19. Thanks TK.

    In my old stomping grounds, the city of Philadelphia has officially set a record for consecutive days (29) of no measurable rainfall, breaking the old record from 1874. If the cold front later this week fails to deliver any, and it looks like a coin flip at best, that streak could stretch to 11/5 or beyond…

  20. This story has been very quietly rocking the weather and particularly NWS community in recent days. I’m surprised it hasn’t received more coverage. What’s being proposed here is the elimination of the NWS “Center Weather Service Units” (CWSUs). My intuition and some discussions I’ve had with folks leads me to believe this will ultimately not come to pass, but as of now the CWSUs are slated to close on 4/1/25…

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2024/10/28/faa-air-traffic-control-weather-safety-risk/75900358007/

      1. The usual suspect: dollar signs. The CWSU meteorologists are NWS employees. However, their positions are primarily funded via an interagency agreement with the FAA. It’s not that the FAA “doesn’t want” the CWSU services per se, but it no longer wants to pony up that money. They’ve basically told NOAA/NWS to pick up the tab, which is an obvious non-starter in breaking with decades of precedent. And so the two sides are now at an impasse…

  21. Longshot, I do have an Ambient Weather Station. Previously had an Acurite but it kept having problems and I had to get rid of it. I can do the survey but couldn’t speak much to the purchase process as I got both from Cait as gifts. I would have to have her join me on the call. Though I’m sure she wouldn’t object if an Amazon gift card is involved. They pay us a visit 2-3 times every day…

  24. 0.01 inch of rain at Central Park NYC today. They will NOT have an October without measurable precipitation.

  25. For the first time in over 25 years, there are trees around here that have dropped leaves fully. Some trees are 2 weeks ahead of the last several autumns on leaf drop.

    The recent dryness and the early-season cool nights are the main triggers, after healthy rainfall earlier in the year.

    Trees are actually in pretty good shape overall. Stress is less of a factor than previously thought. IF our dry spell continues through winter and into 2025, then stress will be more of a factor.

      1. Not necessarily. Stats do show, however, that the top dry autumns the majority of the time have been followed by below normal snowfall for the winter. This is NOT a guarantee.

        But it is a stronger stat than snow in October means below normal snow. That is a pretty much false notion. It’s 50/50. The stats show that clearly. The two most recent significant October snowfall events are too small a sample size. If you go back, it’s 50%.

    2. Ours are ahead also. One I take a photo of every year has been fully leaf free doe a week. Last year it had maybe 80 percent color on October 28. First year in a very many that we are not well into November to lose leaves. I do think our decorative pear trees have not started to turn. But I’ll check closely in the morning

  27. Looks like .07 in marshfield, .12 at Logan and a couple .18’s on the north shore (Swampscott and near Salem, I believe)

    Hope that helps a little for the north shore brush fires.

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