Saturday November 9 2024 Forecast (6:53AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

As was expected, a series of cold fronts has knocked us down our temperature staircase to a lower platform – a more seasonable chill – that will now be ours for today and tomorrow, as high pressure dominates today and slides off to our east tomorrow. The front that moved through last night was not as “dry” as I had forecast. While not widespread, there were some ground-wetting rain showers with it, but not enough to do anything for the drought or quell many of the brush fires burning in the region. The former will continue to build, and the latter will continue to burn with only human intervention available – an effort thwarted by a gusty wind during today. Finally, the wind leaves us later today as the center of high pressure crosses. This sets up a cold night tonight. Clouds fan into the region and thicken up Sunday as a warm front approaches. Low pressure passes to our north Sunday night and early Monday with a period of rain with the warm front’s passage, and some rain showers with a cold front trailing the low early Monday. This should clear out in time for most of the outdoor Veterans Day parades and ceremonies scheduled for Monday, and while it will be breezy, it looks fairly mild that day. A secondary cold front will deliver cooler air and dry weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH, but gradually diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear followed by high clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Thickening clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Potential low pressure impacts with rain chances around November 14 & 18, but neither look like they can produce soaking beneficial rainfall here. Overall pattern remains dry with temperatures variable but near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

First hints on some reliable guidance of a shift toward a more blocked pattern at high latitudes, which would potentially lead to a shot of colder air arriving during this period of time, but still looks like a fairly dry pattern overall.

53 thoughts on “Saturday November 9 2024 Forecast (6:53AM)”

  3. `Good morning and thank you TK

    42 this morning and we did get one of those brief showers
    here last evening.

  4. Thank you TK!

    I feel as though there has not been a day in the last 2 weeks where I have not smelled smoke. With the exception of onshore winds, it never seems to matter what the wind direction is … the smell of smoke is still there.

    1. We have had a couple of brush fires but I have yet to smell smoke from them. I did smell smoke a week ish ago. It worried me as we have lots if surrounding woods. Turned out to be an outdoor fire pit.

  7. Joshua and I chat via email occasionally. I mentioned to him that several here have asked for him. He did tell me to let you know that all is well and that he is no longer doing any social media or participating in blogging.

    2. Give him my best! I understand and respect whatever decision he makes with his use of communication. He’s always welcomed back here if he should reconsider the blogging aspect.

  8. I have started formulating my Winter Forecast 2024-2025. I have a “wicked busy” calendar this coming week but my aim is to have it out as close to mid month as possible.

    I am going to format it very similarly to previous outlooks. Not sure if it’ll be as long-winded as last year’s, but we’ll see how it goes. 🙂

      1. I posted about this a couple weeks ago and totally forgot what I said… HA HA HA … I’m also running on “migraine brain” right now. I got a mini-cluster migraine attack yesterday with one on each side of my brain 2 hours apart, so I’m a bit fuzzed out.

        I’d like to keep it basically major cities that fit in or on the border of the WHW forecast area. Boston & Worcester in MA, Providence in RI, Hartford in CT (about the western limit of the area), and Concord in NH (about the northern limit of the area).

        I thought of trimming it to just Boston, but I think it is fun to do the others so we can compare / contrast the amounts based on the type of overall winter we have.

        I was originally going to ask for a Nov 15 deadline, but since it wasn’t brought up again until 6 days before that, let’s just say “end of November”. If it snows measurably at any or all of these prediction sites before then, the advantage it would give anybody would be nearly negligible.

        I’ll re-post it a few times…

        Snow contest will be
        Boston MA
        Worcester MA
        Providence RI
        Hartford CT
        Concord NH

        We’ll give the predictions in the same order for sake of ease of collection and keeping track.

        Snowfall amounts in INCHES and TENTHS..

        Example: 24.6 inches … since snowfall is measured in tenths of inches (out to one decimal place). It is rainfall / melted that is measured out to hundreths (two decimal places) but we don’t need to do that.

        If, for example, you want to forecast 24 and three quarter inches (24.75), just round up to 24.8, so we’re consistent on 1 decimal place. If you want a round number prediction, then it ends with a 0 (example, 24.0).

        Easy enough!

        I’ll create a tab (or modify an older tab) to house the predictions and another for the winter forecast.

        2. March 20 sounds good to me. TK do you want me to keep track or is someone else interested ?

          I did copy this post and can put it on the page you create. Not sure if it can be pinned to the top or if you want to place it there in order to pin

            1. Perfect. I have the table all set up. It helps me to better learn apples number app. That way I don’t have to go onto my computer for excel. I’m not sure why I even have a computer since I never use it.

    2. I am going to do reverse psychology this year and try to be the lowest totals on that chart. Perhaps that will conjure up the snow gods…

    1. Impressive! That said, I’ll bet if we check that satellite imagery in 48 hours, most of that (outside of the Rockies) will be gone.

  14. So sorry that Joshua will no longer be posting here. He was a great contributor to WHW, especially during COVID in 2020 sharing his articles and thoughts about weather in general. He will be missed. My hope is that he keeps in touch via Vicki occasionally.

    Best of luck Joshua! 🙂

    2. Yeah, I read somewhere that the operational GFS was having a lot of trouble resolving the pattern (and resultant weather) beyond a few days. 😉

  17. Still sitting at 46.38″ on my rain gauge for 2024 which is still tracking above normal for the year, amazingly. Of course, that number has been largely unchanged since Labor Day. Very fortunate we had all the rain that we did here in CT over the summer.

  18. Friday morning’s temps were colder than forecast.
    Friday night’s weather was (slightly) wetter than forecast.
    Saturday morning’s temps were milder than forecast.

    Today’s highs are right in the ballpark of expectation.
    One outta four… 🙂

  19. I am in Bedford and see what looks like low hanging clouds to the east. It also looks like a fog bank but is this smoke from brush fires perhaps?

    1. You would be looking at one of the many brush fires in the area, of course fueled by excessive dry ground / brush / leaves, dew points below 30, and a gusty breeze.

      Fire danger will be high much of the time for the next couple weeks. There are no lengthy spells of rain in sight.

      1. Will climatology (transition to winter) help reduce fires even if beneficial rains still don’t come?

        1. Yes. Every day there is less fuel available. 1) Some has burned. 2) The trees don’t have an endless supply, nor does the ground.

          Eventually we’ll get beneficial rain (or snow) in regards to shutting down the main fire danger, even if we remain in drought through the winter.

          New England droughts are far different than their cousins of the West. They can be serious, but they are not that long-lasting. We’ve still yet to come close to matching the drought of the mid 1960s.

  20. We had very heavy tropical downpours earlier this evening but it’s since moved on . This resort is all tile so it’s incredibly dangerous when the floors get wet . Today was 3 hours out on a boat where we went to different areas & jumped off the boat & down the boat waterside. Today absolutely was the best day of fun . The wedding on the beach last night was warm but fun , two full more days of fun left .

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