Saturday November 16 2024 Forecast (9:07AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Our dry spell and high fire danger roll on, but from a weather standpoint it’s quite nice for being out and about on this mid November weekend. While today there is a gusty breeze at times, the air will not be that cold, as the air mass in our region is quite modified, despite a big ocean storm to our east. As this feature moves away, and high pressure builds in, we’ll have an even nicer Sunday with less wind and above normal temperatures again. Mild weather will continue into Monday, but the wind will kick up as a trough and frontal system swing through from northwest to southeast. Other than the slight chance of a passing rain shower with this disturbance before midday Monday, the dry weather will continue early next week with a cooling trend in a northwesterly air flow. This is all part of a readjusting blocking pattern that for now continues to keep our region dry. Will that last? I’ll address it after this detailed forecast for the next 5 days…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower before noon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

The large scale pattern, while driven by blocking, is going to reconfigure itself enough to allow a large low pressure area into the Great Lakes region and some development further east of there to give us a decent shot at some rainfall on November 21, but the orientation / movement of this may mean that significant rainfall rates are only over this area for a relatively short duration. Any rain / precipitation we can get is beneficial with the ongoing / worsening drought and the frequently high fire danger. The remainder of the period features upper level low pressure hanging around and while the pattern is technically “unsettled” with some rain/mix/snow shower chances, it’s not likely to be particularly wet beyond the November 21 opportunity and maybe one more shot of rain for part of November 22.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Thanksgiving travel / holiday (November 28) / “shopping season” means that the weather here will be very important. Strongest indications are for additional blocking, but our region on the drier side yet again. Will monitor.

60 thoughts on “Saturday November 16 2024 Forecast (9:07AM)”

  6. Thanks, TK:

    We also had a non-playoff football game last night that I announced. Unfortunately, Middleborough lost to Whitman-Hanson, 14-12. This has not been the year of the Sachems. We are 2-8. We host our rival, Carver, on Thanksgiving morning. Carver is in the Division 8 Final Four for the second year in a row.

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  11. According to Jacob this morning, it’s been 995 days (and counting) since Boston has received at least 4”+ of snow (Feb. 2022). Hard to believe it could very well be 3 years.

    Btw, I am now living in Quincy at a senior independent/assisted living facility. I moved in back in late June. No longer a “Bostonian” unfortunately. I guess now I’m considered a South Shore resident along with SSK and Tom.

    I am still another year away from being eligible for Medicare. Unfortunately due to health reasons I have to retire much sooner than I wanted to. I recently signed up to receive Social Security. I start receiving my “check” in January with the actual money into my checking account in late February. Oh well.

    Now only JPD and Hadi are the only “Bostonians” left here at WHW! Too bad Joshua is no longer here on the blog. I miss his posts.

    I will still keep up with Boston climo stats, you can count on it! 🙂

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    1. While, obviously, that is probably not going to verify to exactly that, I do believe we are in for a winter featuring many more cold shots, a good amount of which may be short lived and we can only go up on snow opportunities, right ? But I do think we’ll have snow chances. La Niña is a change from El Niño. Hopefully, other teleconnections and ocean phases won’t conspire against it.

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        2. Not even close to the snow drought of the late 70s to early 90s. Trust me, it still snows, and we’ll see plenty more.

          The lack of snow is being very falsely represented by some sources, especially social media with recency bias issues. This is a fact. The statements “it doesn’t snow anymore” and “it never snows anymore” are incorrect. You can’t state that as a fact when science shows you that pattern the last 4 winters, based on indices, have not supported big winters in SNE. If you use blanket statements in media, you’re leaving out a LOT of science, and your audience is going to just buy what you say (because many of them lack critical thinking skills – a big problem in today’s society). We know better here, of course, but many out there don’t. 🙁

          I mentioned recency bias. There is also backyard bias (It’s like this here so it must be like this everywhere”). Both of them are clearly defined and frequently observed. To the latter point, 3 out of the last 4 “lean” southeastern New England winters produce near to mostly above normal snowfall in northwestern New England. This fact should not be ignored, but often is, when talking about the region. The correct way to do it is to include ALL information. The incorrect way is to leave things out.

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          1. I remember the lean years that took a tremendous toll on ski areas. 90/91 drought followed by two very interesting snow years. I remember these in part because of the photos I posted earlier. We had to get to Hopkinton where daughters pony was boarded. I think the problem now is the droughts are not occasional. They are tending to be more the norm. And then when we get snow, it warms and rains. I know Harvey’s climate discussion has been posted here before, but it is exceptional and IMO worth several views

            https://youtu.be/g0tRer8-EQE

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      2. One of our biggest snow enemies lately has been a non-cooperative MJO. There are signs that wants to do it again, but I’ll be looking at that closely as I finish up my winter outlook soon. That, btw, is when I will post my predictions for the snowfall contest.

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    2. That’s the over amp / over block error this model has been doing relentlessly since the last upgrade. This solution never verifies if it’s beyond day 6. And most importantly, no ensemble support.

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    1. But won’t her remnants put a good dent into our seemingly everlasting drought late next week, maybe into the weekend? This morning Kelly Ann (Ch. 5) thought so anyway. A good half inch or so?

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      1. Its remnants will probably never come within 500 miles of here, if we can even trace them as remnants by then.

        A half inch of rain would do virtually nothing anyway. We’re many, many inches in deficit. It’s going to take a period of weeks to eliminate the drought, and those weeks are not close at hand.

        I expect the late-week system to under-perform consensus expectation (which I am already less than in expectation).

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        1. That’s too bad. According to Kelly Ann, Sara’s remnants “was” expected to get attached to a slow moving cold front passing through our area and drag moisture up the coast for at least a couple days. Oh well, figures! 🙂

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          1. I think there can be some remnant moisture entrained into that system, but it will be so relatively little by then that it will make virtually no difference. Jury is still out on the impact that late week system has, but I’m not optimistic for a good soaking.

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  17. There was an absolutely spectacular sunset out my window! My apartment faces the west only. Back at my old home, I could get to see sunrises as well.

    Anyone else see the sunset? One of the most “ interesting” to say the least. It was the clouds that did the trick. Never seen anything like it that I can remember. 🙂

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    1. I got some shots up this way – it was very similar – knowing what kind of clouds were in the sky. Those were a result of a little bit of minor convergence between our ocean storm and the air flow coming in from the NW.

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  18. TK – If I asked this before, forgive me but will this dry fall be one of many factors in your Winter Outlook? As an obvious non met I don’t see how you can ignore it though.

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    1. No problem. Nobody is expected to remember every discussion. 🙂

      We have mentioned that there seems to be a tendency for dry autumns to be followed by lower snow / dry-ish winters. I’m definitely considering that as a factor in my winter outlook, which is partially written at this point.

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    1. I was taking some photos of low moon before it set when some distant geese flew across just above the treeline … I have yet to look at the photo I took. 🙂

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    3. Who are Donner and Blitzen?

      I love word / name origins, and both of these names are slightly different than the original Dutch labels used, but are close enough. “Donder” morphed into “Donner”, and “Donder” is a word for “Thunder”. “Blitzen” is actually pronounced and spelled differently, and this appears on one of our family Christmas albums as “Bliksen”, which is close to a Dutch word for lightning. I think the actual word ends with the letter “m” and not “n”. I’d have to look that up, but I didn’t want to do it before I gave my reply. 🙂

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  23. Everything has trended less recently so makes sense to go by that idea until we break this drought.

    TK correct me if I am wrong but have we ever seen fire danger this high well into mid November. Not that I can remember it find. I am sure my search was inadequate.

    Btw out of work again! Laid off at another tech company. Turned 50 and boy it’s not easy finding work in the tech sector. Fortunately we are ok and will be. Still traveling at least :).

    As far as snow not sure why the low though. I still believe it’s will be colder than the last few years. Last year I never pulled out a true winter coat. I am certain that won’t be the case. We also live in a part of the world that is just about nearly impossible for us to have a long term drought. So putting a bunch of factors together I think we are near to slightly above average snow and slight warmer than average.

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    1. There were some high fire danger episodes into November in previous years, but it’s not a frequent occurrence to this magnitude. I remember such events a couple of times when I was younger – burning bans, low pond levels, etc. But our main fire season is April (pre leaf-out) so those tend to be more pronounced over the longer term. To have one more serious on the back half of the year is certainly more of a rarity. But we combined an extended dry spell with one of the sunniest autumns on record and early leaf change / drop due to both dry weather and early season cool nights, and this is your result.

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