Friday November 1 2024 Forecast (8:14AM)

72 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Some brief light showers moved quickly across parts of southern NH around dawn today associated with the first of 2 boundaries to move through. This first one shifts the wind but allows today to remain mild with dry weather, though lots of clouds will dominate the sky during the morning before sun returns. The more significant cool air sits behind the second boundary which will swing through this evening with a few more passing clouds. High pressure builds in for the weekend with fair, chilly early November weather, and this is the weekend that is one hour longer than usual since we do the clock-flip back to standard time at 2:00 a.m. Sunday, which becomes 1:00 a.m. Sunday. High pressure slides out of our area early next week and a warm front approaches Monday, returning clouds to the region, and eventually a rain chance, though that looks limited. It does look, at this point, that the front will make its way through here on Tuesday but it may be a slow process. We probably will have a day dominated by clouds, and slow to warm up, but also largely rain-free. Fine-tuning to come.

TODAY: Lots of clouds A.M. / Lots of sun P.M. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

TONIGHT: A few clouds – mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches lower elevations especially over ponds, swamps, and bogs. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny but patchy high clouds during the afternoon hours. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: High clouds increase. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds thicken. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 44-51. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and a chance of drizzle early in the day. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Mild with a low rain shower chance November 6 as a cold front moves into and eventually through the region. A couple secondary frontal boundaries knock the temperatures back to cooler levels with mainly dry weather for the balance of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Large scale pattern indications continues for some blocking with high pressure to our north strongest and unsettled weather held off to our south most of the time. That’s a continued dry pattern here.

72 thoughts on “Friday November 1 2024 Forecast (8:14AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK!

    59 was the morning low.

    The latest, morning commute sunrise of the year at 7:17. Beautiful pink sunrise heading into work!

    1. It was an awesome sunrise. I think I’m going to greet tomorrow’s somewhere (maybe beach).

  2. I have been following the Valencia flooding in the Spanish newspapers and on the BBC. They have been mentioning that this is a result of a DANA. Here’s an explanation from Reuters:

    Oct 30 (Reuters) – Catastrophic flash floods that have killed at least 72 people in Spain are caused by a destructive weather system in which cold and warm air meet and produce powerful rain clouds, a pattern believed to be growing more frequent due to climate change.

    The phenomenon is known locally as DANA, a Spanish acronym for high-altitude isolated depression, and unlike common storms or squalls it can form independently of polar or subtropical jet streams.

    When cold air blows over warm Mediterranean waters it causes hotter air to rise quickly and form dense, water-laden clouds that can remain over the same area for many hours, raising their destructive potential. The event sometimes provokes large hail storms and tornadoes as seen this week, meteorologists say.

    Eastern and Southern Spain are particularly susceptible to the phenomenon due to its position between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Warm, humid air masses and cold fronts meet in a region where mountains favour the formation of storm clouds and rainfall.

    1. Interesting note. A similar DANA event occurred in 1982. These events also seem to be a little more common during cold phases of the AMO (negative AMO). We’re in a positive overall phase, but the recent Atlantic Nina is a somewhat mimic of a -AMO. Correlation? Maybe.

  3. CNN is incorrectly reporting the event in Spain as being from “Storm Dana”, as in the name of the storm. No. It was a DANA event. They need to put writers who can do research on these stories. I emailed them.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    63 overnight. Did Boston break a High Minimum record for today? Even if so, it might be lost by midnight tonight. Oh well.

    Interesting that we ONLY reached 75 here yesterday away from the asphalt, concrete and jet exhaust of Logan. 🙂 🙂

    1. Logan’s “actual” high was probably 75 or 76.
      If my former coworker and state climatologist David Taylor were and pioneer MA state climatologist Robert Lautzenheiser were both alive, they’d be appalled at the current practice of sensor placement. I’m not sure if this is someone’s idea of “convenience” but what it’s doing is compromising accuracy. It’s basically somebody saying it’s ok to be kind of in the ballpark for stats. No, that’s not ok. Period.

      1. Which is pretty much what your forecast!!!

        I agree totally!!!

        I think the Boston sensors should be located in a locked gated area in the Boston Common somewhere. Even then I could see jokesters flinging water,soda etc towards the rain gauge to screw it all up!!!!

        Still, that would be better than what we have!!!

        btw, not for nothing, but I think the Norwood sensor has an issue as well.

      2. Eric F had a twitter post yesterday. There are many 77F’s, 2 78F’s and an 80F surrounding Logan at the time Logan is reporting 78F.

        1. An 80 at Taunton or Norwood, certainly Hartford, I can buy.

          I don’t think Logan’s reported high was that far off the actual temp, but it was off, in my very experienced meteorological opinion. Let me put it this way, I’ve been observing this stuff for a long, long time now, and I learned from the best in the business about how to scrutinize. I never forgot what they told me to look for. 🙂

          2. Oops. Sorry. Didn’t see this. I can’t win. I read down and miss posts and read up and miss posts. I need to get I the habit of reading all.

        2. I had shared a photo of that here also. Logan wss the lowest when I posted. He was one I spoke to about the sensor being off a while ago and did not believe it was off at that point. He and the others I spoke with said they are checked regularly . One of the Mets I spoke with noted that high temps are often said to be off, but low temps are rarely questioned.

  8. I am soooo glad that Halloween is (finally) over.

    I will be soooo glad when the 2024 Election is (finally) over.

    There is just so much overkill these days. By the time the actual day arrives, it almost becomes meaningless. You just want it to be OVER!! At least I do.

    1. Oddly that is why I start tomorrow slowly adding Christmas decorations. First, tomorrow is my younger brother’s angel day which gives it meaning. Second, I decorate a lot and I mean a lot. If I wait, I don’t have time to sit back and enjoy the decorations. I have some from the time I was an infant and others from Mac’s youth in Sweden. I love just sitting back and enjoying the memories. It is such a magical time of year

      1. When I was a kid, we started decorating about 10 days or so before Christmas then taking them down a couple days after New Years. To each his/her own. 🙂

        1. When I was very young, Santa brought the tree with the gifts. Mac too. Many moms thought that was too much for kids to take in on Christmas morning. Mac and I were married Dec 9 so put our tree up before since family would be here until Christmas. Very few had trees up then.

          I don’t believe there is a right or a wrong when it comes to decorating or celebrating. Whatever works for an individual is perfect

  11. DAVIS instruments is hosting a podcast:

    Live Podcast: Inside Twisters: Storm Chasing, Science, and Stories with NOAA’s Sean Waugh
    Wednesday, November 13 at 1:00 PM EST

    If anyone is interested, I can post the information for registration.

  12. Per Taunton Climate Page

    October Temp Departures ….

    Logan: +1.7F (starting the 21st, 4 days had +10F or higher anom)

    Hartford: +4.3F

    Providence: +0.9F

    Worcester: +4.2F

  18. I just wrote 2 posts that WordPress ate. GRRR!
    Will re-do them later. Gotta go outside and take down Halloween!

  21. Its 75F at 1,000 ft Worcester Airport, 77F at Fitchburg and Newton.

    I’m blogging on this because the temp issue for whatever reason is important to me.

    With the downsloping wind and afternoon sun and it being 75F (1,000 ft in elevation) and getting other 77F’s west of Logan, it makes sense that Logan could be 79F.

    So, take it for what it is, or is 79F today at Logan not accurate ?

    Again, not antagonizing, I promise. I just get confused with the questioning of temps and I enjoy the conversation/debate on the issue.

    1. I didn’t see TKs comment before I posted earlier and absolutely do not ever mean to antagonize. The discussion on accuracy has always be Interesting to me. It’s why I wrote to six Mets last year. Or was it the year before. Time slips away. I heard back from four Mets, three networks. The two that didn’t answer were from the same network. I was given a name at Nws Boston by three of those who did respond. This is what that individual wrote back. I mentioned JP temps differing since we had been questioning the difference. I did not given any names nor the name of this blog. The only reason I mentioned Eric earlier is because he was cited.

      The NWS reply re Logan sensor is too long to create one photo. I wrote the email in early august. He references July for a sensor check

      https://ibb.co/XVnLXSx
      https://ibb.co/D7tcRWw

      1. Most interesting. Thank you.

        I find it even more interesting that my equipment’s accuracy
        is +/- 0.5 F.

  23. We’ve seen this many times, and today was a good example. The day the temp over performs is after the first of 2 fronts go by (with the colder air behind front #2). The first one is more of a dew point / wind shift boundary. So the wind goes west, the dp goes down, and in kicks the downslope effect. And today ends up warmer behind the “cold front”. This is very notably normal here in New England (and in other parts of the country) for air masses that are not directly from the north or north northwest. If you look at the regional ob strings, you can see the temperature jumps occurred when the wind shifted and the dew point suddenly dropped. Meteorology.

    The large scale pattern in the Lower 48 reminds me of autumn / La Nina onset combo. Very typical. The temp at Boston for October was only modestly milder than the long term average. The fact that we got a warm shot of air on the final day of the month is no different than getting a warm shot (or a cool shot) on any day of any month. It’s just that date gets more scrutiny because it’s Halloween. Last year, Boston’s Halloween high was 50. Just a good example of how you pick any date and can see large varieties of weather (and temperature) on any given date. This is where our averages come from. 🙂

    Saw a post that ruffled me. “November is the new September” regarding the tropics. Really? WRONG! Having 3 areas of concern in the Atlantic on November 1 is NOT UNUSUAL. Hurricane season runs through November 30. Nothing unusual going on there. But yet another in a long string of posts for clicks. I didn’t click it when it came up on my feed, but I could see enough it to know where they were going, and then someone else asked me about it. But that isn’t going to stop me from talking about it because these things need to be recognized and corrected in terms of false info.

    Now I am off to a football game in a bit to take photographs! Woburn is going to Arlington to play the Spy Ponders this evening. They have a good team, so it’ll be a challenge for us. We destroyed Lexington (44-19) and Belmont (34-0) the last 2 weeks, but tonight’s, IMO, will not be easy.

  24. It’s possible that tonight’s low temp and Sunday’s high temp at Logan are exactly the same. 🙂

  26. I have an 11 year old grandson who is into gaming. He is good. Really good. I know he has played around with building a game. I would like to get him something along those lines doe Christmas. I womder if anyone here has recommendations. And if he should learn a computer language first

    Thank you !,

        2. Thanks SSK I think he uses a switch. And trust me I could be making that up. He just made highest level in one game he plays. Fortnite? Minecraft? I have no clue. I believe he wants to try to create a game tho.

          1. The Hospital has PlayStation but it’s being fazed out on some floors . I hear the guys talking a lot about having PlayStation at home , we were never into it at my house . Hope all well with you Vicki

            1. Thank you. His brother who does not game said he thinks he uses his computer.

              Hope all is well with you also.

  28. Over 100 brush fires burning across Connecticut now and the Hawthorne fire in Berlin is now burning for the 12th straight day. 127 acres have burned. NBC CT reporting that crews from Quebec have now arrived to help fight the fires.

  29. re: creating a game.
    I have never done that even though I have been coding since I was 19.
    I would not imagine those are done in some higher level language? but I don’t know.
    My guess would be some sort iof machine or assembler language.
    Can’t create a game if one does not know how to code it, unlesz there is so ething available at a higher level sorry just do not know.

    An easy language to start with woukd be basic but that is now old. Java scriot is at least more modern.

    best of luck to your grandson.

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