Thursday November 21 2024 Forecast (7:33AM)

121 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

A broad trough of low pressure moves eastward across the Northeast today into the weekend with 2 distinctive surface lows impacting our weather. Surface low number 1 matures / occludes over our region later today into Friday with the much-talked-about ribbon of rain arriving today, giving a good 1/2 inch to 1 inch (over 1 inch in some areas) before pushing to the north and allowing a slot of drier air to move up from the south early Friday. Low number 2 develops offshore south of our area and does a cyclonic loop to our east under upper level low pressure Friday night and early Saturday. This system will throw another shield of rain into eastern areas late Friday to very early Saturday. If it gets back far enough to the west some snow can be mixed in over higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. This can also be the case with some “in-between” shower activity in the lull between the two low pressure impacts. Going through Saturday we’ll end up on the back side of departing but deepening low pressure so while there’s a drying trend it’ll be breezy to windy. Generally fair/breezy/cool weather is then ours for Sunday between low pressure in Atlantic Canada and high pressure in the Great Lakes. The high slides eastward and delivers dry but more tranquil weather to us Monday, but clouds will already be advancing in ahead of an approaching low pressure area in the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle and low level smoke at first. Rain arrives southwest to northeast during the morning but tapers off toward evening south of I-90. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

TONIGHT: Patchy rain / drizzle diminishes as clouds break at times. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/mix/snow showers. An additional period of steadier rain possible Friday evening to early Saturday morning. Lows 35-42. Highs 47-54. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 44-51. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Quick-moving disturbance exits November 26 – maybe a rain/snow shower then dry, breezy, cool. Dry November 27. Watching for low pressure to bring unsettled weather Thanksgiving Day (November 28) and the day after, before fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Watching for a passing low pressure area around December 1-2. Dry weather returns after that before the next disturbance brings a rain or snow shower at the end of the period. Temperatures variable – averaging close to normal.

121 thoughts on “Thursday November 21 2024 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Yesterday’s model depiction of a snow event on 11/29 has basically gone bye-bye. Big surprise there.
    We shall see if there is a return today

    Reply

    1. Anyone check for ensemble support on the snowstorm?

      It’s so easy to get a simulated “big snowstorm” on the models as they currently are, how they simulate, and how they over-forecast parameters at certain ranges, yet as soon as you get ONE run that shows it, it’s like it’s coming, and you can’t scroll social media without warnings of a potential blockbuster.

      That’s so not what we need out there. It gives the mets a bad name – the ones who actually know how to do this correctly. Not talking about anything posted here – you folks all know, I’m talking about social media, FB, X, etc. – the wannabes who just post for reaction.Yup, might be fun for them but it creates hell for the rest of us. I’ve already received no less than 5 messages from people asking about the big snowstorm on Black Friday.

      Reply

      1. I like that we’re getting this before the showery rains, gets the ground damp and I would think helps the top layer absorb better the heavier rains to come.

        Reply

  7. Already three times the amount we’ve had for events of late. From 0.01 to 0.03. And this is just the appetizer. I like Tom’s way of thinking that it’s preparing the ground

    Reply

  10. From a post from SClarke, I was able to grab the following year-end water volume data for Quabbin over the last 10 years. It’s in ascending order and in billions of gallons.

    2016 327
    2017 351
    2024 354
    2022 356
    2015 363
    2020 365
    2019 369
    2023 383
    2021 389
    2018 412

    If you toss the low, 2016, and the high, 2018, as anomalies (yes a strong assumption), then the range for the remaining 8 years is 351 to 389 billion gallons which is about a 10% difference. Yup, it’s in billions of gallons so 10% is a lot of H2O, but really if you look at what is happening to other reservoirs and lakes, the Quabbin so far is holding up.

    I am no student of hydrology so I am sure what I am saying could be heavily criticized, but I still like what I see here better than others.

    Reply

    3. The map I saw yesterday all of MA in red. I can’t recall where I saw it and will try to find. As bad as this map is, I like it better

      Reply

    1. How confusing, this uses a different set of levels. Compare to what the Drought Monitor has:
      None
      D0 (Abnormally Dry)
      D1 (Moderate Drought)
      D2 (Severe Drought)
      D3 (Extreme Drought)
      D4 (Exceptional Drought)

      Reply

              1. Sorry. The 11 is supposed to be a joke. Every time I watch that scene from “This Is Spinal Tap”, I laugh.

                The different drought levels are when comparing either of the ones you posted (they are the same) with the Drought Monitor.

                Reply

                1. Oh my. I can be gullible at times. As I have just demonstrated. What surprises me is I didn’t figure it out since this would be in line with a Mac’s sense of humor. FWIW….i am having a great laugh at myself. Thank you. Needed that

  14. As TK wrote above, the reaction to yesterday’s 12z ECMWF was all too predictable. When Dave asked me thoughts on the validity of the output, I mentioned the recent changes to the ECMWF and season and pattern transitions that can combine to impact sensible model output. I get that is somewhat nuanced and probably should not expect many to take that into account. However, I also mentioned the 12Z EPS mean for snow in SNE was 0-1″. Yet, no one shared that map ….

    Today, I am SW Boston 95/495 suburbs. It’s pouring here! It has given me the opportunity to listen to Boston radio. One redio host said, next week, could be looking at a White Thanksgiving. Another said, updated modeling is showing 4-6″ of snow in the city of Boston for the day after Thanksgiving. So, it is not just internet weather weenies, one OP model run has permeated mainstream media.

    It is likely the op runs of the 3 major models will have variable outcomes for this time period for several more days. Whatever happens snow, rain, or dry, “those weather guys got it wrong again” will be a common refrain next weekend.

    Reply

    1. The Mets just can’t win with today’s society. Can you say MISINFORMATION?

      WOW! Insane!!!

      wonder what the 12Z runs today will say?

      Not for nothing, but there was NOT a word about how WARM the ocean is. Tough to get SNOW in Boston this time of year and especially this year, without an absolutely perfect set up.
      Read that as Ample precip with N to no more than NNE wind.
      Anything more to the East would automatically spell RAIN. 🙂

      That ocean is a full 20 degrees above freezing, Just think about that. 🙂

      Reply

  17. I am getting the feeling that IF anything were to come at us
    Near or after Thanksgiving that it will end up tracking
    North of us for a rain/showery event. 🙂 waiting on the 12Z runs.

    Reply

  18. On the forecasts that we write for our Operational clients (Cities and Towns/School Districts, etc), we go into detail for the 1st 5 days (especially for the 1st 3 days), and then have an “Extended Outlook”. We treat it as very general, and usually 6-10 days out. For last night’s Extended Outlook, I mentioned the system moving through on Tuesday, drier weather Wednesday, and then basically said this:

    “For the Thursday through Saturday period there is considerable uncertainty, as the majority of the forecasts models show the potential for a storm system, but disagree on the strength, track, and timing of the system, as well as what, if any, impact it may have on the region.”

    Related to the Quabbin discussion, the city of Brockton gets its water from Silver Lake in Pembroke, Back in the 80s, I recall a drought that was significant enough that the local paper started publishing the Silver Lake water level every day. It was just a little box (usually on the obituaries page) that just listed the lake level today (compared to normal), lake level yesterday, and lake level 1 year ago today.

    Reply

    1. Interesting that it was on the obituary page as if the whole town would die if it got low enough. Just an ODD place for that
      statistic. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Reply

          1. At least the GFS took into consideration the ocean temperature as it shows RAIN along the coast with
            850MB temps well below freezing.

            Reply

  22. All the models are showing me right now is that the pattern will be getting more active with precipitation chances. Possibly some snow, especially inland.

    Reply

    1. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024112112&fh=12&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024112112&fh=183&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024112112&fh=276&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

      Agreed.

      Link 1: Current blocking

      Links 2 and 3. After the current blocking relaxes, suggestions new blocking evolves.

      Blocking isnt everything and the only factor, but it does increases chances for either a suppressed pattern or one with a trof/closed low over the northeast. Usually thats a chilly and sometimes stormier pattern.

      Reply

  29. Butternut update

    Update: It has been raining for several hours slowing the wildfire. We are not in the clear yet, but the situation today is much better than it was the last two days. Per the Great Barrington Fire Department, “today’s rain will help to some extent, but it will not extinguish the fire. It will remain on scene for the days and weeks to come.” More than 120 professionals are still on the ground fighting this fire today.

    Yesterday we had multiple fire companies onsite working alongside our staff to create fire breaks and subdue the fire. Our Operations Staff ran snow guns the past two days to wet the perimeter of the mountain and the buildings so the fire did not spread. On Tuesday, a National Guard helicopter was making repeated water drops from our snowmaking pond to the active fire area for most of the day. Thanks to everyone’s hard work we are happy to report there have not been any injuries or damage to the property at this time.

    We cannot begin to put our gratitude into words. Thank you to the first responders, Massachusetts DCR, and our dedicated staff for all of your hard work to keep everyone safe. It has been heartwarming to see these amazing individuals band together in the face of adversity. The outpouring of support and well wishes from this remarkable community has also been incredible and we sincerely appreciate it.

    The Ski and Board Shop will remain closed to the public at this time, and we ask that only essential personnel enter the area for now. We look forward to welcoming the public back to Butternut soon.

    Reply

  34. Gee, how come nobody on social media is posting TODAY’s 00z GFS for 00z Nov 30? 😉 I mean after all, it might be dry and cool like it says. 😉

    Reply

      1. We do indeed. I’ve said before a fault ran through the paddock of a friend in Framingham. I just didn’t realize there had been five

        Reply

  39. I thought I heard Eric say that as of today’s date, it’s been 1,000 days since we had 4″of snow. (I wasn’t near the TV at that moment.)

    Can anyone confirm?

    Reply

  42. Just watched the WBZ winter forecast. Less than 30″ in Boston.

    They pointed to La Nina, Negative PDO, dry fall, and polar vortex position .

    They presented it through a skit based on Jeopardy.

    Reply

  45. I didn’t get past SClarkes 11 ….fwiw 11 is the number we associate with mac or one of the main ones

    Are those maps legitimate. I’m seeing them everywhere now

    Reply

  46. Social media is a cesspool. Comments on one drought map range from Maura healy put something in the air to i we stop manipulating weather we would not be in drought.

    Reply

  48. 1.10” of rain here in Coventry CT and still pouring with more rain pivoting in from the south. Fortunately not underperforming with this one!

    Reply

    1. 6.0″ in Lowell and a low of 5 the following morning. An early preview of what would end up the coldest December on record (and by a decent margin). Then the switched flipped on New Years Eve, and we had what was at the time the 7th warmest January on record.

      Reply

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