Saturday November 23 2024 Forecast (7:44AM)

85 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

A wet start (and additional beneficial rain) to this weekend as low pressure completes a cyclonic loop to our east early today then starts to accelerate away. As this happens, dry air working in just behind it will take the solid rain shield over much of the region now and start to obliterate it as it is also moving out from northwest to southeast. This will happen in the mid to late morning. One final lobe of showers may skirt the coast from NH to Cape Cod at midday, and then as we go through the afternoon, clouds will start to break for intervals of sun, especially I-95 westward. The breeze picks up behind the departing low and it turns quite windy this afternoon and evening, and remains breeze through Sunday, which will be a day featuring a sun/cloud mix in a northwesterly air flow between low pressure east and high pressure west. As previously mentioned, this narrow high slides eastward and shuts the wind down but also drives the temperature down Sunday night, so that we have a cold but tranquil start on Monday. Timing is on track with the next system from the west, bringing clouds back later Monday. A primary low will track into southeastern Canada and a weak secondary will form over our region as the system passes by. Timing suggests the late Monday evening to midday Tuesday period of time as most likely to see wet weather, followed by drying, breezy, chilly conditions later Tuesday. High pressure brings fair, chilly weather Wednesday, favorable for day-before-Thanksgiving travel / holiday prep activities.

TODAY: Overcast and rainy start, then rain tapers off and ends from northwest to southeast mid morning on with one more rain shower possible near the eastern coastal areas, lastly Cape Cod, during midday. Breaking clouds and partial sun possible later. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 44-51. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late evening and overnight. Lows 40-47 early, then may rise slightly. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of rain showers in the morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 in the morning then steady or a slight temperature drop. wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Before guidance really has a full handle on the Thanksgiving / Black Friday “storm threat”, my meteorological thoughts point me toward a flat, fast flow that takes low pressure south of our region later Thursday to early Friday. We’ll probably see a cloudy Thanksgiving, or at least “clouding-up”, and we’ll have to watch for a period of rain and/or snow for portions of the region that night into Friday before a clearing trend follows that. The weekend itself (Sat Nov 30 & Sun Dec 1) looks mainly dry overall, though the next system may approach quickly by the end of the weekend with clouds and a precipitation threat not out of the question, which could then linger into December 2, but at “days 9 & 10”, this is more speculation than solidly confident prediction. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Unsettled potential focused toward mid period with fair weather on both ends. Temperatures near to below normal.

85 thoughts on “Saturday November 23 2024 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  1. Heaviest rain in Plymouth 8:00 to 9:30, then a taper off follows, and may be quite rapid during the parade.

    Not great weather, but could be worse too. Heading there now!

  7. Nice to get this part 2.

    We did ok on part 1. But, this additional rain may have been even more than what fell originally.

  10. According to my calculations Logan is up to 2.08 inches
    as of 8AM today. It’s now 2 hours later, so it is higher than that.
    Just what the doctor ordered!!!

  12. The 00z GFS and Euro were back on for getting some precip in here just after Thanksgiving.

    Oh, I have no hope for snow here in Marshfield, but somewhere inland, there is an opportunity.

  13. 12Z GFS is just about to launch.

    Anxiously awaiting its results. 🙂

    Always fun watching storm development or not. 🙂

    I have a feeling we get a storm, but NO snow on the coast. I don’t see how with ocean temp of 50.9. Unless we can get the wind to back to a more Northerly direction before the precipitation cuts off.

    1. Agreed.

      If it’s a wave of low pressure, it’s difficult at the coast.

      If it’s a more dynamic system at 500 and 850 mb, with some actual cool to cold air too, we can be in business.

      But it looks more like a wave of low pressure along a front.

      1. Thanks for reminding us Vicki of that fateful day (11/22/63). Yesterday I completely forgot about its significance. I don’t recall the tv news media mentioning it. They may have.

        I was still too young to have any memory as I was the same age as JFK Jr (3). I have always wondered if he had any real memory of “saluting” his father’s casket as it rolled by. I believe his sister Caroline was in elementary school so I would assume have decent memory of the funeral precession, etc.

        1. I was in junior high English class. My teacher was noticeably upset but we didn’t know why. I hear two linemen saying the president had been shot on my walk home.

          Followed of course by RFK and MLK. A dark period in out history

  27. Philip thank you for letting me know what channel the parade is on.

    Sue, it is such a great parade.

    I’m a bit behind. There is little as moving for me as echo taps.

  33. Thanks TK.

    1.54″ the event total here in Coventry. Really missed out on part 2 as we got dry slotted with the storm center moving overhead.

    Impressive snow totals up north and west. Killington reporting 12″ of new snow and up to 20″ reported in the mountains of NW NJ and NE PA outside of Scranton!

  34. Rooting for the Canadian and Euro solutions for later next week. I will be up at my mother’s in Upstate NY for Thanksgiving weekend. Would be nice to get an accumulating snowfall while we are there.

    1. I’m going to hope my idea of a quick flat wave is correct.

      My son has to drive back from NJ early on Nov 29.

  35. Despite the rainy raw morning it was a great parade in Plymouth! Tons of photos acquired by yours truly. A great time! Hands didn’t want to work for a while after that but a warm shuttle bus back, and a lunch in the car at a McD’s was good enough for me!

    Picked up a hot coffee closer to home and now I’m listening to the sounds of a neutral site football playoff game down the street from me. This is a Division 8 semifinal between Carver and West Boylston.

  36. Re: Late-week storm threat.

    Remember these key points…
    -Never focus on one model run as “this is gonna be what happens”. Check ensembles. Watch trends. Know model limits and biases. These are ultra-important!
    -MJO is not our friend early on for a snow type set-up here.
    -It’s November, not mid winter. I know folks here know that but be careful around social media for non-met “mets” acting like it’s mid winter. There’s a big difference between November & January. A real big difference.

    It will be fun to track, but honestly I’m hoping for a non-event. Son driving back from NJ early Nov 29. No delays. It’s my daughter’s bday that day and then my son and I have a massive decoration marathon to undertake with 48 hours to do it. 🙂

    2. November 23, 2024 – 04:05 pm

      Hey, Beast Fans.

      Conditions are in great shape on the mountain thanks to 12” of fresh snow that has fallen at the summit within the past 48 hours.

  40. Pretty sunset to end the day! 🙂

    Very welcome rain event as well. 2 1/2 days to be exact. Fire danger done for the season.

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