Friday November 8 2024 Forecast (7:25AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Dry, cooler weather will be with us today and into the extended weekend, but we won’t get through the entire weekend with an unsettled interruption. First, high pressure provides plenty of sun and dry air today. A cold front passes with no fanfare other than a gusty breeze this evening, setting us back to seasonably chilly levels for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday’s sky will be blue with passing fair weather clouds popping up, while Sunday’s will feature an increase in high to middle clouds west to east. This will be as the next trough and frontal system approaches from the west, but like many of its predecessors, it is not likely to produce significant rain, which we need to quell ongoing high fire danger and expanding drought. I just expect a period of rain Sunday night and an additional rain shower early Monday (Veterans Day), with dry air arriving quickly enough so that outdoor ceremonies for the holiday won’t likely be rained on. In fact, Monday looks fairly mild, albeit breezy, as the fair weather returns. High pressure builds in with fair, dry weather for Tuesday as the pattern goes on.

TODAY: Sunshine. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35 southern NH and central MA, 35-42 Boston area to South Coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by high clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Thickening clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

There’s been a lot of difference between two major medium range models of late, and I don’t often mention models by name on my discussion, but here I will. GFS (US model) has had a tendency to over-amplify and over-block the pattern beyond 5 days recently, while the ECMWF (European model) has done a better overall job with the pattern, even if missing some details. We see this again on the most recent runs with the GFS hinting toward a more amplified northern stream creating a slower-moving storm to impact our region late next week. Run-to-run variation has been significant, with little ensemble support (many runs of the same model with minor adjustments). This indicates to me that the guidance is struggling with the pattern. The ECMWF paints a picture of “more of the same”. While the most recent run does indicate a “stronger” system there, it doesn’t slow it down, and doesn’t consolidate it in such a way to deliver beneficial precipitation to our region. Granted, this is still far enough away that many solutions are technically “on the table”, but given recent performance and the current / ongoing pattern, I remain with the same outlook of a brief unsettled interruption around the middle of this period and otherwise mainly dry weather and variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Still nothing that screams big pattern change to me – more of the same.

33 thoughts on “Friday November 8 2024 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    42 this morning here.

    Pete mentioned that we could be headed for a period of more storminess.
    interesting.

    I guess we’ll find out.

    So, is Winter over before it starts?
    I am feeling nothing but doom and gloom for any kind of real Winter here this year.

    byw, when are our snow predictions due?

    1. See my DAYS 6-10 for why I don’t agree with “more storminess”.
      It just keeps showing up on GFS op runs and not happening.

      “When in drought, leave it out.”

      I’d rather be wrong about a pattern change once.

      The GFS ensembles still don’t really agree, nor does the European model.

      As far as winter: Keeping in mind the uncertainty of seasonal forecasting, winter is never over before it starts.

      1. Re: Winter Forecast
        I understand. Look at last Winter. What were the forecasts? For Boston, something like 40-50 inches?? What did we get? 12? Even so, I do NOT have positive vibes for what ever that is worth. 🙂

        Re: more storminess
        I was just posting what Pete said on air last night.

  4. 51 here, but still destined to be an above average day temperature wise. 🙂

    btw. that big GFS storm has gone bye-bye. Still some indications of something down the road. GFS cannot be trusted!!
    But will continue to watch.

  7. Thanks Tk . 84 here now but humidity feels like it’s 94 . Yesterday was miserable all afternoon with tropical downpours & thunder . Hoping the next 4 days is sun filled .

    1. It’s a somewhat unsettled pattern. I don’t have as much confidence forecasting for the tropics …. I do feel like Saturday shows less shower chances for punta canha, but Sunday could be a repeat of yesterday.

      Good luck, at least it’s a deep summer like feel.

        1. good news on today’s weather and that sounds like a blast tomorrow.

          Love boat excursions anywhere warm, enjoy !!

    2. Remember about a week ago we were looking ahead and it was the 8th I was worried about for the more widespread showers, and they ended up being a day earlier than that…

  8. Thanks, TK!

    The second quarter started today here at school.
    Report cards go out next week for Q1. Crazy how quickly time is flying!

    TK, did Tanner football make the MIAA playoffs this fall?

  10. Thanks TK

    I know patterns do continue but they have to break at some point. Hoping this pattern breaks soon. Interesting if you think about it. We have had glorious weather and many are wishing for a change in order to see more preciptation. Kind of nice really that we can still hope for something rather spectacular to end for the better good.

    1. I agree with the point he’s making, except he forgot Hurricane Sandy where there was a snowstorm and maybe even blizzard warnings on its west side in parts of the Appalachia.

      But I get the big picture idea of tropical and winter weather in the same geographical area.

      1. I think you are right about his point. But great catch. My focus wss more on his tag or intro line. Doesn’t matter where you turn, we are seeing once in a lifetime weather. A couple of our other local Mets have said the same for a while.

    3. I’m rooting for it! It can’t stay dry forever. Only time before some system or 2 will throw a monkey wrench into this pattern.

  16. While it wasn’t beneficial, that cold front was more productive than I expected.

    I was in North Attleboro at a football game and we got a sprinkle there at game’s end, and I encountered periodic showers on the way home and arrived back to quiet wet roads.

    Certainly not enough to fully quell brush/leaf fires, and a far cry from helping with a drought, but some showers nonetheless.

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