Monday November 11 2024 Forecast (7:19AM)

68 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Low pressure passes to our north today. Last night, its warm front delivered some rain – enough to wet the ground but not to but a dent in the drought. While a cold front sweeps through this morning, its early-day timing and a clearing trend, drying air, and west wind means a mild daytime for today. It won’t be until a secondary cold front moves through our area from northwest to southeast early Tuesday that a genuinely colder air mass will arrive. While that front moves through without any precipitation, its notable wind shift, gusty wind, and very dry air incoming will push the fire danger right back up across our region again during the day Tuesday. Fortunately, the wind portion of this won’t last too long, and while we remain dry it will be more tranquil and quite chilly as high pressure builds in Wednesday, allowing fire fighting crews to again gain more control on the many brush / leaf fires burning in the region due to ongoing drought. Going through this week, we’re going to see the evolution of a large scale blocking pattern, driven by a developing negative NAO (high pressure north / low pressure south in the North Atlantic). This will drive the next low pressure area southwest of our region on Thursday when we’ll just have some clouds, but continued dry weather. By Friday, high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east – a larger ocean storm – will drive a cool north wind at us, and we’ll have to keep an eye on some retrogression of that low for tossing a lobe or two of moisture back toward the coast, but right now it appears the wet weather will stay offshore in favor of dry, chilly weather here to end the week.

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Cloudy start with rain showers ending west to east, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Minor precipitation threats are limited to mainly disturbances in a northwesterly air flow with an otherwise mainly dry, variable but mostly seasonable pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Not going for bigger changes, only more of the same, but will monitor trends in medium range guidance for additional blocking to take place. Leaning dry, near to below normal temperatures.

68 thoughts on “Monday November 11 2024 Forecast (7:19AM)”

    1. Combine one of the sunniest autumns on record, current currents, and a +AMO, and there you have it.

      1. Interesting comment, TK. Not sure if I can word this question in a way that makes sense.

        What influences the oceans temp more…weather in specific areas such as northeast, southeast, etc or is it determined by the vastness. In other words, does central or southeast weather have any influence on temps off of our coast?

        1. The answer is very complex, because many things do. #1 is just the season (sun angle with respect to time of year). Always has been, always will be #1. Ocean currents next, which themselves are complex and driven mainly also be our orientation in space and of course season to season variation. When you go down from there you’ll add things like long term climate variation as a large driver, but less than the 2 largest, and then you have to look at more regional influences for regions of ocean temps, and then more locally (bays vs. open water, etc).

          If there was an influence from continental weather on ocean temps, it comes somewhere in the last of vast “other factors” that fit under the biggest few.

          I hope that helps. 🙂

    1. Nate and I are heading down to Woburn’s parade and ceremony in a while. Always scheduled for the 11th hour of the 11th day at Woburn Common (lead in by a parade of about 1 mile along Main Street, which comes from the south in even years and the north in odd years).

    1. An hour later and up to 62. 8 to go. I don’t know if it makes it. We shall see as the sun angle gets a little higher.

  14. 12:15 PM and 64 here. That is the equivalent to 1:15 PM DST.
    Does NOT look like 70 is in the cards. 🙂

    TK had forecast: Highs 61-68

    So that looks to be right on target.

  15. For your Christmas movie watch list. Operation Christmas Drop on Netflix is excellent. Please be sure to watch through to the very end through all credits.

  17. 70 at both Norwood and Taunton right now.

    I also had 61-68 for the range on my blog this morning, but mentioned in the summary that a few spots could make a run at 70.

    1. The typical warm spots. 🙂
      They often make those 7-degree ranges hard to completely verify…

        1. Funny thing is I almost went with that, and said “nah” …….. shoulda said “yah” … Oh well!

  20. Off topic but not political.

    Anyone use Valvoline oil change?
    I am here for an oil change and they said my battery needed to be replaced at $229.
    I said no.
    wondering if it’s a scam????

    2. Did they physically perform a test of the battery? I have my mechanic test mine when I know it’s getting toward the end of “expected lifetime”, so I know it can be done. But how honest are they being? Perhaps requesting them to perform the test in front of you and showing the results? But probably not a bad idea to say “no” for now. Maybe have a local mechanic give it a look? Somebody who has a good reputation. We have a Valvoline about 1 mile from me here and I’ve heard a lot of complaints from the locals and many say they won’t go back there… Contrary to that, I’ve heard other positive stories. So perhaps it’s just an issue with that one in particular. So I’d just ask them to show you the battery test (though that may be a moot point if you already said no).

      1. All the chains places like that can be hit and miss. I use Valvoline when I just need an oil change and don’t have a lot of time. On the flip side, I will never ever ever ever EVER bring my car to Midas for anything ever again.

        I have a local mechanic I usually bring it to for an oil change or when I want anything else done or checked.

          1. I had an experience with another one of those muffler shops. I needed a new muffler, but they tried to sell me new shock absorbers that I just had replaced a few weeks prior. It disgusts me that “some” of these shops try to rip off the customer!

        3. Exactly. And I have definitely heard more “bad” about Midas than anything else.

          Thankfully over my driving years I have had 3 great local mechanics.

          Ironically the 2nd one was the assistant of the first one, but then opened his own place, but they recently closed for a hiatus before relocation, so I went to one my brother used for a long time and he’s been my go-to for the last year or so.

          I don’t need much with my Honda, but very dependable for oil change / regular maintenance, etc.

      3. They were futzing with the battery, but I couldn’t see exactly what they were doing and then they presented me with a handheld display showing how “bad” the battery was.

        Maybe so, Maybe not. I just ordered a battery tester and I will find out for myself. If it’s bad it’s bad, at least I will feel better about it.

        Really appreciate the feed back.

        Many thanks

    1. We had a very gusty breeze blowing through Woburn Common during our Veterans Day parade & ceremony, but the mildness of the air made it very tolerable. But yup, windy for sure!

    1. With that system hardly anything yet, the global guidance won’t handle it well.

      Odds favor a TD / TS that forms and moves west into Mexico.

    1. Wondering where are you leaning in terms of the ENSO and PDO impact? Im thinking weak La-Nina or cool neutral. I have a feeling that QBO is gonna be killer

    1. If you use a gas grill, unless your grill is next to a pile of leaves of tall dry brush, you’ll be fine – just use caution.

      Using a charcoal grill is less desirable because embers can blow out of the grill and travel a distance to dry ground.

      I’ve smelled outdoor grilling around here a few times recently, so there are people doing it, but I’d like to think they are doing it smartly.

  26. I have not been able to reach anyone at thr fire station to see if i can use my small propane fire pit. It does not spark but it has been windy so I probably wouldn’t use it anyway.

    My SIL cooked steaks on their for us for a Mac’s angel day (uxbridge). It is on their deck

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