Wednesday November 20 2024 Forecast (8:44AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

High pressure brings fair, tranquil weather today – a cold morning and seasonably pleasant afternoon – though you’ll see clouds begin to move in ahead of a coming low pressure trough. This has been a much-talked-about system as it offers our first real opportunity in quite some time for a widespread rainfall, which in the shortest term would be beneficial for getting multiple southern New England wildfires under control, some of which have been burning for up to a few weeks. As has been my expectation, it does appear that it will help with the fires, while not being major help for the ongoing drought. We’ll need a series of such systems over a period of weeks (rain or snow as we head into late autumn and winter) to eradicate the drought, and it remains to be seen how that will go. In the shorter term though, beneficial rain does come tomorrow, with the orientation of the occluding low pressure area sending a band of it into our region from southwest to northeast during the morning and midday hours, slowing a little as the occluding low starts a cyclonic pivot, but with enough momentum to eventually push a dry slot up from the south and cut the rain off during the evening hours. It is at that time that most of the region will have seen on the order of about 1/2 to 1 inch of welcomed rainfall – no, not a great soaking, but an ok one, enough to quell the fires anyway. What happens after that is that the old low center will wobble its way by our region from west to east, eventually spawning a new storm to our southeast, that tracks northward on the eastern side of the trough, which will still have its axis west of us later Friday. This can bring another slug of rain to a portion of the region favoring Cape Cod / eastern MA and southeastern NH (maybe far enough west to include RI) for a few hours, timing between late day Friday and early morning Saturday. To the west, only a few showers of rain and some highest-elevation snow showers can occur, but these will be minor. We’ll take any bonus rain we can get from this system, as once it exits, it’s a drying trend that takes over for the balance of the weekend and the start of next week in a chilly northwesterly air flow behind the low pressure conglomeration.

TODAY: Scattered cloud patches amidst plenty of sunshine through midday. An increase in clouds during the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds consolidate – becoming overcast. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast by midday, but tapers off toward evening south of I-90. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Patchy rain / drizzle diminishes as clouds break at times. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/mix/snow showers. An additional period of steadier rain possible eastern areas favoring Cape Cod Friday night. Lows 35-42. Highs 47-54. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

While still watching for a wave of low pressure to bring clouds and a potential rain threat around the Thanksgiving holiday (November 28) the trends have been for a bit more blocking and unsettled weather pushed south of the region with a drier, chilly northwesterly air flow in our region. Leaning in this direction but not discounting the potential mentioned.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Watching for a passing low pressure area around December 1-2 – doesn’t look like a major storm this far in advance. Dry weather is expected at the start of and at the end of period. No major extremes of temperature expected.

55 thoughts on “Wednesday November 20 2024 Forecast (8:44AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Here is the 12Z NAM for the 1st slug of rain as mentioned above

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024112012&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Not far enough out for the potential “bonus” rain.

    Then just HOW chilly is the air behind this system.
    I am not holding my breath for any kind of major chill at all.
    Just cooler than it has been, imho. We shall see.

    If it is 40s, it’s cooler but not really chilly. Now if you say high temps in the 30s, then for this time of year I would say chilly. 🙂

    Reply

      2. You’re very welcome. I never skied in the western part of our state. But have travelled there. Is it a beautiful area. I didn’t check to see how much rain they expect tomorrow but hope the snow guns do the trick until it arrives.

        Reply

  8. I saw your comment Tom on providence. While none of the Mets I talked to a couple of years ago saw any problem with the sensors, your numbers seem quite a bit off. I will write to the noaa individual who gave me an in depth answer back then. I never attribute a comment to anyone and I don’t attribute a reply to anyone without permission.

    Reply

    1. Thank you so much for thinking of us. This of course is a bittersweet day, knowing my brother is not with us, but always focusing on the happy memories and the music. That always helps on this day.

      When Dinny was living, we used to joke about his bday being my 1/2 bday and vice versa. Nov 20 / May 20. 🙂

      Also, for those who may not know, “Dinny” was his nickname, but he was called that more often than his actual name, John. He was John Anthony Jr. (my dad of course being John Anthony Sr.). But when growing up, my brother’s group of friends had about 4 or 5 “Johns” so they all got nicknames one way or another, and his ended up being Johnny Dinny Bonato Gumby, which was shortened to Dinny. 🙂

      Reply

        1. Thanks, TK!

          If I am not mistaken, various models have been advertising some thing significant, off and on, on or around November 30 for about a week or so.

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  14. Update on butternut

    Update: The East Mountain Wildfire has burned approximately 100 acres near Ski Butternut. We are currently coordinating with multiple fire departments that have been dispatched to the area to ensure that they have access to the mountain and to water sources. We can’t express enough gratitude to these dedicated professionals for all their efforts. We are continuing to run our snowmaking system to saturate the hill with water and prevent the spread of fire. As of 11 AM our staff is safe and there has been no damage to the ski area. Please note we may experience communication issues with our phones, website, online store, and/or email. Thank you everyone in this amazing community for all your support. #gbstrong

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  16. Wait until the internet mets’ start reposting today’s 12z ECMWF with a widespread 12-24″ of snow from Philadelphia to Caribou from a 36 plus hour event next Friday and Saturday.

    Reply

      1. Sure it could pan out. What do I know? There will be an eastern trough and some disturbed weather passing near by. Those are some basic ingredients.

        The ECMWF is also a model using new programming and a new software version meeting a transitional weather pattern, coming at the onset of met winter.

        The ensemble mean for the same period has about 0-1″ of snow on the ground throughout SNE except north of RT 2 and Berkshire higher elevations which shows about 1-2″ give or take.

        So let’s see what pans out. It likely won’t be today’s 12z run, but it will be something to watch and evaluate the model nuances at the start of winter.

        Reply

  17. Repost from above where it didn’t belong

    Euro for overnight 11/29 to wee hours 11/30

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024112012&fh=234&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024112012&fh=252&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Remember this is 10:1 and some of this may be sleet and/or mix or at the very least pretty wet with ratios of 4-6 to 1.
    And it is 10 days out there so CAUTION!!!

    Reply

  20. Strong smell of smoke when I left the basketball game in Lowell around 4:45pm (Lowell smoked Fisher 121-66).

    Now that I’m at work and have seen the Euro, I am not a fan. I’m heading up to Lake Placid next weekend, and driving back early Sunday to get to the Bruins Centennial Game that afternoon. The Euro scenario is NOT what I want to see.

    Reply

    2. I hope you have a good trip to Lake Placid.

      Let’s go Tech! (he-he)

      Clarkson and UML have very similar records so far. It should be a great game.

      Reply

  21. EARTHQUAKE. Did you feel it? Magnitude 2.3 earthquake near Moodus, CT at 7:33PM. They get a lot of quakes there. You can see the spike on the seismogram from the Weston Observatory.

    Reply

  23. Hello, all! I am making my annual drive southland. This time to Olive Branch, Mississippi. If a tree can grow in Brooklyn….oh, never mind lol.
    Today was exciting. The morning was spent touring the Antietam Battlefield. 50,000 lives were lost in just one day, the worst one day loss of lives in our history.
    Then we went on our way to overnight in Wytheville, VA.
    Then more excitement…..about 30 miles north of Roanoke it started to rain lightly and became torrential. Finally ended just south of Roanoke. I know we were in the mountains, hence some enhancement, but this front means business. So there is at least some hope for drought relief for you all.
    When we finally arrived in Wytheville, the clouds came back and a weather statement was issued for winds gusting to 45 mph……it was all of that. I felt it while walking the dog. Now there is a forecast of 1-3 inches of snow later tomorrow into Friday. The temperature has dropped from 67 to 41 so far.

    And, I haven’t forgotten to follow up on the idea I put out during the summer of giving TK a week off and we (some or all) give our forecasts for that week, hopefully a stormy one.
    Maybe we can get together for lunch or dinner to discuss how to do it. We should invite TK and also pay for his food….the least we can do for him.
    I plan to be back the first week of December. Let’s discuss then.
    Happy Thanksgiving to you all!

    Reply

    1. So awesome to see you here. What a spectacular start to your trip. We went to Gettysburg twice and wow…you can feel the power of those lost. Antietam was on our list too but never got there.

      I’d forgotten your suggestion but love it.

      May your travels be full of fun. Please be safe. See you in a few weeks.

      Reply

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