Thursday November 7 2024 Forecast (6:16AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

The next 3 days feature dry weather and a cooling trend as a west to northwest flow dominates with a couple of cold fronts passing by too. Outdoor open flames are discouraged as fire danger will remain quite high. The weather on Sunday and Veterans Day will be impacted by low pressure traveling to our north – a warm front approaching Sunday, passing through at night, followed quickly by a cold front and a return a gusty westerly breeze during Veterans Day Monday. The greatest opportunity for rain will be with the warm front on Sunday evening, with a rain shower threat into Monday morning with the cold front, but this system looks like a modest rain producer, not really doing any significant help for our expanding drought.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW up to 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by high clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Thickening clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

No changes to the outlook. Pattern dominated by westerly flow. Best shot at briefly wet weather around mid period, otherwise mostly dry, up-and-down temps averaging a little above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

“Carbon-copy” days 6-10 for days 11-15, basically. Brief unsettled weather amidst a dry, variable but overall mild temperature pattern.

55 thoughts on “Thursday November 7 2024 Forecast (6:16AM)”

  1. Rafael safely over open water now, will drift westward, and eventually weaken and dissipate over the Gulf without a US landfall.

    Still some fake-casters out there painting the gloom & doom scenario but we know not to pay attention to that. 🙂

    Reply

  3. Thanks, TK!

    So glad to hear about Mom’s improvements!

    52 with another beautiful sunrise.

    78 the high yesterday.

    A quick check on Climod 2 finds that Taunton has reached 80 degrees in November only once and that was in 1950.

    Reply

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 80 here yesterday with morning low today of 56.
    Already up to 65.

    What a Stretch of November weather.

    Reply

  13. Logan’s anomaly thru 11/6 = +8.2 F

    That is 20% of all of November

    .2 x 8.2F = 1.64F

    So, the remaining 80% of the month needs to offset 1.64F

    thus …… .8 x ? = 1.64F basically 2F below avg

    However, looks like tomorrow will be 3-5F above avg, today may be 10F or so above avg

    And I can see what looks like a warm Veteran’s Day, so, however many days of the month will remain to have a chance at being below avg, I think they are going to have to be 3F or more degrees below avg as a whole to offset this crazy, warm start.

    Reply

  19. Hi WHW folks.
    I will bring this up one final time, to thank everybody for keeping the blog to weather during the last several days. I very much appreciate the effort made by all to abide by this, and you know my reasoning for it. While we stray off topic often with every day life, sports, funny non-weather stories, etc., there are certain topics which I think are just best avoided and left to other places if you wish to discuss / debate. At least our technology, maybe to excess, allows us plenty of opportunities to do that if we wish. But anyway, thank you!

    Weatherwise…
    No changes to my blog forecast upon a quick glance of afternoon guidance. As you know, I’m not keen on the GFS’s recent frequent tendency to over-amp and over-block the pattern. Today this leads to interesting looking simulations including significant snow in the vicinity. But again, simulations are just that, and if they are being made by a system that is deficient and under-performing, your results are going to be questionable, at best. So today’s 12z GFS is basically garbage, and has not really any ensemble support. My DAYS 11-15 outlook stands unchanged.

    Reply

    1. P.S. Rafael .. same deal. Hurricane, open water, drifts west, then south, weakens, and is buried and destroyed the the large scale pattern over the coming days. Some of the moisture that comes from the system may find its way into the southern US.

      Reply

  20. I try to avoid being too critical, but in this great upgrade NWS is trying to do, I think they need to work on their wording of zone forecasts. They often do not match their great discussions.

    In Boston’s discussion they talk about the disappointing rainfall upcoming, and talk about showery Sunday night and early Monday. In the zone forecast for Sunday night and Monday, both periods just say “rain”, which implies a rainy night and a rainy day. One can infer a forecast of steady beneficial rain there, and it’s just not likely to be the case.

    I’d like to see them put more time into well-worded forecasts, that explain the expected weather, rather than just a one-word summary. IMO, they can do much better. I am composing an email to them with these thoughts.

    Reply

  24. Thanks TK.

    We’ve been working through a major Santa Ana wind event here in SoCal. I’m sure most of you have seen the destruction caused by the “Mountain Fire” in Camarillo, CA. That’s an area I know well, very near the NWS Oxnard office. They actually had to evacuate that office, primarily due to smoke impacts.

    Historically, the area where most houses burned, “Camarillo Heights”, is largely immune from fire activity as it’s pretty much surrounded by agricultural land to its north and west and urban development to its south and east. The area beyond the ag land to the north of it in the Santa Susana Mountains, however, burns frequently (last time being the “Maria Fire” in 2019). Unfortunately the winds yesterday were so strong that embers were able to spot 2-3+ miles away and set the Camarillo hills ablaze. Very sad – many homes lost, and while they are “nice” homes, they are not “rich people homes” – Camarillo is very much a blue collar and agricultural town. Going to be a long recovery there.

    Reply

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