Wednesday October 30 2024 Forecast (7:30AM)

40 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

A slug of rainfall moved across the region last night, associated with a passing warm front. While this rain may not have extinguished the brush fires, it certainly helped with their control, and crews should have them largely out by day’s end today in the areas they were most concentrated, particularly Essex County MA. And this is a good thing, because the wind comes up today as we enter a brief but notable warm spell, and continues Thursday, Halloween, where a few record high temps may be threatened, but I do not think beaten. We’ll contend with a lot of cloud cover today which will limit the temperature rise. While more sun will allow a warmer day Thursday, I do think this particular push of warm air and associated atmospheric set-up is not enough to push us to the notoriously warm 1946 Halloween level. This will be in sharp contrast to last Halloween however, when the high was just 50 at Boston. For towns and cities that do trick or treat on Thursday evening, expect a notable but not bothersome breeze, dry weather, and temperatures which ease back from the lower 70s to the middle 60s during the early evening. A cold front waits until Friday morning to pass through the region. While this front brings a rain shower chance, any that do occur will not be beneficial for helping with any remaining fires or aiding in our ongoing precipitation deficit. While Friday will be a mild day, the passing front will lead a cooler air mass into the region for the weekend, which will feature dry weather as high pressure builds in.

TODAY: I-95 belt eastward starts the day with low overcast, patchy fog and drizzle. Abundant clouds / limited sun. Highs 65-72. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH including some higher gusts especially South Coast and hills.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Passing clouds / in-and-out sun. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-79 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

HALLOWEEN EVENING: Partly cloudy. Temperatures 65-75, coolest South Coast, mildest inland valley areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early morning including a rain shower chance near the South Coast, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72 by midday, but turning cooler from northwest to southeast during midday and afternoon. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches lower elevations especially over ponds, swamps, and bogs. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny but patchy high clouds during the afternoon hours. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Low pressure heads from the Midwest to the Great Lakes early next week – its warm front approaching but struggling initially to move through, some cool/wet weather is a potential November 4-5. May break briefly into warmth midweek before a cold front sends it back to dry and chilly here. Will work out the details and timing as we get closer.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Large scale pattern indications are for some blocking with high pressure to our north strongest and unsettled weather held off to our south most of the time.

40 thoughts on “Wednesday October 30 2024 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Isn’t today the anniversary of that big October snow of 2011, I think.

    btw ocean was 52 then as opposed to 55 now. Read into that what you may.

    1. The ocean temp can range several degrees on any given date, so there’s not much to read into it other than there’s a 3 degree difference between 10/30/2011 and 10/30/2024. 🙂

      But yes, October 29-30. Had 5 1/2 inches here.

      At 2 a.m., Main Street in Woburn looked like a snow event in mid January. And our DPW (along with the help of the still mild pavement / cement) made it possible to have everything clear in time for our Halloween Parade, which was scheduled for the afternoon of October 30, and STILL went on as planned, with just partially wet roadways under plenty of sunshine and a cool breeze. There were NO weather-related incidents of difficulties. Shows you what proper planning and execution and lack of over-reaction can do. 🙂 My son was a sign-carrier in that parade.

    2. What a storm. I’ll go back and read the blog entries from that day in a little. It reminded me of the March 28?, 1984 storm. All we could hear at night was tree limbs cracking and slamming to the ground and loud arcing from power lines.

    1. Another well remembered storm. Thank you JJ. We went to Humarock shortly after. What a mess on the south shore. Lots of folks on here undoubtedly remember better than I.

  3. JpDave yesterday 10/29 was the 13 year anniversary of the October Nor’easter and on the same day a year later Superstorm Sandy.

  5. Thanks, TK

    53 this morning.
    My Acurite gauge was showing 0.00 this morning despite a wet car and pavement with a few small puddles.

    1. Hi Captain. Could you look at my post back on Monday (10/28) at 3:25 PM? If interested, just email me.

        1. More
          A degree of latitude, one degree north or south, is about the same distance anywhere, about 69 miles (111 kilometers). But a degree of longitude, one degree east or west, is a different distance at different points on the globe. At the equator, a degree of longitude is the same as a degree of latitude, about 69 miles (111 km). But it decreases as you move closer to the north or south pole.

          Fill in your latitude to find out how long a degree of longitude is at that distance from the equator.

          Latitude: 21 north

          Distance = 64 miles or 103 kilometers

  9. Is this new airmass now part of the Indian Summer process? I believe most areas except Boston (Logan) have already received their first frost. Even most of the Cape yesterday morning was down into the upper 20s.

    1. The term itself has kind of fallen out of popularity, but basically yes. Although a lot of old school folks say it has to be in November. If that’s the case, next Wednesday is your day…

  11. My Norway Maple is going to be leafless earlier than any year in a really long time. Many trees around here are heading that way. Reasons: I stated them yesterday in my afternoon check-in.

    Long term dry spell continues. Fires were definitely reduced with last night’s rain. It may not have been a lot, amount-wise, but it was enough to really put the “damper” on things. 🙂

    We need to remain cautious as fire danger will return to elevated levels as this dries out in the next few days…

    And it’s basically a myth that the warmer the weather the higher the fire danger. The reality is, the higher the wind and the drier the ground (a combo of those 2), the higher the fire danger. Humidity does play a roll, but a limited one. Warm air doesn’t start fires. 🙂 And here at this time of year, lightning fires would be an extreme rarity. Our fires are pretty much all careless people. They don’t fall into the category that the natural forest fires do.

    Now for something a little fun…
    Remember I tossed a trash bomb at the hype-masters posting GFS panels for reaction? Well, let’s post one here, shall we? But not for “reaction” but to validate what I say (not that I need it, I already knew it was valid).

    Here is your 12z GFS from October 19, 273 hour forecast for 21z (5PM) TODAY, October 30…

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/cKy22fWa5UQvJfkK9

    How did it do? 😉

    1. Hmm…
      Wind direction: 180 degrees of error.
      Wind speed: About 15-25 MPH off, nevermind the direction.
      Temperature (not shown there but it was forecasting upper 30s to lower 40s): About 30 degrees of error.
      Weather conditions: Not. Even. Close.

      Granted, this extreme scenario showed on only one operational run. The runs before and after for this date were generally not this bad, but the hype-masters out there slathered this all over the net and yet again it caused me a lot of question to answer and fires to put out as friends and followers on social media were messaging me to ask me if it was true. The folks of WHW know better, but unfortunately a lot of folks out there don’t, and will react to such posts – exactly what the poster wants.

      Keep this in mind as we head through autumn and toward winter.

    2. It was just modeling those snow guns going off at Sunday River…….a day late and 150 miles south.

      That’s about as good as I can do trying to defend the GFS….

    3. My pear tree is well before the last few years. But closer to what the “normal” was years ago when leaf drop was very late

  13. P.S.
    Both record high temps for Oct 31 & Nov 1 for Boston will not be broken. They’re both old records and they’ll both remain standing.

  14. Thanks TK.

    An unusual overlap of my old homes in SNE and the mid-Atlantic and my current home in SoCal…. Both areas made the SPC day 3-8 fire weather discussion:

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/

    Now that is pretty darn unusual, although for now neither area is actually highlighted under any risk categories. Also, there’s a rather amusing typo in the SoCal section, for now at least, they may correct it 🙂

  15. Special weather statement for my area

    Special Weather Statement
    for Southern Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    5:50 PM EDT Wed, Oct 30, 2024

    …ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AGAIN ON THURSDAY…

    The prolonged period of dry weather coupled with a very dry ground will continue to result in elevated fire weather concerns Thursday. Near record highs are expected with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s away from the immediate south coast. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values are expected to range between 40 to 50 percent with southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph.

    Use caution when handling and disposing of ignition sources. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

    2. Pete (on air, regarding the warmth): “If you’re going out as J Lo, I think you’ll be fine!” .. I almost fell off my chair haha

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