DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Dry weather continues, but there is some rain now in the 5-day forecast. First, high pressure brings fair and mild weather to the region today with lots of sun and less wind, and temperatures running above normal. A trough and cold front will cross the region Monday with some clouds and a brief window of opportunity for passing light rain showers before noon. Breezy, mild weather prevails during the day as the air behind the front is not that cold and will be balanced out by whatever solar heating takes place. It will chill off that night and be a cooler day Tuesday with dry conditions. Tuesday night winds up quite chilly with a narrow area of high pressure providing clear sky and light wind for radiational cooling. As we get into midweek, things start to change. While we still have some blocking in place, features on the larger scale will be readjusting somewhat. One of the players is a trough moving through the Upper Midwest with a sprawling low pressure area. The initial surge of the moisture from this system will dry up as it moves into the eastern US, and it will be a disturbance that contains some remnant moisture from TS Sara (far to the south in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico) that initiates another low pressure area to the south and west of New England. It is this system that gives us our best shot at widespread rainfall on Thursday. As guidance struggles in a blocking pattern, we are probably not seeing the actual outcome on current simulations, and it’s important to follow the ensembles and model trends. While I do have a wet day in the forecast for “day 5” Thursday, I am skeptical that this system will produce widespread significant amounts. A conceivable / believable scenario would bring a narrow ribbon of rain into and possible through the region with the initial arrival of the low pressure area, but in response to blocking, a new redevelopment takes place further east and possibly further south, shifting the focus of heavier precipitation to offshore of New England, leaving us with some lighter rain / drizzle after the initial arrival. If such a feature was a little further west than described above, then we’d be in the game here in southeastern New England for more beneficial rainfall. Will monitor the trends closely.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower before noon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Good chance of rain. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, possibly stronger in coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Upper level low pressure hangs about late next week. November 22 stands the greatest chance of additional rain, but it doesn’t look like all that much, probably more of a chance of a brief rain period then scattered rain showers, and getting into the November 23-24 weekend we would see just a daily chance of a few showers of rain/mix/snow with mostly dry weather. Chilly/dry northwesterly flow indicated for early Thanksgiving week (November 25-26).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The large scale pattern features some blocking transitioning more zonal with time, and mostly dry weather here. May have to watch one system passing by to the south around the Thanksgiving holiday itself (November 28) for a more extensive cloud cover and rain chance, but this is not a forecast with any kind of certainty – more a precautionary mention since it’s a holiday with a lot of travel involved.