Thursday October 31 2024 Forecast (7:21AM)

90 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Some higher dew point air has made its way into southeastern New England ahead of a cold front, and with winds having been fairly light overnight, some areas of fog formed, dense in spots, with an otherwise mostly clear sky above. Any fog will dissipate early this morning and we’ll see plenty of sun albeit filtered by a lot of high clouds during the day today, and a fair evening for Halloween activities but increasing clouds later on. The most notable aspect of today’s weather will be the warm air in place, with high temperatures making runs at records for the date (from 1946) but probably falling short of reaching them in general. A cold front will cross the region Friday morning with lots of clouds, but any rain shower activity will be very limited, with many areas seeing nothing of any note. It will still be a mild day Friday as we have to wait for a secondary front to cross the region in the evening bringing a cooler surge of air in to start the weekend. High pressure will build in Saturday and stay in place Sunday with dry weather for the first weekend of November. After the high moves away, a warm front will approach on Monday, bringing clouds back along with a rain chance, although as seems to be the case with many of our systems during our current dry regime, that rain chance does not look too significant.

TODAY: Early fog patches dissipate. Sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-79 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

HALLOWEEN EVENING: Partly cloudy. Temperatures 65-75, coolest South Coast, mildest inland valley areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

OVENIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early morning including a rain shower chance near the South Coast, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches lower elevations especially over ponds, swamps, and bogs. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny but patchy high clouds during the afternoon hours. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: High clouds increase. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds thicken. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Low pressure passes north of our region early to mid period. Warm front struggles initially to go through with clouds, a rain/drizzle chance, and a cool start then eventually warming later November 5. A very mild November 6 with mainly dry weather and a minimal rain shower threat. A series of cold fronts knocks the temperature back down mid to late period but with mainly dry weather. More details to come.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Large scale pattern indications are for some blocking with high pressure to our north strongest and unsettled weather held off to our south most of the time.

90 thoughts on “Thursday October 31 2024 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  1. REPOST…

    October 31 weather highlights for Boston…

    These stats are not specifically for trick or treating hours but you can get an idea of what those may have been like…

    The wettest stretch came from 1989 through 1994 when 5 out of six Halloweens had measurable rainfall, including a soaking 1.54 in 1991, a lot of it falling during that evening.

    From 1955 through 1962, 5 out of 8 of those years had measurable rainfall on October 31.

    The driest long-term stretch has been in this century. We had a couple of minor measurable rainfall events in 2000 and 2001, also a few hundredths in 2009, 2012, 2013, and 2019. 2021 was a little wetter with 0.42 and all of the rest of the 21st century Halloweens have recorded dry conditions. Although very much in competition, there were 11 years in a row with no precipitation at all in Boston from 1977 through 1988.

    The two warmest Halloween readings…
    1946: 81 high
    1896: 76 high

    The two coldest Halloween readings…
    1904: 27 low
    2020: 28 low

    The most notable warm stretch…
    1945 through 1957 when the high temperatures were 61° to 81° with the exception of highs in the 50s in 1947, 1953, and 1954.

    Another notable warm stretch…
    2003 through 2009 when high temperatures ranged from 63° to 73°.

    It’s interesting to note that the 2 stretches of majority warm years were during POSITIVE phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

    Other notables….
    Seasonably cool every year from 2010 through 2018 with high temperatures 52° to 58° except 2013 when it was 63°. This was also a very dry stretch with all zeroes for rainfall except 0.02 in 2012 and 0.03 in 2013.

    Before there were really any nighttime celebrations there was a chilly stretch starting with that 27° low temperature in 1904 that lasted through 1908 when the high temperature at Boston was below 50° on all but one of those years.

    The coldest Halloween high temperature: 42° just 4 years ago in 2020. Brrr! Temperatures were in the middle 30s during that evening and there was snow on the ground in many areas due to an early-season measurable snowfall just prior. Of course that particular Halloween was very muted due to COVID.

    Boston’s high temps for the last 5 Halloweens…
    2019: 72
    2020: 42
    2021: 67
    2022: 68
    2023: 50

    My forecast high for October 31 2024 for Logan: 76.

    Reply

  10. 9:40am, Logan reporting 66F.

    Sun angle per time and date only at around 22 degrees right now and slated to hit a max of around 33 degrees at solar noon later on.

    Definitely arriving at the beginning stretch of the very weak sun strength days ………….

    Reply

  11. Halloween is the 2nd most popular holiday next to Christmas. Times have certainly changed.

    1. Christmas
    2. Halloween
    3. ????????????

    I have seen Halloween decor in the stores since the first week of August. I was in Macy’s the other day and workers were already putting up Christmas decorations.

    Reply

  12. 68 here, 72 at Airport.
    We always seem to lag behind, but catch up later in the day.
    Weird. Too many trees around here, not that it is a bad thing, just seems to affect the temperature. 🙂

    Reply

  20. Want to talk about the Patriots, if Maye is to play I think they have a chance at winning this weekend. Now I also think that if the Patriots were being coached by BB, they would be going on a winning streak between now and the Bye week as they are going up against the Titans, Bears, rams, Dolphins and colts and be right on that edge of making the playoffs later this year. Unfortunately we don’t so I think they could get 2 wins during that time frame.

    Reply

    1. BB wouldn’t have done anything with team except tear them down even more. I don’t know why so many people think he would make a difference, his last two years clearly showed that.

      Reply

      1. Remember that 8 of the games last year that where losses were within a single score. Even when the team did not do well, his side of the ball was really good. Kraft is by far the biggest problem with the team and I been saying this since 2017. The patriots defense would not have gone from top run defense last year to 22nd if Bill was still around even with the injuries.

        Reply

    1. I rarely see commercials any more but don’t recall a lot of thanksgiving. I’m watching hallmark Christmas movies daily. I really need positive shows right now.

      ..,,,She said as she just finished season three of lincoln lawyer 🙄

      Reply

  23. As of 1230 Logan is up to 79 according to MesoWest. 🙂
    1 for 80, 2 for record of 81. I think it can, I think it can, i think it can.

    Lagging behind at 75 here. Will catch up some, for sure. 🙂

    Reply

      1. They hit 78.1F as of the latest update at 12:54PM and were at 76 at 11:54. Certainly possible it spiked briefly to 79F somewhere in the 12PM hour.

        Reply

        1. Don’t even count that out. The sensor is next to a runway.

          You’ll see a lot more temperature jumps (both up and down) on the record since that last move. A few degrees difference in wind direction – wind over asphalt vs. not over asphalt – makes up to a few degrees difference over a very short span of time. And that sudden jump up in low temps? Yep. Same thing. There’s a reason why that showed up much more prominently at Logan than anywhere else in SNE. If you move a sensor next to a substance that holds heat longer ………. the rest is elementary.

          Reply

  29. The 12z operational ECMWF vs the 12z operational GFS for November 8-9. Can’t have 2 more polar opposite forecasts.

    I can pretty much guarantee you the GFS won’t be the one that verifies.

    Take note of that and grade me on it when those days come.

    Reply

    1. I haven’t had a chance to watch them much, but in listening to sports talk, they have been saying the players they brought in bring more size, but the team speed has been lessened. Clearly, Florida runs circles around them and maybe Carolina too.

      Reply

  41. Looks like an upper low sitting just off the coast of Spain is the culprit for the deadly flooding rains.

    It’s just sitting and spinning with a massive ridge sitting over France and Britain.

    Flow is off both the Atlantic and western Mediterranean Sea drawing in copious amounts of moisture.

    Reply

  42. This is hilarious!

    Steve Caporizzo, chief meteorologist on ABC10 in Albany, doing his weather forecast tonight on the 6PM news. Used to love watching him on the news growing up in that area. Glad to see he is still going strong and still has his sense of humor!

    https://vimeo.com/1025302745

    Reply

    2. They never had a shot at the record, IMO. 1946. Long live the king of warm Halloweens!

      They will not set a record on November 1 either.

      Reply

  45. Summerlike morning.

    More, more !!

    Though I will not like it, thank goodness were falling back in the morning. Its dark at 6:45am and not much lighter by 7:10am, making it very difficult to get up.

    Reply

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