Monday November 25 2024 Forecast (7:00AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

It’s Thanksgiving week, one of the most scrutinized weather periods of the year, and we do have 2 low pressure systems to contend with this week. The good news is that they both add some needed rain to chip away at the big deficit we built since the middle of this year. The bad news is of course they impact one pre holiday travel day and the holiday itself, coming on Tuesday and Thursday, but you know the saying: beggars can’t be choosers. This is how things go this week. High pressure builds in today, shutting down the northwest breeze we still feel for a few hours this morning, and bringing plenty of sun with pleasantly cool late November air. High clouds arrive from the west later today ahead of our first approaching low pressure area. This will bring us a period of rain during the day tomorrow as the parent low heads down the St. Lawrence Valley and an occluding system develops a new low right over our area just as it’s set to exit late in the day. With the early morning low temperatures at or just below freezing in parts of southern NH, a quick onset of rain can result in a brief period of freezing rain on surfaces that cool quickly, like elevated walkways and bridges, metal ramps, etc. – so keep this in mind if you are out early in the morning in this area and it starts to rain. The system should be moving quickly enough that rain is ending about the time night is about to arrive, but some areas west of I-95 can see breaks of sun before it sets as the rain departs. Drier, chilly, breezy weather takes over at night and then the wind diminishes during Wednesday as a narrow area of high pressure builds in, providing a nice day for day-before-Thanksgiving travel and last-minute holiday related errands. The next low pressure area races our way for Thanksgiving Day. Clouds thicken up early in the day. The details of precipitation onset still have to be fine-tuned with this, as well as the storm’s track, which does have an impact on precipitation-type for parts of our region. We seem to be down to a swath of a couple hundred miles for track of low, which will pass by the region at night before exiting early Friday. A track closer to the South Coast, maybe over Cape Cod, would favor a more solid episode of rain but also some wet snow mixing in over highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH for parts of the event. A track a little further south, which takes place if the low center is a little weaker, results in slightly less precipitation but enough cold air staying over the aforementioned higher elevations for some slushy accumulation of snow – but still not all that much due to lesser precipitation. Either way, the Providence – Boston areas see a rain event, probably much of it falling between noon and midnight. A few lingering rain and snow showers can be around into early Friday before dry weather returns, with colder air arriving as winds pick up behind the departing system.

TODAY: Sunshine – some high clouds moving in from the west this afternoon. Highs 44-51. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-37 north of I-90, coldest in southern NH, and 35-42 south of I-90, mildest South Coast. Wind variable to SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy until mid afternoon with rain likely (may begin with brief freezing rain interior southern NH), then rain ending west to east with breaking clouds at day’s end. Highs 43-50 north of I-90, 51-58 south of I-90. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, shifting to W late-day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 26-33. Wind calm.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Overcast. Rain arrives west to east in the morning, may be mixed rain/snow or even a period of wet snow higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA before turning to rain. Highs 40-47. Wind calm at dawn, then E to NE increasing to 5-15 MPH later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain continues evening, tapers off overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Many clouds / intervals of sun. Passing rain/mix/snow showers possible. Highs 42-49. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

A decidedly colder pattern to end November and start December as we see a mainly northwesterly flow from Canada. A few snow showers can be around over the November 30 / December 1 weekend, and a minor system may bring brief precipitation around December 2, otherwise a generally dry pattern is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Minor systems produce a few snow (or mix) showers in a colder pattern, otherwise mostly dry. Pacific systems should be pushed south of New England in the expected pattern, but will keep an eye on anything that ends up far enough north to give a steadier precipitation threat.

65 thoughts on “Monday November 25 2024 Forecast (7:00AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank uou TK.
    6z Nam is showing its cold bias. I don’t see that happening. We could end up with about 3/4 inch of rain Thursday. Bad timing but well needed rain.

    curiously awaitng 12z runs for any changes and perhaps some more model agreement????

    Indepdent of the ocean tempaerature, the antecebant air mass is just not cold enough for snow anywhere near the coast. despite what the NAM says It is marginally cokd at best and add in the ocean temperature and forget about it.

  3. From WGC, this event took one week to unfold…

    November 24-30 1950.
    An event called “Storm of the Century” (sound familiar – there are several of these each century proving how silly the nickname is), The Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 (a MUCH better name)

    One of the most damaging and meteorologically unique storms to strike the eastern US. Intense winds buffeted the East coast into New England. New York City recorded a peak gust of 94 MPH. Newark NJ, 108 MPH. Mount Washington’s wind gusts peaked at 160 MPH. By the time the low finally drifted northward into eastern Canada, it had impacted 22 states. The death toll was 383. Over 160 (known) injuries occurred. Damage wsa $66.7 million 1950 dollars (today over $751 million). The cyclone ranks second among only 26 recorded storms to attain “Category 5” on the RSI (Regional Snowfall Index).

    1. Even though I was around for this storm,, I was so young at the time, I have no memory of this event. 🙂 Wish I did so I could share.

    1. There’s that term: “Boundary Layer”. That is so important, especially in coastal areas in late Autumn and early Winter.

      1. Current Ocean Temperature (Boston Buoy) is 50.7 degrees which is rather toasty. Just imagine a NE wind coming in off of that warm ocean. It’s a SNOW KILLER!!!!

        If we were sitting under ARCTIC Cold, perhaps it could offset that, but we are not. Period, end of discussion.

        Now if we could get the wind to back to North with some precipitation left over, just maybe we could manage a flip to snow? But honestly, I don’t see that in the cards either.
        Just too early in the season for Boston.

        Hopefully, the Ski areas up North will benefit!!!

    1. I don’t. But I also don’t think it’ll pour on you.
      I’ll be at the Woburn / Winchester game in Winchester. 🙂

      1. Middleboro/Carver in Middleborough. At least I will be mostly dry. I will be in the booth with heat. I am the PA announcer! 🙂

        Thanks, TK!

        1. That’s awesome! Are you the PA announcer for all of the games? I’d love to make it to one sometime when I’m not photographing a Woburn game.

        2. Good luck Captain! I love that you announce the games. Such a big part of the game experience. Our announcer caught onto my son’s nickname so now he calls him “Bus” when he carries the ball. Fun to hear. We have told him that if he gets a touchdown it is now called a Bus Down. 🙂

  7. 12Z NAM is cooking and “about” 1/2 way through. Curious to see what it has to say, knowing full well that at 60-84 hours it is really not in its wheelhouse. Still, it will have something to offer.

      1. A flat, fast, Colorado low in November with an unfavorable MJO, an east wind, and 50+ degree ocean water near the shore. That’s not a snow event for Boston. 🙂

  10. I am looking forward to more rain. We need the help. unfortunately I have to drive from the north shore to Plymouth and back on Thursday. Ugh!

  11. I have been the PA announcer for football games since I was 16, a junior at Mansfield High. I have announced at Middleborough High since the 2016 season when my son played as a senior. I really enjoy announcing for the kids and the town.

  12. So the 12Z GFS pretty much wants to present 2 weaker wave of low pressure, extending the inclement weather.

    Getting pretty close to the event to have so much model divergence.

    1. Its going to be such a fun experience with the models this winter, isn’t it.

      I know, I know, the ensembles …………. 🙂

    1. The thing about the European model, both op & ensembles, it’s a number of runs virtually identical. Consistency is locked.

      There’s still some wavering on all other guidance, even with them all being weaker and further south.

      While I’m still leaning toward the latter scenario, a number of time I have seen this leading up to a system, it has indeed been the ECMWF that was right all along.

  15. Fire danger definitely not gone. A new one has developed in Somerset this afternoon. Tomorrow’s rain, while helping, will not be enough to eliminate the fire threat.

      1. Some still can be burning underground .. we’ll need repeated rain events (and even more ideally a snowcover) to really put an end to it all for the year.

          1. No. It’ll take quite a few to really put an end to it. Because after the next 2 we go pretty dry again.

        3. Definitely on a different scale, but we saw that happen (fires burning underground through the winter) with the Canadian mega-fires of 2023. Several of those re-ignited in 2024, surviving an entire Canadian winter. Thankfully, while it led to an early start to Canadian fire season, conditions this summer were not on the level to bring a repeat of last year, it was a more average year.

  19. Patriots rant.

    The Patriots are short on talent but really failure to execute and self-inflicted wounds from inexcusable mistakes are to an extent coaching problems.

    Jerod Mayo is only in this role for one reason … his contract had a clause making him the heir apparent / successor to BB. Kraft asked the league to approve the clause which they did. Available coaches such as Vrabel and Harbaugh were never interviewed. I am left wondering about the head coach and other coach decisions.

    1. agree. I coukdn’t belueve the number of peanalties, many repeated by the same offender.

      Defense couldn’t stop anything. Pathetic.

      I hope Kraft gets a real coach and real OC. ha ha ha, fat chance of that and the cheap weasel won”t pay for the neceassary talent.

  20. JP that euro is for Thanksgiving day? We are up in Maine and was surprised to see that much snow. Seemed like it would be be too warm there either

  21. Thanks TK.

    After the late week system, the medium/long range pattern definitely has a cold and dry look for the Northeast, very suppressive. But, the cold is a better bet than the dry. Massive +PNA Western ridge that looks to load and re-load potentially several times through December, exactly what I talked about being needed to ebb the West Coast firehose and give the East a chance. As we know, storm systems can pop up seemingly out of nowhere. If any do decide to come together, snow is going to be favored over rain for most of SNE for the foreseeable future…

    1. I agree. I think we go dry after the 2 rain events, but may not stay that way. Kind of favoring a pattern that takes most of the Pacific systems just south, but can be on the edge, and also the return of the clippers (which have been largely absent in the types of patterns that have dominated the last few winters.

        1. Works for me. Always hoping for a Dec 9 anniversary storm.

          In case we don’t see you again, I hope you and yours have an extra special Thanksgiving

          1. Would love to see a white Christmas around here for a change. It’s been many years now (almost a decade)?

  22. Well, you stated it perfectly TK, earlier above ….

    How consistent the Euro and its ensembles have been on this Thanksgiving day system and now the 00z GFS pretty much looks like it.

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