Thursday November 28 2024 Forecast (8:11AM)

81 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

A Happy Thanksgiving to all!! A quick-moving low pressure area gives us a stormy holiday. While not great timing in terms of holiday activities (local travel, football games), the soaking rain we see will be beneficial. It’s already moved into much of the area as patchy light rain, but will consolidate into a widespread rain area. There will be wet snow mixed in over higher elevations of far north central MA and southwestern NH, and it can snow enough here for a minor slushy accumulation, but eventually this area ends up with mainly rain as well. Low pressure that I once expected to be a little weaker and pass just south of New England will be deepening and cut right across southeastern New England by this evening, then quickly away via the Gulf of Maine overnight through Friday. Rain ends this evening and clouds break overnight. If you have late evening / overnight travel planned, watch for the formation of black ice on wet, untreated surfaces, especially outside of urban centers, where the temperature drops to near or slightly below freezing and there is not enough wind to fully dry off those surfaces. Much drier air arriving overnight and early Friday will sublimate most ice that does form, and any left will melt / evaporate as the sun rises on Friday. Friday through Monday sees us in a new, chilly and dry weather pattern, with a northwesterly flow out of Canada to end November and start December…

TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Overcast. Rain likely, but mixed with wet snow for a while in highest elevations of far north central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind calm early, then E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH possible, strongest this afternoon South Shore to Cape Cod.

THIS EVENING: Overcast with rain tapering off / ending west to east. Areas of fog forming. Temperatures steady 38-45 north of I-90 but rise to 45-52 I-90 area south. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH and gusty north of I-90, variable to W 10-20 MPH I-90 area south.

OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds / clearing. Areas of fog early. Lows 30-37, coldest inland areas north and west of Boston where patchy black ice is likely. Wind W 5-15 MPH, some higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Cold, dry pattern overall. Watch for a clipper type system around December 4 with some mix/snow but not likely a big storm.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Below normal temperatures continue. A minor system can bring snow showers mid period. A Pacific jet stream system may approach at end of period.

81 thoughts on “Thursday November 28 2024 Forecast (8:11AM)”

  1. NOTE: I broke today & tonight into 3 periods, today (daylight hours), this evening (sunset to midnight basically), overnight (midnight to dawn tomorrow). With a low center cutting across southern areas, the wind direction and speed changes a few times, so I wanted to separate the periods to better describe that in less of a jumble. I still don’t think the wind speeds get as high as some forecast we’ve seen, but up to 30 MPH gusts from the east are not out of the question along the South Shore to Cape Cod ahead of the low, and 20+ MPH gusts are pretty likely behind the departing system as the wind shifts to west, eventually more northwest as we head into Friday daytime. So while not a big wind event, the active, shifting breeze should be well-described, hence my decision above.

  2. Thank you TK and Happy Thanksgiving!

    Watched Eric and his forecast now more similar to yours though he has Cape and Islands in the 50’s. Not sure you are thinking the same.

  4. Thank TK. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

    Up in Maine and awaiting rain/ice to start then transition to heavy wet snow later. Expecting 3-6 so we shall see.

  9. Thanks TK and Happy Thanksgiving!

    It’s pounding heavy wet snow here in Amsterdam NY and I’d estimate about 2” on the ground so far. We are under a Winter Storm Warning for 5-10”. It’s caked on everything and sticking to all the trees. Beautiful scene.

  10. Thank you TK and thank you for sharing your astute meteorological knowledge with all of us on a daily basis. It’s how I start each day off reading this blog and the great commentary that comes with it. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

    1. Wishing you and Captain and all here who are at home games the best game ever. For me, it’s remembering the many Belmont /Watertown games. Go Belmont!

  16. Sometimes you get snow in the ski areas in late November but it warms up after it and the good conditions don’t last long.

    Not this time. Probably going to have packed powder conditions for a couple of weeks with nighttime snow making to further deepen bases.

    Just hope we avoid a storm like Dec 18th last year that sent 60F dew points and multi inch rains all the way to southern Canada. Never say never but my guess is we’ll avoid something that anomolous this year.

  17. Happy Thanksgiving from Mississippi.
    The front went through last night. Temperatures the next few days will be similar to yours, just about 5 degrees less cold.
    Starting the trek home Sunday. Hope to do it in 3 days.

    Eat well and be well everyone.

  18. We are in some intense banding here NW of Albany and easily in 1″ per hour snows. Probably would be 2″+ per hour if it were colder and the snow wasn’t so heavy and wet. We started briefly as light rain early this AM (before 7AM) but it has been all heavy snow since. The flakes are huge and at times the size of silver dollars.

    I took this video in the backyard about an hour ago. We are up to 4″ now:

    https://vimeo.com/1034278951?share=copy#t=0

    And here’s a shot of the front yard from earlier:

    https://imgur.com/fu2eZVs

    1. This is a very elevation dependent storm. We are at the top of the hill here in the City of Amsterdam at about 580′ elevation. Downtown along the Mohawk River they have a bit less while 4 miles up the road in Perth they are up over 6″ now. And a few miles further north in the foothills of the Adirondacks, someone just east of Sacandaga Lake had already reported 6″ at 8AM this AM. Will be interested to see the snow totals there….the SE Adirondacks looks to be the bullseye area of this storm (along with the spine of the southern Greens). Could easily end up with 12-16″ totals there.

    1. I think that may change in the next couple weeks with the cold pattern ahead. SNE could at least be in play for a few clipper systems with light snowfall and if we can get lucky enough to have one dig under us, maybe a bit more…

  20. Long live the Euro! Glad to see she is back. Hopefully this continues through the winter. Euro sniffed this northeast snowstorm threat out nearly 10 days ago and has been fairly consistent modeling it throughout while the other models had been all over the place. Granted it showed 1-2 feet of snow at one point along the coastal plain but as long as people understand it has a tendency to overamp things and have a cold bias in the long range, it could be a very usable tool this winter. Just being able to sniff out storm threats at that time range is all you can ask for, and then you can work out the details as you get closer.

      1. Agree no major storms but just looking at the 12z GFS, three light snow threats through mid December and one off shore miss so there are chances for at least something. Its a fast flow northern stream dominated pattern that is dry and cold overall for sure but we will have some chances to get “whitened” I think. Might even get a bit more if we can get one of those clippers to dig a little and develop quickly as it hits those warm ocean waters and travels SE of us.

        1. Could be. We shall see.

          I love a clipper that redevelops just South of Long Island and explodes and dumps a quick foot on us. Nothing like it, except they don’t happen all that often. Haven’t seen one of those in some time.

    1. One of my favorite parts of holidays is seeing folks we havnt seen in a while posting. A very happy Thanksgiving to you Also. Thank you !

  22. Snowing hard on all the Stratton webcams:

    https://www.stratton.com/the-mountain/webcams

    Opening day there slated for Sunday. Last couple of years we have gone there for opening day the day after Thanksgiving but they had to push it to Dec 1 this year due to all the recent warm temps and not having consistent snowmaking windows.

    We are planning on doing Killington tomorrow AM instead…they just dropped the ropes for top to bottom skiing about an hour ago 🙂

      1. Someone needs to wipe down that North ridge cam!

        They are reporting 6″ so far. Should be able to open a few more natural snow trails tomorrow with 20″ reported now on the upper mountain in the past 7 days. And counting….

  23. Yesterday’s weather here was interesting. 40’s and occasional drizzle all day. Left to return to the hotel at 530p. Temperatures was 59 and humid feeling. 3 hours later the cold front came charging through with a couple of heavy showers and then breezy and down to 50 when I walked my dog at 9pm.
    Correct my if I’m wrong, but isn’t this an example of an occlusion….or as close as you can get to a perfect one?

  24. A couple of viewing options if interested.

    Completed watching the Series The Widow on Prime. Outstanding!!! Stars Kate Beckinsale

    Last night we watched a movie called: Just Henry
    Excellent movie. I highly recommend it.

    Both were on Amazon Prime and free with subscription.

  25. 12Z Euro, way out there…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024112812&fh=360&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2024112812&fh=360&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Something to watch as I believe it had the same feature last evening.

    Yep
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024112800&fh=360&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    And the one before that as well

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024112712&fh=372&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full

  26. I don’t see where to post the snow predictions for this season, so given that, I’ll take a stab here. Based more on gut feelings and a bit of science, plus adding in the current dry trend, here goes:

    Boston: 27.4 inches
    Providence: 21.2 inches
    Hartford: 26.7 inches
    Worcester: 35.1 inches

    I am predicting another SUCKY snow season, but a tad better than the last 2. 🙂

    Hope I am DEAD Wrong!!!

    1. I’ll get that re-organized in the next couple days. I have to create a new section.

      Basically just gonna make the deadline the end of November at this point.

      HINT: I think you’re too low with your #’s. 😉

      1. Well, I sincerely hope you are correct and I won’t feel bad one bit if mine are too low. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        We shall see. Frankly, I’d love to see another 2015 snow blitz!! But I know that Ain’t happening any time soon, if ever again. 🙂

  28. I recorded your predictions JPD. TK Also added concord nh. Do you want one for there.

    If anyone else has shared, I missed it so please repost. As always I will always respond that I’ve recorded.

  30. Snow is dumping at Killington and they are reporting
    10 inches for the last 24 hours.

    Early-season conditions exist, and skiing and snowboarding is on advanced terrain only. There is no beginner terrain available.

    Base-Depth

    12″
    24 Hour

    10″
    48 Hour

    10″
    7 Day

    24″
    Total

    24″

  34. I think 5″ is going to do it here in Amsterdam NY. The snow was so heavy and wet and it was above freezing all day so the snow was compacting and melting at the bottom because of the warmer ground. Way more than that actually fell from the sky and it probably would have been twice as much if it fell at night and was about 3 or 4 degrees colder. Its been snowing a bit harder the past hour and the surface temp is dropping as it gets dark so what I shoveled is starting to get covered up again. But its about to end. Going to be a lot of black ice in the morning.

  35. Killington up to 13″ on the day and 27″ on the week, and still snowing hard. I think it is going to be a mob scene there in the AM with still only a few lifts open and no other resorts in central/southern VT open yet. We are planning to get there early.

      1. The high end amount is 71″ and the low end is 34″. I would like a “low end” snow forecast of 34″ just once in my life 🙂

          1. It’s going to be a real close call…..feet of heavy snow just to the south and virtually nothing to the north.

      2. It seems to me that trying to predict lake effect snow is a whole different ballgame from what we see around here. Very small differences in location and other variables could result in hugely different outcomes – chaos in action.

        Watertown : 61″
        Clayton: 8″

        Those two locations are just 20 miles apart.

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