Friday November 29 2024 Forecast (8:21AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Today is the transition day to a chilly, dry pattern for the weekend and early next week as a west northwesterly air flow becomes established across the area. But today there are a few subtle things to talk about that impact the short-term forecast. The first is any lingering black ice from last night, which will be largely melted / sublimated by the time this blog is posted, so that’s rapidly becoming a non-factor. There are patchy stratocumulus clouds working into the region from the west, but they tend to be drying out with a downslope effect of the winds coming off the mountains to our west. A few of these can survive and a few fair weather clouds can develop to interrupt the sun briefly at times today. A little later, more clouds may appear as a weak disturbance approaches from the west in a broad cyclonic flow across the region. Also, ocean-effect rain showers are present in the waters off the South Coast, and a few of these may be able to develop closer to Martha’s Vineyard and/or Nantucket as the day goes on, so I can’t rule out a sprinkle of rain there and with the aforementioned disturbance a brief rain/snow shower in the hills northwest of Boston late in the day. Otherwise, it’s a dry day for most. Saturday through Tuesday will feature dry weather and below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Sun / patchy clouds. Remote chance of a brief rain shower South Coast especially Islands. Remote chance of a rain/snow shower northwest hills late day. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Fast-moving low pressure passes close by early in the period with a brief snow/mix/rain threat, otherwise a pattern of mainly dry weather and generally below normal temperatures will be dominant.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

We’ll have to watch for 1 or 2 potential unsettled weather threats during this period that bring rain/mix/snow chances.

64 thoughts on “Friday November 29 2024 Forecast (8:21AM)”

  1. From WGC…

    November 27-29 1932: Strong, long-lasting onshore winds are not good for the maintenance of sandy, coastal beaches. Constant 30 MPH northeasterly winds swept over the Jacksonville FL area beaches for 3 days, resulting in severe beach erosion amounting to a vertical loss of as much as 3 to 5 feet! Erosion extended as far inland as 75 feet! Cottages, docks, piers, and bulkheads were destroyed.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I saw Logan Only hit 0.74 inch of rain, but it only really rained for 6-7 hours and that was it.

    1. Fast and flat. That system didn’t really start winding up until it left the area. The only difference from the thinking a couple days before was the low center itself was further north and a couple millibars deeper. Note the lack of wind overall yesterday…

    1. And nice cold weather coming up, and persisting, gonna let them get their best base down and solidify it.

          1. It is absolutely ok. There isn’t a tab yet so I was not sure if you knew what other cities TK had suggested.

            Thanks for making sure I saw it. Please to everyone….i can easily miss predictions so if I don’t confirm, I’d appreciate a shout out

        1. You are not required to guess for all cities. So doing just Boston is fine. Just means you can’t “win” for the others, obviously. 🙂

  7. I’m 75% done with the winter outlook. I’ve only been able to write short segments in the last couple of weeks, balancing with everything else. But it’s ALMOST there. I still have all the same ideas now that I had going into it, so at least I haven’t had to re-write anything…

  8. GFS snow chance????

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024112906&fh=306&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Need to change the track some, but something to watch. Ahead of this a few clipper systems track too far North with some snow to rain.

    Here is the GFS Kuchera snow going out 16 days:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024112906&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Really looking good for Ski country.

    EURO 10:1 snow through 14-15 days

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024112900&fh=360&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. GFS remarkable inconsistency continues.
      I’m basically not paying attention to operational runs beyond day four or five.

  10. Some of the lake effect snow totals that we see during the next two weeks will be among the higher totals we have observed throughout the years.

  16. Recall some months ago I mentioned that CPC has a warm bias that was starting to cause issues, because there have been more corrections needed after they issue long range outlooks that have above normal temps over the entire country.

    For alot of the autumn, they had to fix those to show colder weather in the West. And now they have to fix them to show colder weather in the East. But at least they’re being fixed.

    Colder times ahead for the Northeast! Hope your outdoor decorations are all done by this weekend!

    Mine are 95% done – I have 2 doorways to decorate today/tomorrow. Inside decorating marathon also underway… 🙂

      2. At times, yes. At times, no. Initially, not “big” storms. Actually my favorite type of December pattern is several small events. It makes it festive without major interruptions and damage issues that come with larger events.

  17. I would rather have a front end winter.
    My snow winter guess is 39″ for pvd. 53″ northwest Providence county. Hopefully I’m wrong

    1. Sorry Robert.

      Predictions are for Boston, providence, Hartford, Worcester, concord NH. I recorded yours for providence. You can predict as many or as few as you want but Do you want to predict any others.

  20. Dave, we are here at Killington and they are dropping ropes left and right. The natural snow trails are amazing but oh my god the lines! Waited 30 min in a line in the parking lot just to get on the shuttle to the lodge and another 30 in the gondola line. North Ridge quad was a 15 min wait. They finally just opened the Snowden six lift which is spreading the people out. Killington is the only area open yet in central/southern VT so everyone and their brother are here with all the fresh snow. 21” new at the summit.

    1. So Sorry about the waits. That is the main reason I stopped Skiing. I couldn’t stand paying all that money to wait around it lift lines. It was/is OUTRAGEOUS!!!!

      Hope you have a great time!!! Enjoy!

      1. Thanks. It’s not normally like this but was fully expecting it. It’s worth the wait though. Much better now too now that they opened pretty much all of Snowden Mountain.

        1. Awesome! I used to ski mostly Snowden with occasional forays to Killington Peak. 🙂

          Sounds like you are having a good time.

  21. Few flurries in the Adirondacks this afternoon, but in Lake Placid the sun is out at the moment and it’s a balmy 30 degrees. Lowell takes on St. Lawrence at 4pm, then Providence plays Clarkson at 7:30.. We flip partners tomorrow with Providence/St Lawrence at 4pm, and Lowell/Clarkson at 7:30.

    I cannot begin to express how stoked I am to see a game in this arena. Bucket List item for sure.

    1. Enjoy the games!

      I was going to Clarkson during the Lake Placid Olympics. I saw a pre-olympic game there between the U.S. and Soviet Union. It was amazing!

      After the game, a NY trooper went onto the ice to say that there were dangerous road conditions because of freezing rain. I was heading back to the Albany area for the winter break and had to go over some higher elevations. At one point, no one was able to make it up a hill. I parked on the shoulder of the road. It was so slippery that my 1970 Dodge Dart continued sliding downhill after I parked it. I got out and asked the people behind be to move back a little because my car was on its way toward them. It finally settled against the guardrail and we waited for a sander/salter to go past.

    2. I saw that you snagged a puck literally under a minute into the game. Well-done! Another item for the SAK hockey collection. 🙂

      Enjoy the games!

  24. I am not sure I’m correct. But I think today may be Philips birthday.

    Happy birthday. I hope your day is special.

  26. I’ve posted the winter forecast as a regular post. I’ll re-posted under its own tab later. Check it out and pardon any typos. I wrote it over about 8 sessions, some of them when I was only half awake, and have yet to fully proof-read it. 🙂

    I’ll also create a new tab to record the snow predictions in this weekend, and then we can finalize our guesses for the contest. With that in mind, the “deadline” is not a hard one really, just try to get them in in the day or two after I announce the creation of the tab. 🙂

    Writing the daily forecast blog now…

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