DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)
Today is the transition day to a chilly, dry pattern for the weekend and early next week as a west northwesterly air flow becomes established across the area. But today there are a few subtle things to talk about that impact the short-term forecast. The first is any lingering black ice from last night, which will be largely melted / sublimated by the time this blog is posted, so that’s rapidly becoming a non-factor. There are patchy stratocumulus clouds working into the region from the west, but they tend to be drying out with a downslope effect of the winds coming off the mountains to our west. A few of these can survive and a few fair weather clouds can develop to interrupt the sun briefly at times today. A little later, more clouds may appear as a weak disturbance approaches from the west in a broad cyclonic flow across the region. Also, ocean-effect rain showers are present in the waters off the South Coast, and a few of these may be able to develop closer to Martha’s Vineyard and/or Nantucket as the day goes on, so I can’t rule out a sprinkle of rain there and with the aforementioned disturbance a brief rain/snow shower in the hills northwest of Boston late in the day. Otherwise, it’s a dry day for most. Saturday through Tuesday will feature dry weather and below normal temperatures.
TODAY: Sun / patchy clouds. Remote chance of a brief rain shower South Coast especially Islands. Remote chance of a rain/snow shower northwest hills late day. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Fast-moving low pressure passes close by early in the period with a brief snow/mix/rain threat, otherwise a pattern of mainly dry weather and generally below normal temperatures will be dominant.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
We’ll have to watch for 1 or 2 potential unsettled weather threats during this period that bring rain/mix/snow chances.
From WGC…
November 27-29 1932: Strong, long-lasting onshore winds are not good for the maintenance of sandy, coastal beaches. Constant 30 MPH northeasterly winds swept over the Jacksonville FL area beaches for 3 days, resulting in severe beach erosion amounting to a vertical loss of as much as 3 to 5 feet! Erosion extended as far inland as 75 feet! Cottages, docks, piers, and bulkheads were destroyed.
Thanks TK. Ended up around 2-3 inches
TK, thank you. Seems like a dry spell through 1st week of December.
Thanks TK !
Good morning and thank you TK.
I saw Logan Only hit 0.74 inch of rain, but it only really rained for 6-7 hours and that was it.
Fast and flat. That system didn’t really start winding up until it left the area. The only difference from the thinking a couple days before was the low center itself was further north and a couple millibars deeper. Note the lack of wind overall yesterday…
Hardly any wind out my way, even though Logan had some wind.
Killington is reporting a storm total of 21 inches Just what the doctor ordered snowing there now.
And nice cold weather coming up, and persisting, gonna let them get their best base down and solidify it.
Indeed. Just what they needed to get this season cranking.
The snow fell in the right places. 🙂
Thanks Tk . Vicki did you get my 18.5 snow prediction for Boston , thank you .
I did not. Is Boston only one you are predicting?
Recorded.
Thank you , hope you had a nice thanksgiving
Yes please if that’s ok .
I’m 75% done with the winter outlook. I’ve only been able to write short segments in the last couple of weeks, balancing with everything else. But it’s ALMOST there. I still have all the same ideas now that I had going into it, so at least I haven’t had to re-write anything…
GFS snow chance????
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024112906&fh=306&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Need to change the track some, but something to watch. Ahead of this a few clipper systems track too far North with some snow to rain.
Here is the GFS Kuchera snow going out 16 days:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112906&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Really looking good for Ski country.
EURO 10:1 snow through 14-15 days
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024112900&fh=360&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
GFS remarkable inconsistency continues.
I’m basically not paying attention to operational runs beyond day four or five.
Thanks TK
Some of the lake effect snow totals that we see during the next two weeks will be among the higher totals we have observed throughout the years.
Thanks TK
Watertown, NY live web cam. Although it is clearly snowing, no great shakes here yet.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=watertown+ny+web+cam#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:526e1a20,vid:pv2ZuYu404c,st:0
So far, the bulk of the lake effect snow is South of Buffalo
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBUF/standard