Friday November 22 2024 Forecast (7:14AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

A broad area of low pressure aloft and associated surface lows continue to impact our weather into the weekend. We had some beneficial rain finally, which moved in yesterday and lasted well into the night across most of the region, but we are now “dry-slotting” from the south with the axis of steadier rain now to the north and northwest. A few rain showers can pop up and move through some areas during the day today in the southerly flow we have here. This takes place as surface low pressure completes a cyclonic loop while weakening over the NY/NJ/PA area, then falls apart while moving southeastward into the waters to our south. At the same time, a new low ignites and intensifies in the waters to our southeast and between this afternoon and Saturday midday does its own cyclonic loop under the upper low to our east. But this will be enough to throw some rain showers back into eastern MA then pivoting into northern MA and southern NH (where snow can mix in over higher elevations), then come back to the south and east during Saturday morning-midday before finally exiting via Cape Cod. All the while our southerly air flow today will back to east tonight and back further to north and eventually northwest tonight and Saturday, becoming quite gusty, but also aiding in the eventual drying. Sunday’s slated to be a breezy, cool, but dry day in the northwesterly air flow between low pressure in Atlantic Canada and a narrow area of high pressure west of New England, the latter of which builds in late Sunday night and early Monday, shutting the wind down but setting up a cold morning on Monday. During the day Monday clouds will race in from the west ahead of a low pressure area moving across the Great Lakes. This will eventually limit and probably blot out the sun before it sets Monday. The low pressure area will then move fairly swiftly across our region Monday night and Tuesday. Its exact track will determine if we have a warm front / cold front passage (track just to our north) or just a swath of rain/mix (track further south). That detail is TBD.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. Chance of passing rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain eastern MA / southeastern NH. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain southern NH and northern MA, may mix with wet snow in higher elevations, then rain showers lingering in eastern MA and crossing parts of RI midday into afternoon before ending. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25+ MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 44-51. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain / rain showers (possible higher elevation mix). Lows 38-45. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Day-before-Thanksgiving (Nov 27) brings fair and cool weather good for last minute errands and travel. Watching a wave of low pressure for potential impact during Thanksgiving Day (Nov 28) and “Black Friday” (Nov 29), with a wide range of potentials but leaning toward more benign impacts from a not-too-potent system. Fair, windy, colder weather for the last day of November behind whatever low pressure system moves by the region. Active pattern sends the next low our way with a rain/snow chance to greet December, but that’s far in the future so no further details can be determined.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Potential low pressure impact (rain/snow) to start the period, and another rain/snow shower threat comes before the end of the period, though these don’t look like major systems. Overall pattern indication is chilly west to northwest flow with near to below normal temperatures.

67 thoughts on “Friday November 22 2024 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  5. Thanks, TK!

    1.11″ of rain and a temp of 47 when I left.

    Beautiful fiery, orange sunrise behind breaking clouds with a moderate shower overhead! 🙂

    Reply

  9. Thanks TK – schools around Poughkeepsie NY have a snow day today due to power outages from heavy wet snow. Quite a turn around!

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    1. Wishing the best for you and all who work hard to make the parade possible. I know how much goes into planning our small town parade. I can’t begin to imagine how much planning a parade the size of yours takes.

      Reply

  21. As is the case so often, the strength and position of some blocking is the issue for post Thanksgiving.

    There is a system just before Thanksgiving.

    The models today really bring it to a stop in the Maritimes and that is suppressing the post Thanksgiving system to our south.

    Plenty of time to see if that blocking ends up in a different location or strength which could certainly affect the post Thanksgiving possible system.

    Reply

  22. Last year’s Hometown Thanksgiving Parade in Plymouth iirc had about as good weather conditions as to be expected for this time of year.

    Unfortunately, tomorrow’s parade will likely be quite wet, at least for most of it based on the forecasts. Of all the weekends for the beneficial rains. Oh well.

    Hope everything goes smoothly tomorrow morning Sue! I’ll be watching on Ch. 5 tv! 🙂

    Reply

  26. Butternut update 9 minutes ago

    (continued) Wednesday, November 20th: Multiple fire companies respond onsite at Ski Butternut to cut fire breaks. “Snowmaking” continues.

    By Wednesday, the East Mountain wildfire had burned approximately 1100 acres. The flames were visibly moving down the hills surrounding the ski area The fire encroached from the west and came within a few hundred feet of our trails and lifts. We coordinated with multiple fire departments that were dispatched to the area to ensure that they had access to the mountain and to water sources, including snowmaking hydrants. We had multiple fire companies onsite working alongside our staff to create fire breaks and subdue the fire. Our Operations Staff ran snow guns to wet the perimeter of the mountain in order to prevent the fire from spreading. We provided tools, transportation, and support to the departments on the hill.

    By afternoon, the wind shifted, and ashes were falling on the buildings in the base area. Operations Staff came to the rescue and turned on snowmaking guns that we used to soak the buildings. This day was an intense situation, but firefighters and Operations Staff saved the area from the encroaching flames.

    Thursday, November 21st: Heavy rain slows the spread of fire.

    A well-timed rainstorm moved into the area. Heavy rain started in the early morning hours slowing the wildfire’s spread and extinguishing most of the flames. Flames were no longer visible and most smoke had cleared by midday. Per the Great Barrington Fire Department, “Today’s rain will help to some extent, but it will not extinguish the fire. It will remain on scene for the days and weeks to come.” More than 120 professionals were still on the ground fighting the fire.

    Friday, November 22nd: Rain turns to snow.

    Precipitation continues and the rain turned into the first snowfall of the year! The top of the mountain saw its first coating of snow and there were flurries in the base area. There are no longer flames or smoke visible. We hope this is the happy conclusion we prayed for, but we will remain vigilant for hot spots or possible fires that may still be burning.

    Reply

          1. The outlooks on those are pretty accurate and the index tends to progress in a fairly regular cycle .. it occasionally throws a curve but it’s kind of a slow motion one, so it’s highly unlikely it will be much different than hanging around phase 4 for Thanksgiving Weekend. That is not a “snow phase” for our area. The best phases if you want snow are 6/7/8 in Nov-Dec, 7/8/1 in Jan-Feb, and 8/1/2 in March/April.

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    2. I enjoyed his discussion. But then I enjoy them all. Just a reminder that Pete said every way from Sunday that there is absolutely no certainty in this.

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  32. 2 things I’m watching for…

    Short range guidance: Should back off on the coverage & duration of rain in eastern MA for tomorrow. Not dry, but not soaking all day either.

    Medium range guidance: Faster, flatter late next week. Low pressure wave close enough for a potentially cloudy Thanksgiving, but I think it may stay dry. This would be the storm that in a more amplified pattern would have made some of those GFS runs for Nov 29-30 look less silly. 😉

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      1. I’m not actually sold on the mild. It’s not a lock. In fact, the next 3 to 4 weeks will end up colder than normal.

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  33. It’s just a rough estimate, but I think the Canadian model has forecast about 15 to 20 inches of rain this autumn that has not occurred. 😉

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  34. Of course my sensor went down for precip so no idea what we have. But it’s been pouring on and off all night. Must be over 2 inches so far.

    Reply

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