82 thoughts on “Summertime!”

1. My forecast scenario for July 4 was only partially right. I forecast the morning activity pretty well, and the isolated pop up stuff that came in between that threat and the main threat with the cold front.

   What did not pan out was a squall line from the west diving southeastward and staying south of Boston. The focus became on southward-moving storms as a short wave (bundle of energy) moved across the region just in advance of the cold front.

   We know these evening storms were nasty as they were in VT/NH and trimmed themselves down to one main storm entering northeastern MA. There was some weak mesocyclonic rotation with this storm and a brief rain-free base, but the cell never strengthened enough to become tornadic. This is the cell that the Esplanade was evacuated for. I had been watching for over an hour lightning to the N and eventually NE from an original part of the cell that weakened. As the remains of this cell produced flashes further NE to E we finally could see cloud-to-ground (CG) bolts from the remaining strong cell. As this was approaching, the decision was made to suspend the concert and evacuate people. They did not make it mandatory, but suggested it.

   It rapidly became evident to me that not only was the core of the storm going to remain a couple miles N-NE of the Esplanade, but it was also rapidly weakening. We did get some nice bolts within a few miles that we could hear thunder from, but suddenly these quit, like someone hit a switch.

   My only concern at that point was whether or not a new cell would fire up on the flanking line or the outflow boundary. At first this did not happen. In fact we never even really felt any outflow wind from that storm where we were. It just “disappeared”.

   Based on this very localized ‘blanket nowcast” I decided to stay put instead of evacuate. We never had a drop of rain from that cell nor any lightning within 3 miles.

   But finally, the outflow boundary did fire up a new cell, as noted on the previous set of comments, and this couple-mile-wide downpour tracked right across the Esplanade. We were ready for it though, having extra tarps and a plan to put everything in trash bags in the event of any kind of rain. We did this, and sacrificed ourselves, sitting on the tarp and getting soaked while we watched the first few minutes of the fireworks. By the end of the show, the cell was gone and the stars were coming out. It was awesome in its own way. And being dressed for summer, getting soaked, and walking a couple miles to Back Bay Station after the fireworks were over and we packed up was not really that tough to take. Back packs and a rolling cooler are always a plus! And walking in sandals that are comfortable and can get wet also helped!

   This is the 2nd time in a row that a 4th of July falling on a Wednesday gave rain for the fireworks. 😛

   On a more serious note, that cell did produce one flash of lightning (I saw it behind the buildings behind us, right after the display ended). It was this bolt that struck the people by the park. Just minutes later, the cell dissipated as it moved SE over the water.

2. Thanks TK. I am glad you are safe. I have not heard a report on the two young men struck and pray they will recover. I am happy there were not more casualties as clearly there could have been. Great tidbit that this is second Wed where there have been storms. Enjoy your day tomorrow and thank you

3. NOTE: Though I did not mention it in this forecast, there is some chance that the front coming through Saturday night is a little slower (I have been worried about this all along) and means that Sunday ends up a little less bright than I have forecast now. There is a chance that part of the forecast gets tweaked at some point. Staying the brighter route for now.

   1. Oh great. I just moved our cookout with my husbands 95 yr old aunt to Sunday.

      Just kidding. I’ll take rain and less humid to HHH It will be cooler and less humid Sunday ……….right 😉

      1. If that front hangs up enough to keep us mostly cloudy with a shower threat, it may not be too dry on Sunday, humidity-wise.

         1. Hmmmm well I suspect living in the Rochester NY area most of her 95 years humidity doesn’t matter much. Thanks TK. It’ll be special no matter the weather 😀

4. I know this is not weather related but if you have a facebook account like the sea shepherd conservation society face book page. south korea is now going to hunt whales. this just makes me angry and they are so called one of the smarter countries. along with japan.

   1. Matt. I’m sorry for what our generation is doing to the planet you are inheriting. I’m encouraged that your generation understands it is wrong. I read your comment to my husband and he just groaned.

      1. not saying anything about the generation in the usa but in japan and south korea.

5. Hello and since the weather is so quiet I will bring up that thank the good lord that ratheon is not going to Texas, Texas is offering free land to any comp any size and will build roads and whatever cost to get them there, thank god ratheon denyed for now, but this is one thing that kills here, if u want to build then u need to build or do something for the community or do road improvements, Texas don’t want nothing from u 🙂

   1. How do you compete with that? We need to open our minds and be willingly to change our ways of thinking now or we will be wondering where our grand kids will be working 🙂

      1. well that is what happens when you have people like bush 😛

         1. The point is Texas will take Boston’s jobs right under our noses if our minds don’t change, we will be all working in Texas, change our ways of thinking or we all will be working in Texas, Ik most of you will not change your way of thinking hence most likley your kids and grand kids will be southerners, keep up the smart thinking 🙂

      2. texas is heavily republican

6. Courtesy of Taunton NWS climate data…….(June 2012 temp departures)

   Logan : -0.9F
   Hartford : o.oF
   Worcester : -0.1F
   Providence : -1.5F

   Thru June 19th, most of these anomalies were several degrees below avg. I’d have to say that summer actually arrived with astronomical summer on June 20th.

   Just looking at Logan since June 20th, high temps have featured….

   3 days in the 70s, 8 days in the 80s and 5 days in the 90 or higher range.

   Since June 28th, (8 day streak), Logan has had a high of 80F or greater. Based on the current trends and forecasts, it will be interesting to see how long before Boston sees a high temp < 80F.

   1. Am I correct that June is the first below normal month of the year. I’ve always thought June was a very special month :).

      As always Tom thank you for the great data.

      1. Oops should have Asked if you REALLY meant June 18.

      2. Thanks Vicki…..guess I can’t get away from middle school math curriculum even in summer. A big thread is data analysis (mean, median, mode, etc). 🙂

         Yes, it is the first below avg month tempwise at Logan since…..last June…..

         1. Since june 2011. Or did I misunderstand ?

            1. Yes, since June 2011.

               1. Oh wow. Guess it proves that June is THE month of special happenings.

                  Just kidding. That is amazing.

      3. this happened last year as well. June was one of the two months i believe that were below.

7. Thanks TK.

8. If you have vacation next week it looks great with nice temps and humidity that will be in check.

   1. Can we save some until the last two weeks of august please. We had earl and Irene the past two years those weeks Shhhhh don’t tell my family. I still thought it was exciting

      1. make that until 2 week of september

9. Tom I am dissapounted in your FB page you just liked:) JK but as a teacher I am surprised you liked that page:)

   1. Hi Hadi.

      LOL !! I’m middle of the road politics. I Vote both Democrat and Republican. I Proudly voted Obama in 2008….but I’m not so sure this year. May leave Presidential ballot absent. But yes, I do prefer Scott Brown for US Senate. Voted for him last time and he has my vote again.

      1. 🙂 I am left winger at heart!! Should be an interesting 5 months for sure. I will tell you neither of them can fix anything right now with congress the way it is so unless something changes there Obama is the best option. Anyway back to weather, next weeks looks really terrific!!

         1. voting Obama this year I do not want romney in office. He will care about the businesses/richer class and possibly raise taxes just on the poor and middle class.

            1. and keep men in afgan

            2. Well very interesting. I grew up in a staunch republican house. Tom we should talk about some of the wool brown had pulled. I may still vote for him but he’s full of it more often than I’d like. Romney for Matt’s reasons may not get my vote. I voted for him for gov. Matt you contine to impress me for your awareness. Good for you. Hadi I agree

               1. I think my folks voted for both parties, so maybe that’s had some influence on me. I think what drives me crazy about both parties is that they are only capable of thinking that one solution fits all…and I don’t think the Country wants that. It’s very split and it’s too bad that a middle solution can’t be arrived at that puts the strengths of both parties ideas into place and matches up those strengths to the regions that they fit well with. But, as long as it is a liberal or conservative approach, I don’t think the country will attain its maximum potential/happiness.

                  1. My mom was one of the go-to people in the state for the republican candidates from senator to governor to town representatives so I was weened on the republican party ideals. It isn’t the same party it was then.

                     I absolutely agree that we have to stop believing that one side has all of the answers. I thought Brown also believed that but in doing research I find he’s been more than deceptive in at least three major areas. I am not impressed with Warren either and also expected to be.

         2. It will be a very interesting 5 months….very tight election…with a handful of states deciding it all.

10. John. I have fasting bloodwork at 9:00 am tomorrow so will be leaving here early. If I can’t get on here I wish you the happiest of birthdays and a very special cruise. I will miss seeing you here but know it’s for a great reason. Happy trails!!!!

    1. Happy Birthday John and good luck Vicki !

       1. Thanks Tom 🙂

11. More data, courtesy of Taunton NWS :

    Monthly overall temp avgs (Logan)

    June 12 : 66.8F. May 12 : 60.3F. April 12 : 53.1F. March 12: 46.7F

    February 12 : 37.4F. January 12 : 34.2F.

    Jan anomoly was +5.2F and June was -0.9F. So, if it’s an avg year….Jan would have an avg of 29F and June an avg of 67.7F for an avg 6 month range of 38.7F, while so far this year, the actual range has been 32.6F.

    1. I tried to read this before bed last night but couldn’t focus and figured I’d do better in the morning. Silly me. Soooooo Jan was further above normal than June was below. June was nearly on target meaning……………….what does that mean? We are seeing a warming trend. I’m not using any terms related to this since it’s one year only.

       I wonder how the trends would graph over the past 10 or 20 years. My guess is they’d be inconsistent.

       Thanks Tom – I have no idea if I interpreted your data correctly but it’s fun to try.

       1. This year, to me, it’s felt like the seasons have sort of blended into one another without as much contrast…….So I was curious as to what this year’s overall range to date had been vs. the norm. With winter way above normal and the first month of summer below normal tempwise, the change from winter to summer hasn’t been as great this year. On a few different occasions this year over a several week period, I found myself thinking, we’re having the exact same weather over and over.

          You are correct, nothing to conclude from only 1 yr and I’m sure there would be a lot of variability over the past 10 to 20 yrs.

          1. Great points and exactly how it has seemed to me Tom – thanks so much for taking the time to put the data together.

12. Happy birthday John!!

    1. Have fun in Bermuda, don’t forget to get some rum cakes and a few rum swizzles!

13. I thought I saw BB moving the Sat high temp to 95. Is this correct or was it the extra glass of cabernet I had?

    1. hahahahaha – Ch 7 has it in the 90s.

14. Happy Birthday and a fun and exciting trip, John!!!!!

15. its going to be sunny and hot I am helping out a family friend do yard work. I should have looked at the forcast before I said yes 😛
    Also happy birthday John and have fun at bermuda. looks like its going to be really good weather

16. Thanks everybody for the birthday and trip wellwishes, all very kind. Good luck vicki. Wont be able to post as phone would be way to expensive. Leaving at 10 am. Will check back.

    1. Enjoy John !

17. Have a blast John. I bet the boat has wifi that you can use.

18. Happy Birthday John and have a wonderful trip!!!
    One thing we know for sure tomorrow it is going to be a hot day which is the easy part of the forecast. The hard part is determining how strong the thunderstorms will get. This is like the winter when trying to figure out the snow rain line or what track will a coastal storm take. The ingredients are there for thunderstorms but the atmosphere maybe capped not allowing for them to form. Storm Prediction Center still has us in slight risk for severe weather tomorrow and will see when they give there update just after 1:30 pm if that changes.
    Right now I am going with a level 2 thunderstorm day thinking there will be some locally severe storms but this is subject to change. What comes when the front passes is a great stretch of summer weather with nice temps and comfortable levels of humidity.

    1. JJ is this your first 2 for quite a while? Or am I just forgetting

19. Thanks guys. In the car now, not driving. Talk to you friday.

    1. Enjoy!!!!

20. This is the first two in about two weeks. Two weeks ago Friday all the severe weather moved through CT. I did issue a 4 back in June when there was a tornado watch for the Berkshires since there was a threat of tornadoes. This is subject to change but most of the daylight hours on Saturday should be fine. Its Saturday night that some of these nasty storms could pop. As I said earlier I would be very interested to see what the storm prediction center says when they update their day 2 outlook just after 1:30pm. Currently all of SNE is in the slight risk area for severe weather with biggest threats being heavy rain, lightning, and strong wind gusts.

21. Uh oh…..Logan stuck at 77F. I’ve jinxed them from last night with the 8 day in a row streak of 80F high temps.

    1. Meanwhile…Portland, ME and Portsmouth, NH….with the same light southeast wind…..are reporting 80F…..hmmmmmmm……

22. On board. Its hot.

23. Got a very refreshing sea breeze here, which is also helping to dim the sun a bit. Next week is looking very nice. Both the GFS and EURO still are hinting at some HHH weather next weekend.

    1. bring it on

24. Once this front comes through with the showers and storms late tomorrow and tomorrow night I think a lot of people will be happy with comfortable temps and low humidity. Storm Prediction Center still has us in the slight risk area for severe weather tomorrow. Thunderstorm Index at a 2 since there is the threat of severe weather. This may need to change but I don’t see a 4 coming from this front since thankfully the atmosphere is not setup for tornadic thunderstorms. I think heavy rain, vivid lightning, and strong wind gusts are the big threats.

25. At a wedding on the Cape this weekend, outside ceremony tomorrow at 5pm. What are the chances we get storms out here at that time??

    1. Feeling optimistic. I don’t think the Cape sees anything except a shower or thunderstorm overnight Saturday night and possibly some showers Sunday morning.

       1. Thanks TK, I’ll tell the bride and groom u said everything should be ok! 🙂

          1. I really hope it works out. I can’t say the threat of storms is nonexistent but I am still quite optimistic at the moment even though most activity will likely be south of the Mass Pike from 5PM on.

26. http://mattsouzaweather.wordpress.com/

27. Here’s some July climate data thru July 6th for Chicago, IL (courtesy of NWS climate data)

    The high temps have been….. 91, 98, 96, 102, 103, 103
    The low temps have been…… 68, 71, 77, 79, 79, 82

    The current monthly departure is + 13.8 F

    1. Chicago’s latitude is just south of 42 N and is nearly identical to Plymouth, MA. Thank you, in some combination….Hudson Bay, Atlantic Ocean and the eastern third of Canada for holding those upper level heat ridges to our west.

       1. Oh ewwwww. In the city to me is even hotter than same temps outside of city. Thanks tom

28. Sorry I haven’t been on for awhile. Didn’t want to spoil everyone’s holiday. We have had a tough week. Our cat was ill and this morning we lost her. As some of you know, we never had the fortune of having a child. But she was like a child to us. Yes, I know – an animal is not the same as a child. But she meant very much to us.

    Weather-wise, hoping we don’t get any severe weather later on. And I hope everyone has had a great holiday.

    1. Sorry to hear Rainshine. I knew my wife’s dog for the last 8 yrs of his life and it’s true…….they become one of the family and the loss is very difficult….Now a bunch of years have passed and I smile now when I see a dog on the beach chasing birds or getting hit by a wave while swimming in the water, as we brought him to the beach a lot in autumn and spring.

       1. Thank you, Tom.

    2. Hi rainshine. I am so very sorry. We have always had animals and they are like your children. I was afraid something was wrong when I didn’t see you here. Speaking for me please don’t hesitate to come talk when something is wrong. We are friends here and would be honored to support you

       Heartfelt hugs to both you and your husband.

       1. Thank you Vicki. I did glance occasionally at what was going on here and everyone was so happy and excited and going different places. I just didn’t want to talk about something sad. Anyway, I do feel that we are all friends – and someday – I really wish I could meet you and everyone else! I think it’s been about 2 yrs., I don’t know. Anyway, thanks again.

    3. sorry to here that rainshine. How old was he or she.

       1. Thanks, matt. She was 15 yrs. old. She wasn’t young – but to us she was still a kitten. We got her at a shelter 15 yrs. ago, so I know we gave her a good life.

          1. That’s how old my wife’s dog was too and she also got him from a shelter.

    4. I’m sorry to hear about your cat. I know people always say they are not like children and that may be somewhat true but in many ways they are, especially when you have not had any children. My brother’s dogs have always been his children. It’s hard to lose them. I hope you have many good memories of your cat to remember her by.

29. We’re getting some sun this morning in Marshfield and it is getting very warm quickly. I don’t know where the best dynamics will be and how that intensifying area of storms near Buffalo that looks like its headed for NY and NJ will affect things, but the heat/humidity ingredient in southeast Mass is being cranked up quickly this morning.

    1. Also, this, in what is, in my opinion, a very strange summer of weather……is an odd looking cold front. It’s not one of those classic looking cold fronts that sweeps in from the west, going thru the Northern Plains, then the Eastern Great Lakes and then New England. Instead, it just literally seems like the collapsing and westward movement of the big heat ridge is bringing New England back into the ring of fire before it gets suppressed to our south.

30. Forecast is updated. Knocked temps down a little for today due to more cloudcover. We may have to wait about a week to finally get truly hot again. Until then, if you are not a fan of the heat, enjoy! Tomorrow and much of next week look very comfortable!

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