DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)
A nice day today as high pressure controls the weather. Watch for patches of black ice into mid morning that will melt / sublimate with the combo of rising temperature and dry enough air. A storm system is still on track to impact our Thanksgiving Day with rain and higher elevation snow (up to a few inches of wet snow possible in highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH). The low center, while intensifying, will cut across the Cape & Islands region by evening, so precipitation that moves in quickly in the morning will then tapering off in the evening. While short in duration, the storm will still deliver somewhat beneficial and needed rain, just poor timing in terms of holiday activities, but that’s how it goes sometimes! A dry and chilly pattern takes over for Friday and the weekend as we get into a northwesterly air flow out of Canada to end November and welcome December!
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 26-33. Wind calm.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Overcast. Rain arrives west to east in the morning, may be mixed rain/snow or even a period of wet snow higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA before turning to rain, but up to a few inches of snowfall accumulation is possible in highest elevations there. Highs 38-45. Wind calm at dawn, then E to NE increasing to 5-15 MPH later.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain (mix / wet snow to northwest) ending evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Patchy fog. Areas of black ice forming. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Cold, dry pattern overall. Watch for a clipper type system around December 4 with some mix/snow but not likely a big storm.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
Same pattern continues. On the cold, dry side, but watch for minor systems with some snow shower chances.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Why did Pete say last night winds gusting over 40 along the coast and then repeated by Tevin Wooten this morning. I don’t get it.
I don’t see that happening at all.
What gives?
FWIW, here is the 12Z HRRR depiction
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024112712&fh=34&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
IT has the system tracking right over Boston.
HRRR Kuchera Snow. Go North young man, go North!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112712&fh=41&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I think their “in-house” guidance had a stronger low a little further south, and they went with it. That’s what I could gather from what I saw on the weathercast (last night, didn’t see this morning).
Thank you for that. Just couldn’t figure out where that was coming from.
I presume you still do NOT agree with that?
I don’t. I think there can be some gusts along the coast as the low goes by and starts to crank up a bit but over 40? That’s a big stretch IMHMO.
Agree 100% Thank you.
Thanks Tk
Thanks TK
Ryan .,,,
Thanksgiving rainstorm on track across the state with 1/2″ to 1″ expected for most towns. Snow will fall in the higher elevations of the Berkshires, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
I hope it holds off until after I do the hingham 8am turkey trot 5k!
Best wishes for your run, Dr!
Thanks TK.
WSW posted in Maine for tomorrow. I’ll report on what actually happens. WSW says 6+ so we shall. We are near Augusta.
Hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving and please be safe!
Happy Thanksgiving. Stay safe and enjoy the snow.
Matt
️ Thanksgiving Storm Details:
Lasts most of the day.
Rain south, snow north & west, but sharp elevation differences.
A foot of snow possible in high terrain.
Gusty winds: 40+ mph on the Cape to Boston.
He said could.
Jacob had 25-35 gusts Boston and 40 on Nantucket
https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/video/next-weather-wbz-mid-morning-update-for-november-27/
Thanks TK
12z NAM Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z 3KM NAM Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks TK !
The models are playing catchup (to the Euro) on a stronger system.
Now down in the low 990s mbs.
Yes, but now coming in High and Tight
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024112712&fh=33
GFS Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Yes.
TV Programming Note:
America’s Hometown Parade in Plymouth will broadcast an encore presentation tomorrow morning at 9:00 am on Channel 5.
Ironically, if you watch the parade, just look out your window at the weather and you won’t notice the difference whether it’s a live broadcast or a rerun lol.
Some years I have watched the repeat broadcast on Thanksgiving Day and the weather conditions are radically different from the week before. It’s not bad viewing a second time imo.
TK – Can you post the website for the projected MJO phases? Is it on the NWS site?
You posted recently the MJO phases that are favorable for snow around here during the winter months and I have them written down. You mentioned that we are currently in “phase 4” NOT favorable for snow tomorrow (or anytime soon?).
Here ya go. One of them anyway
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
Thanks JPD!
Thanks, TK.
My Weekend Outlook is up:
https://stormhq.blog/2024/11/27/thanksgiving-weekend-outlook-november-28-december-2-2024/
Thanks!
18Z HRRR is still riding high and tight
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024112718&fh=29&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=hrrr
HRRR Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112718&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18Z NAM Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112718&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18z 3KM NAM Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112718&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18Z 3KM total qpf
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024112718&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
NAM qpf
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024112718&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Question. Has pressure been dropping. My 12 year old granddaughter has a nasty migraine. Well they are all nasty. But she doesn’t get them often
I don’t think so. At least my Davis equipment is reporting
steady barometer at 1014.8 mb. I suspect towards morning it will start to drop.
I thought that’s what I was finding too but am never sure. Thank you very much JPD
It was probably the rapid drying of air today. I get them from that.
JPD … NWS max wind gust forecast for Logan is 20-25 MPH Thursday evening. If they get gets above 25, they will be from the WEST, not east, after the storm pulls away.
Thanks TK.
Philip .. Re: The re-broadcast of the parade. I’m actually in the picture a few times when they pan in the direction the parade is traveling, and more frequently from great distance in shots from the helicopter, although I’d be unrecognizable in those shots. I just know where I was so I know exactly where to look.
Are you wearing something noticeable that I could look for?
Nope. Due to the weather, I look pretty drab. Black pants, dark green raincoat with hood.
I was watching Eric’s forecast. He has low 50’s on the Cape tomorrow. His wind gust forecast was really up there and I thought he was talking about easterly winds. Then I believe he said the storm was trending more northerly. I couldn’t really follow it all. I felt like he was changing his mind along the way.
Maybe I’ll watch it again when he’s up next. Maybe a glass of Cabernet will help.
I’ll have to find it. And a glass of Cabernet always helps
Darn. Can’t find Eric. But did find some help
Cheers and wishes for a special thanksgiving day, Longshot
18Z GFS Kuchera Snow, a bit more robust than the other models. Nice for Ski Areas!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112718&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
21Z HRRR, clearly showing that elevation WILL play a role
in snow accumulations.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024112721&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Snowing decently already up at Killington
https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/conditions-weather/webcam/north-ridge-cam
HAPPY THANKSGIVING ALL!!!
Nice.
Happy Thanksgiving, JpDave !!
Next week, Wednesday/Thursday.
Not big, a disturbance dropping down in the NW flow.
Consistently shown as a chance to drop some light snow in southern New England.
We’ll see if the signal moves forward into the short term range.
Happy Thanksgiving!
New post…