Sunday November 24 2024 Forecast (8:11AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

It’s time for your Sunday update, and there are not going to be a lot of changes to what was said yesterday, but just some refining and fine-tuning of forecasts for days that are now one-day closer. But first, a quick look back at what was a widespread beneficial rainfall, on the order of 1.00 to 2.50 inches, with heaviest amounts in Essex and northern Middlesex Counties of MA into southern NH. While this rain doesn’t end the current drought, which is pretty solid, it does dent it, and most definitely wiped out the many fires burning as a result of the long stretch of very dry weather we had. Blocking in the atmosphere was just so that the low pressure areas associated with the storm system were able to do cyclonic loops and their associated rain bands were able to linger over the region longer than in a more progressive system. But now the weather pattern shifts back to progressive systems, so let’s take a look at how they impact us over the next 5 days. As I said – no big changes here in the thought process off yesterday. Today, we’re in a gusty northwesterly flow between our recent storm now in Atlantic Canada and high pressure across the Great Lakes. This high builds east and shuts our wind down overnight tonight into Monday, a more tranquil but chilly day. However, you’ll see clouds coming back in during the day Monday ahead of our next system – a low pressure area that will track north of New England and start to redevelop right over our area as it passes by Tuesday morning / midday. This brings a period of wet weather to the region, not nearly as prolific as our last one, but any additional rain is a good thing right now. The system scoots out and dry weather returns later Tuesday through Wednesday, favorable for pre-holiday travel and associated activities. I’m watching the next low pressure area for Thanksgiving. I’m not going to be too cranky today about how much hype has been attached to this potential system, driven by a click-hungry social media with far too many non-professionals, and even some mainstream sources pressured by higher-ups to talk something up. (Ok maybe I’m still a little cranky about it haha). I get that it’s a holiday week, but there’s a better way to handle this, in my opinion, when there is that much uncertainty left. And some of our sources have done that wonderfully. So that’s it for my inserted commentary. Back to the forecast. The Thanksgiving system to me, while still carrying “day 5 uncertainty” looks like a fast-moving, fairly flat (non-amplified) low that will toss some rain (and maybe some mix and wet snow higher elevations) into our region as early as Thanksgiving afternoon into that night. Timing and exact track obviously still need to be tweaked, so keep up with updates as to how this system will ultimately impact the holiday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH, then diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 44-51. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Good chance of rain after midnight. Lows 38-45 early, then a slight temperature rise overnight. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periodic rain or rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix evolves west to east. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33. Wind calm.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Clouding over. Rain arrives midday-afternoon, may be mixed with wet snow interior higher elevations at start. Highs 40-47. Wind calm early, then E-NE 5-15 MPH later.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

The quick movement of the late week system results in improvement for “Black Friday” (Nov 29) with breaking clouds and maybe a few rain and higher elevation snow showers, then windy and colder weather to end November on the final day of the month next Saturday. December starts having to watch what looks like a quick-moving system with a rain/snow chance December 1 and/or 2, then fair, colder weather ends this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Minor systems produce a few snow (or mix) showers in a colder pattern, otherwise mostly dry. Pacific systems should be pushed south of New England in the expected pattern, but will watch any of those “just in case”.

55 thoughts on “Sunday November 24 2024 Forecast (8:11AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Thanksgiving system is all over the place with the models. Gfs takes it South of us for a complete miss,, while Euro is most tobust with mod rain event here and snow up north.

    We shall see. Waiting on 12z runs for latest update.

    1. As a reminder, ocean tempaerature (Boston buoy) is 50.7

      That has to be factored in.

      Even though the weather will be cooler, it would only be marginally cold enough for snow around here anyway and add the ocean temp in and foret about snow in cosstal areas. Just my opinion fwiw.

    2. I’ve been monitoring this for a bit now. Of course the first year I decide to take up running and go out of my comfort zone to sign up for a turkey trot 5k we’ll probably have cold rain. (I’d rather it snow during the run)

    1. That has news director written all over it.

      I can guarantee you nobody from the weather team would have even dreamed of writing that.

      1. That so. I immediately thought of you and your rants when
        I saw this today. Unfreakin-believable!!!!!

        What is up with these TURDS??????

        1. The business side of media is a sad and disappointing place from the standpoint of people like us, who believe in accurate and timely information, and also saying “I don’t know” when there are unknowns to figure out.

          Everything is written with a combination of absoluteness and drama … it’s like SAK likes to call it: “The Hype Train”. It probably gets annoying to hear us ranting about it so often, and I’d love to ignore it, and for the most part I ignore alot of it, but when it impacts you as a straight-shooting information giver, it’s not something you can just turn your back on. I’ve given examples of this in the amount of messges I get from people during the course of a day, the likes of this… “Hey, I heard Thanksgiving blizzard! How true is this?” etc. … 9 out of 10 times the info they heard is a completely illegitimate source (non-pro, people “playing weatherperson”, or the result of a news director following the formula (if it’s in mainstream media). Most of the meteorologists, at least in our market, do not engage in such silliness, however they still have to “please the boss” so you get some interesting wording from even them. And I get it. And it sucks. But they have to do it if they want to keep a job. This is why you will never find me doing that job. I’d stand up so hard against them they’d let me go on day 1. 😉 I’ll stick with this!

    2. I’d love to be in that position and just say NO. I don’t care if I get fired. Who would want to work with someone pushing you to write inaccurate or false information?

  7. Excerpt from the NWS discussion today:

    * Monitoring a potential storm that may impact Southern New
    England on Thanksgiving Day and/or into Fri, including the
    potential for some wintry weather. Confidence in the details
    is still low. Stay tuned!

    Why so much HYPE???????

    1. That is actually not hype.

      There is a potential storm that may impact southern New England. That impact may include some wintry weather. But that wording does not mean that everybody gets a snowstorm.

      It could be as little as what I have in my current forecast, a potential for some mix in higher elevations and otherwise benign event. But there are also other solutions on the table.

      So as far as they word this, I think they have it right in terms of description at this stage.

      We also have to keep in mind that it is the biggest travel holiday of the year. So the scrutiny is going to be above average.

      1. Well, maybe.

        It also could be a complete miss at this point. I think the chances for Wintry weather anywhere near the coast
        is virtually nill, very slim at best. Inland higher elevations is a different story.

        Will continue to monitor.

        1. I might have worded that slightly differently than they did but I also can see how it can be interpreted as more confident than it is.

  8. GFS operational run: Fast & flat.
    GDPS op run: Similar, just a big more stretched-out with a 2nd low.

    Both scenarios are an event similar to described in my blog forecast, and also my current strongest forecast leaning.

  9. One thing TK didn’t mention, and I started throwing in my forecasts this morning – the potential for a little freezing rain with the Tuesday system, mainly well north and west of Boston, since many of the models are now coming in cooler for Monday night. The ground is still fairly warm (pavement temperatures are mainly in the 40s right now), but it may be around 32 with a little rain developing north of Route 2, and especially once you get north and west of Manchester, NH. It’ll quickly get above 32 shortly after daybreak, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

  11. And no surprise here – ECMWF is further north on its track, fairly consistent with last few runs. A more solid rain event for SNE (which would be excellent) and a good snow event for the mountains.

    The solutions from the other global models are such that NNE misses out on good snow.

  14. Thanks TK.

    A transformer blew at Killington late this morning and the gondola and north ridge quad are down. People have been trapped on the north ridge quad for nearly three hours now! I just checked the north ridge quad about 15 minutes ago and the people were still sitting there motionless on the lift. They have since just taken the north ridge cam down. I am assuming there are people trapped on the gondola as well.

    1. I would assume that they have an emergency plan for this situation and have practiced it. What are the conditions there, Mark? Anyone in danger do you know?

      1. Looks wintry on the overall mountain cam:

        https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/conditions-weather/webcam/mountain-view

        It’s going to get dark soon so if they can’t get power running back to these lifts soon they are going to have to evacuate chair by chair. The north ridge quad is easier as the chairs are low to the ground and the terrain isn’t steep. The gondola would be a disaster as it is very steep and high off the ground in spots. At least the people in the gondolas are more protected from the elements as they wait.

  15. I know some believe that the flatter solutions of the GFS and ICON may be the ultimate solution, but the Euro solution is
    a PERFECT solution for this time of year. 🙂 I am rooting for the Euro solution, but will have to take whatever comes.

    BOO Patriots. It comes down to talent and coaching and the Pats have neither. Wha’t up with the penalties? Also, they couldn’t cover Drake Maye’s grandmother!!!!!!

  16. I woke up early to watch the second half of the Patriots game, I guess that was a mistake. This team is badly coached. The coaching as well as the Oline needs fixing. It was a mistake to put Covington in as DC, it should have been Bill’s son. We now know who was the real DC and it wasn’t Mayo or Convington. I see nothing that shows me that this team is going to do right by its fans and players. It starts with Kraft who I have no respect for. I am glad the NFL hall of fame has seen through his BS and has not elected him. The teams sucess with the combination of Bill and Brady, not kraft. I truly believe if Bill had this year, he would have turned this team around in time for his replacement. Instead we are the but of the joke in this league. I know some of you will say your ok with them loosing, I as a fan am ok if they are losing but not if its because of bad coaching.

    1. Be grateful that you missed the first half. It was BEYOND painful to watch. At least in the second half they scored a couple TD’s, such as they were.

      1. Although I like him as a person. I mentioned when he was chosen that I didn’t think he was the right choice. He’s trained by BB and much like him

        1. Mayo is not like BB, I wanted Vrabel if they were going to get rid of BB, would have preferred BB to stay two more years as I felt he could keep the defense in the top 5 as they get Maye in the off season but the krafts were a huge issue. I really really hope BB goes and coaches a team such as the Bucs or Jaguars and get a superbowl just to shove into Krafts face, its good that the hall of fame has seen krafts BS and has yet to let him get in

  17. Matt. Longshot. Just saw your killington discussion. I can’t find anything on the news or Twitter. Do you have any updates??

      1. Thank you. Hopefully this is accurate. I’m
        Surprised there were no tweets when I checked a bit ago. But a lot if people are moving away from Twitter

        1. The unofficialnewtworks.com has been around for 15-20 years. Sort of a blog/news site about mountain sports.

  18. CPC’s outlook is for below normal temperature for the next 4 weeks, and a return to dry pattern. I agree with this general outlook.

    1. I was hoping with the recent rains and the upcoming Thanksgiving/Black Friday event was going to signal to a totally new (wet) pattern.

      Oh well. At least the fire danger is done for the season.

      1. Well, mostly done. After this week, it’s dry again. That doesn’t shut the fire danger down completely, though it’s definitely to be less likely at that point than it was during much of the last 4 weeks.

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