Saturday November 30 2024 Forecast (8:37AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Watch for some areas of black ice where “‘unscheduled” snow showers occurred with some light accumulations late last night, mainly to the west and northwest of Boston. These snow showers were a product of an advective inversion that formed some clouds and produced just enough lift to squeeze out some moisture into the air cold enough for snowflakes. They were not in anybody’s forecast. This is a good reminder that even with our “very good” short range guidance, we can still sometimes miss short-term events. Any icy areas will sublimate / melt / dry quickly during this morning. This last day of November will be a dry and chilly one with a gusty breeze as we sit in a northwesterly air flow, and this will be the theme tomorrow as well to round out the Thanksgiving Weekend. We may see a few more high and/or mid level clouds tomorrow due to a disturbance passing to our south. The dry and chilly pattern will continue early next week. By Wednesday, a clipper-type low pressure area diving through the Great Lakes will move quickly our way and bring the first general snowfall threat of the season by evening. This is highly unlikely to end up anything more than a minor event, but some accumulation of snow is a solid potential, and even a light coating will cause slippery travel conditions, but this is at the end of the 5-day forecast period so plenty of time to do the obvious fine-tuning.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Chance of snow (except rain or snow coastal areas) late-day or nighttime. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Low pressure departs and windy/cold weather follows early in the period. High pressure builds in with cold but more tranquil weather after that.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

2 potential storm systems to watch as we head to mid December. Climatology says greatest chance of snow will be inland areas, but will take a closer look with the real-time set-up as we get closer.

44 thoughts on “Saturday November 30 2024 Forecast (8:37AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    GREAT job with your Winter forecast. It is obvious that much effort was put forth and we appreciate it very much! THANK YOU!

    I hope you predictions come true.

  10. Thanks TK.

    Thanks Vicki for your birthday wishes yesterday! I just got around to reading it. 🙂

    I received a nice, delicious cupcake with a “Happy Birthday” balloon attached complements of the staff here. They keep track of everyone’s birthday. 🙂

  13. Just under 40 at 39.8. So it looks like 40 will do it for us today.
    Getting there. Ocean is still 50, though. 🙂

  14. Thanks TK and Happy belated birthday Philip!

    Great job with the winter forecast TK. The more and more I read on, the more dismal it sounded for snow prospects this winter. Sounds like we may be dealing with a lot of mild air intrusions and some unfavorable indices for cold/snow from Jan-Mar. So I would gladly take the 50-60″ for Hartford if we can pull it off.
    This would actually be above normal for the area.

  15. My gut tells me that this is going to be a much better snow year than the last three as we have had some really good winters in a weak La Nina phase and we are overdue. That said, the stats show that extremely dry Falls lead to crappy snow winters and I think December is going to continue the dry trend, essentially wasting the cold air. By the time we get to January and beyond, indices become less favorable yielding more mild air intrusions from periods of SE ridging and Pacific flow across the country. Thus, I am going reverse psychology with my snow guesses this year and going lower with the hopes that it conjures up the snow Gods!

    Boston: 32.1 inches
    Providence: 28.9 inches
    Hartford: 42.1 inches
    Worcester: 58.5 inches

    1. I really feel like Boston / south will have another Warner & below average snow season ., of course this is just a hunch nothing more . I would love to have one or two big ones . It would be nice to have a heavy snow cover for Christmas ( but storm before Christmas not on !

  16. 29 degrees and frost on the grass this morning. Olive Branch is about 10 miles south of Memphis.
    Thanks for the detailed winter outlook TK.
    Amazing detail and large amount of work.

  24. So far….45″ of snow in Barnes Corner, NY as of 2:30PM today (reported by local news media). And they are still parked under a very intense snow band with many more hours to go. This town is SE of Watertown in the northern Tug Hill Plateau. This is the highest total I have seen thus far.

  25. I know many on here are thinking dismal but I am very much not, this year is going to be better than the last few years for sure. Winter 2013-2014 is probably one of my favorite analog seasons. I will post my numbers once I am done with my last map for my winter predictions. I been reading up on some of the things that Eric Webb has been talking about with the TNH pattern and EPO thats in a rather favorable set up for this upcoming season. Then there is the case that since I am not going to be there at all this winter that its going to be one of the better years

  26. Tonight I am on Long Island and it feels like the coldest night of year – strong brisk wind. I am going to get into the snow predictions for the first time. After reading TJs winter forecast I just feel
    Like it’s a “don’t buck the trend” winter. I am predicting the warm ocean will still have an effect on the ability of precip to be of the frozen variety.

    Boston: 25.2
    Worcester : 30.5
    Providence: 21,2
    Hartford: 28.2
    Concord NH: 40.4

    And Padanaram Village: 6.2 inches

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