Tuesday November 26 2024 Forecast (8:27AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

We’re now in a pattern, in contrast to the one a few days ago, where weather systems are moving much more quickly. A low pressure area will travel to our north today and while it’s occluding / maturing, a new low will form nearby as the system is getting set to exit later today. Net result: A period of rain, not too beneficial as it will be short-lived and not produce that much (mostly 0.25 inch or less). This is followed by dry weather tonight through Wednesday as a small area of high pressure builds into the region. The next storm system, born of the Pacific jet stream, will hold more moisture as it races east northeastward to wet down our Thanksgiving Day with travel-slowing but otherwise beneficial rain. This can start as a mix or wet snow in the higher elevations well northwest of Boston for a while, with some accumulation in the highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. The low center will pass just south of New England Thursday evening and be well out to sea by early Friday. That day, and Saturday, will feature mainly dry and chilly weather with a gusty breeze. I can’t rule out a passing rain/mix/snow shower in the region on Friday.

TODAY: Any early sun in eastern areas is replaced by advancing clouds. Generally cloudy with a period of rain from mid morning through mid afternoon west to east. Clouds may break mainly west of I-95 by late day. Highs 43-50 north of I-90, 50-57 to the south. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, shifting to W later in the day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 26-33. Wind calm.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Overcast. Rain arrives west to east in the morning, may be mixed rain/snow or even a period of wet snow higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA before turning to rain, but some snowfall accumulation is possible in highest elevations there. Highs 40-47. Wind calm at dawn, then E to NE increasing to 5-15 MPH later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Many clouds / intervals of sun. A passing rain/mix/snow shower possible. Highs 42-49. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Cold, dry pattern overall. Watch for a clipper type system around December 4 with some mix/snow but not likely a big storm.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Same pattern continues. On the cold, dry side, but watch for minor systems with some early season snowflakes.

69 thoughts on “Tuesday November 26 2024 Forecast (8:27AM)”

  4. Sorry about the jumble at the beginning of the detailed forecast. Editor left a chunk of old text from yesterday’s forecast there, but I erased it.

  5. Thanks, TK!

    The AD says that, unless there’s ice on field, the football game is “a-go” for Thursday morning. Taunton High vs. Milford has been moved to tomorrow night because of Thursday’s weather.

    1. I have a great picture of my dad covered in mud from a Thanksgiving game back in the 60’s. Lots of games in the area were canceled but Abington and Whitman/Hanson’s game was still on and there were thousands in attendance. Don’t get the same effect with the turf fields.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So system for Thursday is still kind of flat but closer.
    Pete last night said we were in for an inch or more of rain.
    We shall see.

  10. Thanks TK.

    A nice sunrise earlier this morning! The old saying “red” sky certainly applies.

    “Forecasting Our Future” tonight at 5:00 pm on Channel 5. It’s focused on their Winter Outlook.

    Just my gut feeling, but I get an impression by the ad that their outlook “may” not be as grim for SNE snow as Channel 4. We will see.

    1. Thanks, JJ. The Portland Gale has always fascinated me. I have a book on it. I think the title is warnings ignored or something similar

      I suspect Tom is familiar with this storm. It separated Humarock from the mainland of Scituate and then a new connection was formed my Rexhame in Tom’s neck of the woods.

      “Under normal circumstances, the Portland Gale would have gone down in history as another characteristic Nor’easter, its fierce winds and waters causing the usual damage along the coast. However, in the towns of Marshfield and Scituate, a storm surge washed away the land between Third and Fourth Cliffs, at Humarock. This cut in the beach created a new outlet to the sea, redirecting the course of the North River, and adding three miles to the length of the South River.”

      https://www.nsrwa.org/120-years-ago-portland-gale/

  14. Thanks TK.

    Going to be heading up to my mothers in Amsterdam NY for Thanksgiving tomorrow PM and will be there just in time for what appears to primarily a snow event up there. Quite the discrepancy in the models however with the Canadian giving me 1″, GFS giving 2″, and ICON 4″ (Kuchera) while the Euro gives us 10″ at 10:1.

    The mountains of VT, NH and ME should do better and I think an early season day at Killington may be in the cards Friday AM!

      1. Yes, you are correct about that. If no one gets it, I’ll share, but I am sure someone either knows it or will look it up.

        I knew it by it’s former name, but the name was changed in 1966. 🙂

        1. I only know this city by its new name because I am watching a series on Amazon Prime and this city is prominently featured in the series.

          2. Zaire used to be the country, it’s where Ebola first started unfortunately. I believe it’s now the DRC, democratic republic of Congo?

    3. For nearly 20 years now, the Tuesday before Thanksgiving has been a much heavier travel day on our roads than the day before. Yet media hasn’t really caught up to that fact yet. 🙂 Even this morning, WBZ radio and a couple local TV stations were talking about tomorrow’s commute being the worst. Nope. It’s today’s. A tractor trailer accident on the Pike didn’t help either, but that’s conditional. It can happen any day. The point is, today’s traffic will be worst of the week. 🙂

      I’ve been saying it to people since it became a fact.

      1. I agree 100%. It has always been the Tuesday before T-giving. Thursday is always the easier day.

        Tractor trailer accident is on westbound side between I290 and Charlton Plaza. They are detouring cars off the Pike.

  19. It turns out that the Thanksgiving game between Milford and Taunton is not being rescheduled due to rain, but due to “frigid temperatures”.

    I don’t even know if I want to know where they got that information, but I can speculate it came from a non-met hype master or a very misinterpreted post of a really bad computer model run made several days ago. I can pretty much rest my case now on how much of a problem these poor practices are for people like me. Atrocious.

      1. Like the one a few years ago, when it was in the teens with wind chills below zero, and most games went on as scheduled.

        THAT had a legitimate reason for reschedules, and there weren’t even that many. And I know some rain is in the forecast, but that was not mentioned as a reason for moving the game. Unless they have a field that turns to mud when it sprinkles, most of these schools can play in rain without any issues. So we know that’s not it just by what they said. Frigid temperatures? I’m speechless…

    2. https://photos.app.goo.gl/72mZ4it27ekK6LLV8

      And nope, it’s not a rumor. That is the actual message sent to my friend, who is from Milford, from the school.

      Here’s what makes this even more humorous…

      The game is being played in Taunton. The forecast temperature for the new kick off time up 6:30 PM Wednesday is 37°. The forecast temperature for the original kick off time of 10:30 AM Thursday is 46°.

      I’m just not even sure what to say here…..

      2. Warm winter with some cold shots . I think they referenced wet 2nd half . I’m not expecting a real cold winter or a snowy one but I could care less if snows or not . The benefit of being back inside at work is I could care less what the weather is .

  23. Remember 1 week ago when I swung by and said wait until internet weather weenies get their hands on the 12z ECMWF with its widespread 1-2 feet of snow from Philadelphia to Caribou for a 36 hour event late Thanksgiving into the morning of Saturday the 30th?

    It indeed sparked a lot of hype. Last Thursday there were “forecasts” for significant accumulating snow in downtown Boston. This type of weather disinformation and its ramifications has sparked good, informative discussion on this board.

    I will focus a bit more on what I saw from the ECMWF and how it could inform some of thinking going into the early weeks of meteorological winter.

    The ECMWF was indeed right to sniff out an east coast storm during this period and its more amplified solution had some early hints of a correct idea. Truth is, I was thinking flatter, colder than appears to be the likely outcome, and the ECMWF was right to oppose my thoughts. Truth is though, this set up is not conducive to big snow in SNE. No blocking high, MJO out of phase, lacking cold air, and of course closer to the coast a warm ocean.

    The ECMWF at day 7-9 was too cold, too wet, too slow, and too amped (compared too the most likely scenario) yet it evolved its solution massaging its original signal into something more reasonable, compared to the wild swings of the GFS and CMC. But that early warning signal that produced all the hype was too cold by 5 -7 degrees, too wet by 2x, and too slow by 12-18 hours. General consensus now is high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s, QPF 0.5″-1.0″ and event duration of about 12-18 hours, commencing 12-18 hours early. The ECMWF and its ensembles are the current go to, but remain weary of early op run prognostications, as the old tricks of too cold, too amped, too wet, too slow (don’t forget the backside precip love early runs always have too) are still alive and kicking for those with simple minds. (Bonus points for those who get that final turn of a phrase)

      3. In some areas, yes, in others, no. Depends on the surface and what’s under it (or not under it). There’s definitely some slippery surfaces about last night and early this morning!

    2. “Alive and Kicking” is one of my 1980s favorites, by Simple Minds. 🙂

      Great write-up here and I agree with all!

  24. sorry, didn’t get a chance to post the answer to the quiz.

    Kinshasa is in the DRC (Democratic Republic of the Congo) in Africa.
    Formerly knows as Leopoldville, named after King Leopold II of Belgium.

  25. I replied above, didn’t cheat and didn’t see your response below. I travel a lot so I find my geography to be outstanding.

      1. Ever benb tob
        Zansabar, a club in downtiwn boston. they had a map of the Congo on the wall and of course Leopoldville was on it.

        1. Yes a long time ago.

          Kinshasa has a tough past in regards to Ebola and other diseases. It was depicted somewhat in a movie I forget what it was. But we discovered with the help of the local medical folks that Ebola had started in a small village outside of Kinsasha in the late 60’s. Rather than deal with the situation we carpet bombed multiple villages in hopes of squashing it. Obviously it didn’t work but a sad history for sure.

  26. Hr 207 on the 00z GFS and hr 254 on the Euro.

    Cold pattern, trofiness or NW flow, looking for those disturbances that cut underneath us.

    Snow opportunities.

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