DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

It’s time for your Sunday update, and there are not going to be a lot of changes to what was said yesterday, but just some refining and fine-tuning of forecasts for days that are now one-day closer. But first, a quick look back at what was a widespread beneficial rainfall, on the order of 1.00 to 2.50 inches, with heaviest amounts in Essex and northern Middlesex Counties of MA into southern NH. While this rain doesn’t end the current drought, which is pretty solid, it does dent it, and most definitely wiped out the many fires burning as a result of the long stretch of very dry weather we had. Blocking in the atmosphere was just so that the low pressure areas associated with the storm system were able to do cyclonic loops and their associated rain bands were able to linger over the region longer than in a more progressive system. But now the weather pattern shifts back to progressive systems, so let’s take a look at how they impact us over the next 5 days. As I said – no big changes here in the thought process off yesterday. Today, we’re in a gusty northwesterly flow between our recent storm now in Atlantic Canada and high pressure across the Great Lakes. This high builds east and shuts our wind down overnight tonight into Monday, a more tranquil but chilly day. However, you’ll see clouds coming back in during the day Monday ahead of our next system – a low pressure area that will track north of New England and start to redevelop right over our area as it passes by Tuesday morning / midday. This brings a period of wet weather to the region, not nearly as prolific as our last one, but any additional rain is a good thing right now. The system scoots out and dry weather returns later Tuesday through Wednesday, favorable for pre-holiday travel and associated activities. I’m watching the next low pressure area for Thanksgiving. I’m not going to be too cranky today about how much hype has been attached to this potential system, driven by a click-hungry social media with far too many non-professionals, and even some mainstream sources pressured by higher-ups to talk something up. (Ok maybe I’m still a little cranky about it haha). I get that it’s a holiday week, but there’s a better way to handle this, in my opinion, when there is that much uncertainty left. And some of our sources have done that wonderfully. So that’s it for my inserted commentary. Back to the forecast. The Thanksgiving system to me, while still carrying “day 5 uncertainty” looks like a fast-moving, fairly flat (non-amplified) low that will toss some rain (and maybe some mix and wet snow higher elevations) into our region as early as Thanksgiving afternoon into that night. Timing and exact track obviously still need to be tweaked, so keep up with updates as to how this system will ultimately impact the holiday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH, then diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 44-51. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Good chance of rain after midnight. Lows 38-45 early, then a slight temperature rise overnight. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periodic rain or rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix evolves west to east. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33. Wind calm.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Clouding over. Rain arrives midday-afternoon, may be mixed with wet snow interior higher elevations at start. Highs 40-47. Wind calm early, then E-NE 5-15 MPH later.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

The quick movement of the late week system results in improvement for “Black Friday” (Nov 29) with breaking clouds and maybe a few rain and higher elevation snow showers, then windy and colder weather to end November on the final day of the month next Saturday. December starts having to watch what looks like a quick-moving system with a rain/snow chance December 1 and/or 2, then fair, colder weather ends this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Minor systems produce a few snow (or mix) showers in a colder pattern, otherwise mostly dry. Pacific systems should be pushed south of New England in the expected pattern, but will watch any of those “just in case”.