Tuesday November 12 2024 Forecast (7:15AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

A little more confident we evolve a blocking pattern, driven by the emergence of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. But don’t let that fool you into thinking that we’re about to break the drought and/or we’re about to start snowing. It’s mid November, the ocean waters are still relatively warm (running above normal) and the orientation of feature as the block evolves actually is a dry set-up for New England. First though, a windy Tuesday as cooler air continues to flow into the region, and fire danger remains high, with easy spread of existing fires and any new fires too. Avoid outdoor open flames! High pressure builds over the region and tonight the wind drops off and it gets quite cold, and this leads to a chilly but more tranquil Wednesday. The first real evidence of the developing block will be a low pressure system that medium range guidance once had giving our region a swath of rain Thursday, which will dive southeast and miss the region – just some clouds here. This system will aid in the development of a large ocean storm which will do a little retrograding Thursday night through Friday, throwing its shield of clouds back into New England. If its precipitation shield expands this far back, it will likely be light and patchy, so that will be of little help with the ongoing dryness, and increased wind will aid in the ability of any remaining fires to be hard to contain and put out. It looks like the ocean storm will begin a slow drift back to the east by early in the weekend, but we’ll likely remain it the brisk northerly air flow on its back side, with dry and cool weather here.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A few showers of rain and/or mixed rain/snow possible. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible evening. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Large scale blocking pattern with our region in a general northerly air flow with dry weather and near to below normal temperatures during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Continued leaning toward a dry pattern with variable temperatures averaging fairly close to normal.

46 thoughts on “Tuesday November 12 2024 Forecast (7:15AM)”

    1. Thanks Tom. I see there is hope for here. 2 of the 3 moved us from our new normal of 0.1 to a whopping 0.2.

        1. Yep, I guess I kind of “glossed” over that. My BAD!!!
          Sorry.

          FRIDAY: Cloudy. A few showers of rain and/or mixed rain/snow possible. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

          I want MORE than that. yeah, I know it is still early.

          I have a very bad feeling about this Winter. Very BAD!!

  7. Unless by midnight, the temps are 2-4F below the average low for the day, then today will probably end up a couple degrees above average because it was still mild at midnight.
    More example, I believe Logan was either 57F or 58F at midnight and the average high is 54F, I believe.

    2. The season may have had the quiet phase in August thru early Sept, but since mid Sept and Helene, its been one right after the other.

  10. Thanks TK. What a dry pattern and some of those wildfire video from earlier this week certainly doesn’t resemble NE in Nov!

    Winter musings: slightly above average temps doesn’t mean terrible snow. Just might come only in batches, ie 1-2 larger systems.

    1. As long as it doesn’t mean rain or warm temps melting snow as soon as we get it. Sadly at this point, I’ll take more snow no matter how we get it.

    2. Well that is some tease. I guess he is at least expecting enough snow for up North. 🙂 Doesn’t mean anything for SNE.

  17. Could Boston (Logan) see its first frost (32F) tonight? If so, I believe it might be just about on schedule.

    Isn’t November 9th the average?

  18. Thanks Tk . Quite the shock leaving Logan at 4pm this afternoon compared to Punta Cana where it was very warm boarding the plane at noontime. It rained a lot the 6 days there but we made the most of it , looking forward to sleeping In tomorrow & back to the grind on Thursday.

  20. Gotta love how the ECMWF continue to get upgrade and always seem to be ahead of the GFS, mainly because of lack of funding for the scientific fields in the USA

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