Wednesday November 13 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Large scale blocking, driven by high pressure in the North Atlantic, will be the major player in our somewhat different but still dry weather pattern during the next several days. Surface high pressure builds in today and lingers Thursday as the next approaching low gets shunted far to our southwest. The energy from that system will be absorbed by a large ocean storm to our east which will do some retrograding, enough to throw some of its cloud shield into our region Friday into Saturday, but not likely enough to throw any of its precipitation this far west. The system will the pull away later in the weekend, and we’ll be in a dry, cool weather regime. Fire danger remains and will remain high throughout this period, especially during times when winds are stronger. Some splash can occur Friday into the weekend in eastern coastal areas, due to the offshore storm.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

The large scale pattern will feature blocking continuing but some readjustment of the features gives us a more westerly flow next week. Minor disturbances bring nothing more than minor passing rain shower threats, otherwise generally dry weather will prevail.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Hints of a little more troughing in the Northeast, but not really in a way that turns our pattern too wet or stormy, more like chilly and slightly less settled.

63 thoughts on “Wednesday November 13 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)”

    1. It’s under the other stuff too – full circulation. It’s just partially exposed lower level circulation visible on the north side of the system.

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  5. I went looking for Marshfield’s low temp (37F) but what really caught my eye was the current barometric pressures.

    > 1033 mb or around 30.50 inches of mercury. Impressive.

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  6. I didn’t appreciate that with the EURO upgrade, its 00z and 12z would go out to 360 hrs.

    Seemingly what the 00z did on pivotal weather.

    If so, nice !!!!

    Well, assuming its going to be something worthwhile looking at for trends.

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  14. Following the big snows of 2015, we got into a long term drought, but I don’t recall anywhere near the same brush fire events like it is now. Am I just remembering wrong?

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    1. There was some considerable danger back in maybe late 1990s. Someone might recall the year. One fire on the Holliston/hopkinton line. Came very close to the barn where our horses were boarded. We had to move all horse to the enclosed riding ring and tranq them.

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  15. Its a long way’s out, but I feel there is a bit of a signal in the long range, say the week of Thanksgiving, that a piece of early season arctic cold may try to cross the pole and be sent into at least Canada, if not even into part of the US.

    Lets see if that moves forward in time the next 7-10 days.

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    1. I definitely think, in general, we’re actually going to have a few days this winter, where the high is below 15F and a couple to a few nights, where Logan is 0F or slightly below.

      Basing that off La Nina and for a tendency of arctic air being closer by and sometimes a piece breaks off and gets sent through the northeast.

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      1. If the near Thanksgiving week cold ever happened, I’m implying 30s by day and teens/low 20s at night.

        But that would be a good 15F below average.

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    2. I am running a “turkey trot 5k” here in hingham – my first participatory 5k (never ran before june of this year. always fun to pick up something new as you get older.) So I haven’t been looking forward to the rushing cold that I’ve been seeing in the models.

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      1. According to a friend who is a regular there, the “average” opening is around November 3. But it can vary up to 5 weeks or more.

        With a dry, sunny autumn, even when they’ve been able to make snow it’s not conducive to keeping it around yet.

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        1. Nov. 3 sounds about right. Hopefully with the cold nights this week, they should be able to get the North Ridge area enough coverage to open this weekend but they haven’t committed to that yet.

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  18. The FD gave me the ok on using my propane fire pit on the deck. Yay. Although on days like yesterday, I would not have used it

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  19. An extended period of below normal temperatures for the western US, northern Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico regions in the coming days will help cool down the gulf waters soon. The party’s about over. Won’t come soon enough for the potential / likely tropical system. Some outfits are already talking about that as if it’s a hurricane, which is bad practice. Call it what it is. We HAVE TO stick to that. I don’t think media often realize how important it is to stick to the FACTS.

    CPC continues to over-forecast mild weather for New England in the 6-10 & 8-14 day ranges. Not that it’s going to be persistently cooler than normal either for the entire period, but much closer to normal than their very warm bias forecasts show. Major warm bias for CPC – often forecast too many areas above normal and then change it at the last min, or don’t change it and it just doesn’t verify.

    A reminder that before we have a really developed system, guidance is not going to handle it well. We see that on today’s guidance – many different solutions. The large scale pattern has a huge impact on any potential tropical cyclone, no matter how well developed it is. And also, just having a warm gulf doesn’t guarantee anything. Remember Rafael? Sat over the gulf for days and …. weakened … then dissipated … why? Because you can have all the warm water in the world and it means nothing at all if the rest of the conditions don’t line up. 🙂

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  20. re: My car battery

    Interesting. I got my tester and tested the battery.
    The positive terminal was heavily corroded. Cleaned it up some and tested. Battery tested low.
    I started the car and the charging was excellent. ran for a bit
    and retested. Now battery tested medium. Hmmm

    But with the corrosion and it almost Winter, I decided to err on the side of caution and made an appointment with the dealer to replace it. I have a feeling that proper cleaning of the terminal and a good drive to charge the battery would have taken care of it. But I need that car and don’t want any surprises on a cold Winter’s morning.

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  21. Well no sooner do I make my comments above and Killington just announced they are opening for the season tomorrow. Guess the last 48 hours of snowmaking on the North Ridge did the trick!

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      1. Sunday River also announced they are opening tomorrow. Technically they were first to open as they opened for one day on Halloween but that snow quickly melted and they havent been operating since.

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        1. These areas should be able to sustain their snow better now.

          Yes here in SNE we do mild up closer to 60 for highs around Sunday and/or Monday, but we’re not going back to 70s to 80. Blocking pattern says NO. We do stay dry, so they’ll need to take advantage of snowmaking temps when they can because Ma Nature is not going to be in the most snow giving mood in the next little while for the mountains, just because of the dry pattern, not because of warmth.

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  22. A few notes – the GFS is a struggle bus, but it had period in late August through September where it out performed the ECMWF in SNE from Day 4 plus. It did a better job hinting at the transitions to dry. The ECMWF seasonal adjustments kicked in late September and its been quite good since. Its low res control run has been a go to for me recently. Both models ensembles have been reasonable. The GFS MOS remains good on high / low temperatures in the short range to early mid range. Check it out, if you can find MOS output.

    That said, we are now headed into that meteorological fall to winter transition, plus an ECMWF upgrade. Watch out for those two combining to create some run to run forecast swings. Trust your ensemble means for a little while .

    This ECMWF upgrade is a good one, and it should help to produce some better forecasts, but it will take some mild adjustments to get it right, and introducing it at season transition was not the preference of Operations, but the Executive level wanted to roll, once ready.

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    2. Always nice to see you here.

      At least two of our local Mets said the same about the GFS a while ago. If I recall it wss thst it sniffed out systems early I posted here but no idea what day so didn’t look. That you for confirming I wasn’t imagining …again 😉

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  23. TK – When you get the chance, can you respond to my question above (11:39 am) regarding the drought following the 2015 winter? Thanks.

    Reply

  25. 32F at Boston (Logan) this morning for the first time. Pretty much on schedule for this time of year.

    Even colder tonight? 🙂

    Reply

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