Monday November 18 2024 Forecast (8:28AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

A cold front moves through the region this morning with no more than a passing insignificant rain shower under a deck of clouds, before it moves on and sun returns during the day. The air will remain fairly mild as the air mass behind the front is modified. Cooler air will eventually filter in tonight and Tuesday on a northwesterly air flow, keeping fire danger on the high side. A narrow area of high pressure builds in Tuesday night, which will be a chilly one, and Wednesday, which will be a fair, more tranquil day, but with filtered to dimmed sun as high clouds advance in from the west. These clouds are the forerunners of what will be a swath of rain heading our way for Thursday. This is due to a sprawling low pressure area moving into the Great Lakes, with cyclic redevelopment of low pressure eastward as the trough winds up and slowly moves east in response to some blocking high pressure to the north. This is a different configuration than we’ve seen with many systems recently, and it’s what allows the rain to reach our area Thursday. That said, I have had my concerns that this system will be limited in its ability to produce a significant amount of rain, and this will likely come to be the case. Not to say “hey it’s not going to rain!” .. it is going to rain from this thing, but modestly. The orentation of the trough and accompanying surface low means a strong occlusion and a ribbon of rain that is fairly narrow and moves through from southwest to northeast in a few hours, after which the filling low drifts eastward across our region during the following 24 hours, into Friday, with more spotty, lighter rainfall. We’ll get close to a rain/snow mix in our highest elevations to the northwest of Boston but most of the frozen stuff will stack in the mountains to the west and north of the WHW forecast area. There are still some details to work out with this forecast, so pay attention to any comments I make and of course the daily updates heading through the week!

TODAY: Lots of clouds / passing light rain showers through mid morning, then increasing sun. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain midday / afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Occasional rain showers / drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

The November 23-24 weekend will feature upper level low pressure drifting across the region and weakening, with limited rain/snow shower chances, and mostly dry, cool conditions. We have to watch for a wave of low pressure to bring clouds back and possible rain toward the middle of next week. While any rain we get is generally regarded as beneficial, any unsettled weather in the days just before Thanksgiving can result in at least minor travel troubles.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

The large scale pattern features some blocking transitioning more zonal with time, and mostly dry weather here. Depending on the timing of a disturbance, Thanksgiving Day (November 28) can at least start unsettled.

51 thoughts on “Monday November 18 2024 Forecast (8:28AM)”

  2. Thank you, TK

    So this is what 8 am looks like. And 6. And 7. Brought to you by a new puppy in the house. Haven’t seen them in a while.

    Looks as if we had something else I have not seen in a while. Rain? Or something like that Looks wet out there.

    Reply

        1. Love it. And just enough to make the chairs on the deck wet. Would have been a great morning for coffee out there. Lots of coffee

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  5. This is NOT political. It is from heather cox richardsons letter today. It is a great explanation of time and zones and their history. In case folks do not use FB, I took screen shots of her discussion and posted the links below. Hope they work and are in proper order

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02afvJf1pMBmztpYoEokk39HndT1bDFZn75aLnDQvPKKQXuRim9sTRpTB2j49BcPh2l&id=100044557238708

    https://ibb.co/SNDdfz9
    https://ibb.co/pd73P93
    https://ibb.co/v3WZfMR

    Reply

  7. Today is the day I fly out to Australia. It was fun coming here in Fall for the first time since covid. Now to head to the land down under and get to work on some seagrass mapping and restoration.

    Now to talk about the Patriots.
    This team would be talking playoffs if Bill was still the head coach. Hell I would say even if Vrabel was to be the head coach the Patriots would be with this roster and how good Maye is. Play calling and coaching inhibiting this team. Patriots offense has improved in some way, gotten worst in others. While the defense though has a few bright spots and basically the same team, has regressed down to the offense.

    Reply

    1. This coach is absolutely horrible, I mean horrible. But knowing Kraft he will keep him on board . The pats have a really good future QB in Drake . If Kraft wants to win again he better get some quality players to build this team around Drake & a solid head coach & also offensive coordinator. I think with Drake , some solid additions on both sides of the ball , improved coaching & management this team will have a solid shot at better things to come

      Reply

      1. I have my issues more with Covington as the DC, defense went from top 10 to bottom 10 in 1 year. Do I like AVP, not really but I rather him stay another year for the sake of Maye’s development. Maybe have a different person calling the plays game day as AVP has had done before.

        Reply

        1. I have to disagree with you Matt. Even if Bill was still the coach, the record would likely be the same as it is now. Bottom line, there is very little if any talent on this team, especially on the offensive side, except Drake Maye at QB.

          As for Coach Mayo, I give him a pass for this season. As I stated above, he has very little to work with talent-wise on BOTH sides of the ball. Even the greatest coaches need talented players in which the Patriots since TB-12 left lack.

          Reply

  9. Thanks TK !

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=na&band=09&length=24

    Pretty easy on satellite to see the block that the NAO chart is showing.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500wh&rh=2024111812&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500wh&rh=2024111812&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Its why the intensifying 500 mb feature is diving ESE from the central Canadian Prairies to the central Great Lakes, then will come to a slow to only slowly wobble through by next weekend.

    Reply

    1. I feel your pain. My keyboard refuses to fit my fingers that also ignore me. Double edged sword. I’d love to find a full size keyboard and a real mouse for my iPad

      Reply

  14. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th_nb&rh=2024111800&fh=294&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th_nb&rh=2024111812&fh=288&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Its different scenarios, but 1 consistent message.

    Canada may be very cold around or just after Thanksgiving.

    I don’t remember Canada being this cold all of last winter.

    I think we’re already seeing little subtle signs of cold potential this coming winter being different from the anemic last 2 winters.

    Reply

  15. TK’s forecast on Sara was on the money. Gonzo!

    I saw TV mets who commented on how Sara would play a role in the Thurs-Fri rain scenario. I also remember that a few days ago, the CMC spaghetti track practically put Sara over the Boston Common.

    Like many others, I would like to see something more significant in the way of rain but not overly encouraged.

    Reply

    1. Jot, who I have had the pleasure of meeting in person, is a chart guy, old school. He loves to demonstrate in chart form both ordinary and interesting weather, to help people better understand it. He reminds me of some of my professors in college. 🙂

      Here he’s just showing the trace of a quick pressure change with the passage of a weather system. 🙂 He recently relocated from New England to SC. 🙂

      Reply

  17. A quick look at the 12z guidance tells me I’m on the right track with my ideas of the late-week system.

    Initial burst of rain, about 4 to 6 hours for any given location, then after that just scattered activity. Maybe a brief period Friday where some steadier stuff occurs in eastern areas, but most of that development, as previously stated, will be too far east.

    So, upcoming system is helpful, but it’s minor help.

    Reply

  20. Thanks TK.

    Good to see the pattern turning at least somewhat wetter out East, it’s going to take time to erase the drought even if things start to go in a better direction, but hopefully it’s a start.

    Speaking of rain: Northern California in the next several days, my goodness. Absolutely incredible stuff. Will be by far the biggest weather story nationally and a potentially destructive storm.

    Tying that into SNE weather: while it’s not the only reason, probably the single biggest thorn in the side of cold/snow in SNE the past 2 winters has been the active Pacific jet, stormy West Coast, and constant flood of mild maritime Pacific air into the CONUS. Now, this cold season is picking up right where the last two left off. I’m not necessarily convinced that’s going to last the entire winter this go around. But, so long as the Pacific jet remains in charge, be very wary of sustained cold/snow prospects in the East. It won’t happen until/unless that changes.

    Reply

  22. These nighttime fire pictures/videos, this time from the blue hills reservation area are something to see. They just look like something from out west.

    Reply

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