Thursday December 5 2024 Forecast (7:14AM)

102 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Late last night I made the remark “I don’t think anybody will see any surprises with this one” in the comments and then had a nervous sense of worry after I sent it. Two surprises of sorts: 1) A rain/snow line that made it further east sooner, allowing minor accumulating snow into the I-95 belt. 2) A heavier 3 to 5+ inch accumulation bullseye in parts of south central MA to northeastern CT. This part of the system still has one more swath of snow and rain to throw across the area this morning before it moves out of the region. Most of the pavement / cement surfaces should be able to be cleared, melt off, or be treated before temperatures drop tonight. But the cold front triggering that temperature drop can produce some convective showers this afternoon – mainly in the form of snow with some rain possibly mixed in further east and south at first. These should be brief in any one area, but even briefly heavy snow showers can coat the ground and set up slippery conditions into this evening with falling temperatures. Many surfaces can be dried off by wind before freeze-up, pending snow shower details. But keep all this in mind if you have to travel by car or on foot this evening. The cold air that settles in hangs around Friday and Saturday. Most Great Lakes snow showers should make it only to about the mountains to our west, but I can’t rule out a few making it into the WHW forecast area, especially Saturday with the help of a weak disturbance passing through. Then the large scale set-up shifts around late in the weekend and to start next week as the upper level flow shifts to the west then southwest. Sunday, a low pressure area passing quickly to our north will send a warm front through the region and this can generate a period of snow with some minor accumulation in the early morning hours. The balance of Sunday will feature fair weather with a notable moderation in temperature. The milder weather continues Monday and a strong low pressure area passing to our west later in the day will send a surge of moisture our way in the form of rain.

TODAY: Cloudy this morning with additional snow/mix except mix/rain southeastern MA/RI – some minor additional snow accumulation expected. Variably cloudy this afternoon with passing snow and rain showers, a few of which can be briefly heavy with quick minor accumulation in snow showers. Highs 38-45, but a quick temperature drop west to east later on. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, shifting to SW increasing to 5-15 MPH midday then NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts from west to east this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill as low as 10.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 29-36. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill as low as 20.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 29-36. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds dominate. A chance of light snow overnight, favoring areas near and north of I-90. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds and lingering snow flurries followed by sunshine. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain arrives during the afternoon or evening. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Above normal temperatures December 10-11, with one more low pressure system to deliver rain during that period of time, favoring December 11. Fair, seasonably colder weather returns mid to late period behind that system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)

More of a west to northwest flow and variable but mostly seasonable temperatures expected during this period with what appear to be minor precipitation threats early and again late in the period.

102 thoughts on “Thursday December 5 2024 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  1. 0.3 inch (so far) in Woburn. The last batch to come through may add a small amount to that.

  2. Thanks TK !

    A trace of snow in eastern Marshfield and a coating on the west side of town, up by the school complex.

    Raw, nasty, cold sprinkle/wet snow flake mix now.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    woke up at 4 AM to find it snowing decently. Not doing much now, bot a real healthy coating of .25 to .5 inch. on the ground.

  4. Thanks TK
    Too bad this wasn’t 20 days from now as it would have been a White Christmas for my area. I am going to enjoy this before the snow goes away in a few days.

  6. I don’t recall if the last 2 winters we had an event that played out a little colder than modeled.

    Perhaps a positive sign for the next 3-5 months.

  7. Light, light coating on grassy surfaces in Swampscott. It was nice to see the coating on trees in the Xmas tree lot.

    Went to supermarket early and the footing was slick in parking lot.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK! Excellent forecast.
    I seem to be in the bullseye you mentioned here In Sturbridge. I have exactly 6” on the ground and coming down moderately, and I’m without power since 6:45am.

  11. Thanks, TK

    33 degrees at 6 am with 0.38 in the bucket. Enough snow in Taunton that I needed the snow broom to clear the car windows and roof.

  12. Thanks Captain. I do have a generator but limited to what I can run, just the essentials but that’s all I need.

  14. Once the snow ends the wind will be the weather story. With this wet snow clinging to the trees and power lines I would not be surprised to see those power outage numbers go up.

  18. This snow is an absolute TREAT!!! and rather unexpected, if you ask me. I’ll take it!! 🙂
    Really coming down here!!!

  21. Snowing at a very good clip here in the Boro. Kids think that they’re going home early! Ha! 🙂

  27. They just changed school from three hour delay to cancellation due to “an overproducing storm, hazardous road conditions and trees and wires down across town”

    One of the wires was hanging so low across the road in front of our neighbors house that an Amazon truck just hit it going by

    1. Multiple snow squall warnings out west in parts of PA NJ and in parts of the Hudson River Valley of NY

  29. Mark in my town the same thing happened. It started as a three hour delay. This happened in other parts of CT!

  30. Something funky is going on.

    The conditions do NOT match with this WPC surface map

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    This almost looks like redevelopment on warm front to our south and NOT to our North?

    What gives. This is strange to say the least.

  32. We had a burst of at least moderate with silver dollar size snow flakes. It thickened the coating on the ground.

    It has since tapered off.

  34. Good morning and thank you,TK

    I’m just getting going but measured just shy of 2 inches. I suspect more as there is a fair amount of melting.

        1. It’s deceiving. I took a ton of measurements BUT that wasn’t till 10:00 and some had melted. So I’m sure there was more actual snow than 2”

  35. An even 1.0″ on the deck here at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound.

    As I mentioned late last night, the HRRR absolutely nailed this event. All day, I saw it showing the rain/snow line come crashing toward the coast around 2-4am, and every time I ignored it because it didn’t make sense with southwest winds at the surface and warmer air moving in aloft, but it absolutely nailed it when most of the guidance did not.

    HRRR loop from yesterday’s 18z run: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024120418&fh=loop&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

    10:1 snow map from yesterday’s 18z HRRR, showing the 3-6″ band from NE CT into SW NH: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024120418&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

  36. Sun is out now!!!

    I learned something about my radar Scope app.

    When I have it on loop, it just loops up to the point the app was opened. IT does not auto refresh, or at least I don’t have some option set. Oh well, live and learn.

    I will have to figure that one out for sure, as I will be on
    SNOW SQUALL WATCH for later.

    You know what, Now that we had this surprise SNOW, I’ll
    be there won’t even be a flurry, let alone a squall, when
    the front goes through.

    1. This one time I hope there won’t be that snow squall as I have to travel back home from my afternoon medical appointment. Those squalls can produce slippery conditions on sidewalks once temperatures drop.

    1. So far, I see NOTHING indicating squalls on radar
      Except way out there between Albany and Syracuse.
      Those could be Lake Effect streamers and not our squalls.
      ????????

  42. Thanks, TK.

    I had to clean off the car to venture out at 6:45, but the driving itself wasn’t a problem.
    So much prettier than rain!

  46. Vicki just some snow showers that did not accumulate. South of me I am sure got a quick half inch of snow.

    1. Snow squall warning now for the east slopes of the Berkshires. Watch out eastern MA thereafter.

      We might get into some action here in northern CT as well. I am now at our office on the 15th floor of the Gold Building in Hartford (we moved here from Manchester in September) and should have a good view looking west towards Avon Mtn at whatever is incoming!

      1. The scene is Downtown Hartford by the way is a far cry from the scene at my house this AM. Maybe an inch of snow on the grass/rooftops here and the City streets/sidewalks are largely bare.

  49. Dark now to the west and southeast looking out from out building in Hartford and the squall over southern CT misses us to the south and the activity to the west approaches.

  50. Partly sunny, breezy, and getting cold. Interesting that the cold air that got drawn down beat out the SW winds … I guess that’s what happened.

    I hope this helped in some small way with the drought. Take anything we can get.

    2. On the link for wrightsville beach surfchex webcam is a link for Pistol River, Oregon webcam.

      Ocean looks normal at the moment.

  52. squalls seem to be lessening and what there is is heading SE. my prediction No squall or snow shower for Boston.

  55. Squall back home in Coventry right now but what came thru Hartford pretty much fell apart. Pitch black out to the east though looking towards home.

  56. JPD .. the reason for heavier snow to the west and some snow closer to the coast despite the south wind is explained by precipitation intensity and air that was cold enough aloft to overcome the warming of the boundary layer.

    This time, all the short term forecasts, where victims of the “only one model got it right” syndrome. HRRR was ignored by everybody as the outlier, and it turns out it was the only piece of guidance that had the correct solution.

  58. TK – Did low pressure (unexpectedly) form south of us which allowed the colder air push further south?

    Is the lesson here…pay closer attention to the HRRR going forward?

    1. The low pressure are was exactly where expected. The cold came from above – precipitation intensity.

  59. Great Blue Hill = 1.8”
    Boston (Logan) = T

    JPD, did you possibly get some “measurable” snowfall out your way? 🙂

  61. Latest CPC outlook has above to well above normal temperatures throughout most of the nation and below normal precipitation especially in the east through December 19th.

    Not a good sign for a White Christmas… anywhere. 🙁

  63. TK – Was the south wind too “light” to overcome the precipitation intensity plus cold air aloft? If the wind was stronger, would the original forecast been on schedule?

    I saw your response above to JPD.

    1. Only if it had been a more dynamic system with much stronger warm advection. I think this was a done deal with the intensity.

Comments are closed.