Tuesday November 19 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)

69 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A dry northwesterly air flow provides fair, mild weather today with continued high fire danger. High pressure builds in tonight into Wednesday with more dry and tranquil weather. A large trough of low pressure and occluding surface low will move into the Northeast on Thursday. The set-up for this system regarding our weather still looks similar to me then previously mentioned, with the main ribbon of rain, which will be quite welcomed, moving through the region in a matter of several hours, with a more showery lighter rainfall pattern after that, with some snow mixing in at highest elevations well northwest of Boston by Friday which remains unsettled as the mature and now weakening low moves across the area. Additional low pressure development later Friday and early Saturday takes place too far east to give the entire region any additional beneficial rain, but Cape Cod can be clipped by that system. Otherwise the start of the weekend will see upper level low pressure crossing there region with a lot of clouds and a few showers of rain/mix/snow possible.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain midday / afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Occasional rain showers / drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/mix/snow showers. An additional period of steadier rain possible Cape Cod. Lows 33-40. Highs 47-54. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Fair, cool early period. Watching for some additional unsettled weather mid to late period (including Thanksgiving November 28) but no indications of a major storm during this period. This activity could also be shunted south of New England and we remain fair here.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Mostly zonal and dry pattern with up and down temperatures expected end November, then need to watch for passing low pressure and unsettled weather in the first day or two of December.

69 thoughts on “Tuesday November 19 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)”

    1. First night of 2 of parent-teacher conferences last night, which went very well.

      Knowing this, my students are taking a math test today. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Reply

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Yet another beautiful day in store for us.

    How much will it rain on Thursday???? Pete had us for about 1/2 inch or so which sounds reasonable at this point. Hopefully, we can squeeze a little more than that out of this system.

    Reply

      1. From my house. my view is quite obscured. Cannot smell the smoke. Wind is not the correct direction as Blue Hill is about 8 miles almost due South of my location.

        Thank you for asking. Will post should that change.

        Reply

  4. In a drought, we can’t be picky I suppose, but …… I hope either side of the heavier band of rain, we can get a few hours of steady mist/drizzle as well.

    Something to really dampen and sink in to the ground.

    Reply

    1. the 6Z RDPS is QUITE bullish on rain

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111906&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Euro, not so much

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111906&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      GFS, I’d take

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111900&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      ICON as well

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111900&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      I would say the models are trending upward, which would be a really good thing. Keeping my fingers crossed while I await the 12Z runs,

      Reply

      1. Yes, exactly Vicki !!

        If there was not titles or a description and one should these to me, I’d guess out west due to the Santa Ana winds or something like that.

        Reply

  13. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024111912&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024111912&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The associated 850 mb low with the midweek system, is strong enough and may have enough cold air associated with it, if there’s nearby heavy precip, might cause some brief wet snow in NYC !?!? Especially overnight.

    Especially overnight and during a brief spell of heavy precip.

    Reply

  17. This far out, it could end up being 70F …. but the current signal for Thanksgiving and the long weekend is really chilly if not downright cold.

    If a trof is in the east, could there be a wave of low pressure or storminess offshore ?????

    Reply

    2. I’m really happy my son and I got all the cords and lights done outside the last 2 days. We both worked most of the day yesterday and he finished it off today. 🙂

      Reply

  18. Good news: virtually all fires will be out by Friday.

    Not as good news: We may be drier rather than wetter into December. In other words, drought continues.

    Reply

  21. From WGC, on this date in 1986…

    Accompanied by thunder at times, heavy wet snow accumulated 3 to 10 inches across Connecticut. Many trees were toppled and power lines downed, with 210,000 losing power. Seven state armories were opened to shelter people who had lost power / heat. Restoration of utilities took several days.

    Reply

    1. Poor Monty.

      Good luck to Joe Sacco but the roster is average.

      One of the better players the last many years is on the decline (Marchand) and they aren’t quick enough to keep up with the better teams.

      Reply

    2. Even if it isn’t the coach’s fault, “it’s the coach’s fault”, since you can’t fire the team.

      They do need a shake-up. Let’s hope this is it. I do like Monty, but it just isn’t working right now. I wish him the best!

      Reply

      1. I think Jim is a good coach, but there were points where he just couldn’t get the team to the finish line. Losing to the Blue Jackets in miserable fashion last night was probably the final straw.

        Reply

  23. I think from all that I have read, something like 1/2 the world’s lakes and reservoirs have shrunk. The Quabbin Reservoir though seems to be doing quite okay. It’s water level has held up pretty well (400+ billion gallons of H2O). I remember reading that it holds a 5-year supply of water. Not sure if that’s still true. It serves 40% of MA’s population.

    Reply

    1. Interesting. That would go against the “it rains more” theory from a precipitation standpoint, but there are other forces at work of course. The land is always changing.

      Reply

  24. I found this re quabbin

    The Quabbin Reservoir remains relatively full even during droughts due to its massive size, a large protected watershed area with dense forests that slowly release rainwater into the reservoir, and the ability to divert water from the Ware River during dry periods, effectively acting as a buffer against fluctuations in precipitation; this allows the reservoir to maintain a “safe yield” of water even in drought conditions.

    Key points about Quabbin and drought resilience:

    Large capacity:
    The Quabbin Reservoir is one of the biggest man-made water supplies in the United States, holding a vast amount of water.

    Protected watershed:
    Most of the land surrounding the reservoir is forested, which helps absorb rainfall and gradually release it into the reservoir, mitigating the impact of dry spells.

    Ware River supplement:
    During droughts, water from the Ware River can be diverted into the Quabbin to maintain water levels.

    Water management practices:
    The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) actively manages water usage to ensure the Quabbin remains within a safe operating range.

    Reply

    1. Thank you for posting. I find when it comes to reservoirs, there is endless information and sometimes it’s conflicting.

      I believe when they formed the Quabbin, they purposely flooded several towns.

      Reply

      3. The story of quabbin is fascinating. And I admit to forgetting some of it but by morning will hopefully remember I want to read about it

        Reply

    2. As you can see, The Q Res was 7 percentage points lower in capacity at the end of the 2016 drought than it is now.

      Reply

  26. Thanks.

    I looked at 2015 and expected to see a solid jump given that winter’s snows, but I am not exactly seeing that.

    It’s down some now but really not much difference between where it is today and where it was at the end of 2015.

    Reply

    1. The precipitation during the 2015 snow pattern was not exceptional at all. All of those storms were very low water content snow. That’s why there was zero flooding that spring. The snow had no water in it. And it didn’t even melt. It sublimated into the atmosphere during a cold/dry March 2015. That pattern was actually part of what lead to the 2016 drought, because winter snows were far less helpful than average, despite the snowfall amounts being so high.

      Reply

      2. 100% that snow had no water content. It just slowly vanished without ever flossing. I remember it even melting and never seeing water on the ground bc it would evaporate.

        Reply

  27. Thru the 19th, Logan’s temp anomoly is +5.3F

    A little less than 40% of the month to go

    40% of 13F is 5.2F, so the temp departure the last 12 days would have to avg 13F below avg to have the month end at avg temps

    Considering the avg high at Logan is around 50F now …… just a matter how much above avg the month will end up.

    With chillier weather ahead, I’d guess in the +2.5F to 3.5F range.

    Reply

    1. Worcester and Hartford are at +7.2 and 7.3F respectively, Providence is at 4.0F

      Either Providence has an accurate sensor and everything else is wrong or the Providence sensor is too low. Its been this way for months now, 1-2F lower than other major climate reporting locations.

      Reply

      1. The sensors being used by NWS have been iffy. They have had a tendency to err 1 to 3 degrees too warm, but have not been immune to going the other direction at times. But according to NWS, within 2 degrees either side of accurate is “acceptable”. I need an arms-up-in-puzzlement emoji here. 😉

        Reply

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